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Rod Dreher gets Sarah Palin right

Ryan Streeter
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I share with Rod Dreher a deep appreciation for the local and small over the global and big. When I held a reading group in my home with fellow conservatives and we read Rod's Crunchy Con book, I found myself defending organic farming and homeschooling against the aspersions a few of my friends generously threw Rod's way.

So it's not a big surprise to hear him defending these remarks today at his new blog over at The American Conservative:

This [big business's tactics] is not the capitalism of free men and free markets, of innovation and hard work and ethics, of sacrifice and of risk. It's the collusion of big government and big business and big finance to the detriment of all the rest — to the little guys. It’s a slap in the face to our small business owners — the true entrepreneurs, the job creators accounting for 70 percent of the jobs in America.

What is surprising (or not, if you follow her) is that they are Sarah Palin's words.

Rod writes, "Maybe Palin would do more good for American politics by staying out of the race and becoming the sort of independent activist suggested by these remarks."

I agree. Her base of support will be too small if she runs, and she will be too polarizing, but if she rises above politics and stays on this theme, she might actually attract people to her cause who have been reluctant to support her this far. The only caveat I'd add is that her polarizing nature stems more from her tone and posture than what she says, and if that doesn't change, she may have a hard time building a movement as an activist.

Still, it's good to have someone defending the little guy against the big and well-connected.

And it's good to have Rod blogging again.

Looks like twilight for Sarah Palin: Tea Partiers and just about everyone else says “don’t bother running in 2012”

Ryan Streeter
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Is it too late for Sarah Palin to get into the race? Pundits will disagree.

But, according to yesterday’s Fox poll, voters have begun to move on and would answer the question another way: Who cares, because she shouldn’t run anyway.

While the immediate headline from the poll was that Perry had overtaken Romney in a big way as the frontrunner, the more unexpected finding was just how broad-based the opposition to a Palin candidacy was.

Most interesting was that two-thirds of Tea Partiers thought Palin should not run. And nearly 80% of women said she should not run.

Here are the percentages of people who said that Sarah Palin should not run:

• Republicans:           71%
• Democrats:             80%
• Independents:         66%
• Tea Party:                66%
• Men:                        71%
• Women:                   77%
• White:                      72%
• Non-white:               81%
• College degree:       76%
• No college:               72%
• Under 35:                 74%
• Age 35-54:               73%
• Age 55+:                   75%
• Age 65+:                   76%
• Under $50k:              72%
• $50k+:                       76%
• Liberals:                    77%
• Moderates:                75%
• Conservative:            72%

These final numbers are most illuminating. Normally, in such polls, there is a pretty big difference between the views of liberals and conservatives. But in the case of Sarah Palin, there’s more agreement among liberals and conservatives than one might think that Sarah Palin should just stop now.

It’s just one poll. But the writing is on the wall: don’t run, Sarah. Your day has passed.

Citing "continual lying" by event organizers, Sarah Palin put Iowa appearance "on hold"

Natalie Gonnella
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Christine O'Donnell's invite (or disinvite) is no longer the only conundrum facing event organizers at Tea Party America, as Sarah Palin officially puts her highly anticipated appearance at the group's Indianola rally 'on hold'.  As the WSJ reports:

[A] person close the former Alaska governor...cited “continual lying” from event organizers at Tea Party of America, including a recent mixup over whether former U.S. Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell of Delaware would also speak...The former governor will now appear at a Friday event in Des Moines sponsored by the group Conservatives4Palin. It is currently scheduled for 8 p.m. at The Machine Shed Restaurant, though the location will probably have to be changed, the person close to Ms. Palin said. Ms. Palin is still scheduled to appear at a Tea Party Express tour stop Monday in New Hampshire.

Ms. Palin may still hold an event Saturday, the person said, though she has no firm plans. It’s also possible she could still attend the Indianola tea party rally, the person said.

The former governor’s team decided to back out Tuesday night after rally organizers re-invited Ms. O’Donnell to speak on stage. Organizers had booked Ms. O’Donnell, who lost her 2010 bid for a U.S. Senate seat from Delaware, to speak but quickly withdrew the invitation in an effort to avoid controversy.

Cain tops Perry to take Colorado straw poll

Natalie Gonnella
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As Americans await the outcome of ongoing debt negotiations, in other political news from across the country Herman Cain has claimed the top spot in the latest conservative conference straw poll.

Earning nearly half the ballots cast at the Western Conservative Summit in Denver, the Georgia businessman trumped his GOP competition, with undeclared candidate Rick Perry finishing a very distant second.  According to Politico's Haberman & Burns:

Herman Cain easily won the Western Conservative Summit presidential straw poll Sunday, drawing 246 ballots out of 508 cast and beating his nearest runner-up by a 179-vote margin.

Second-place contender Rick Perry took 67 votes, or 13 percent, to Cain's 48 percent. In third place was Rick Santorum with 50 ballots, or just under 10 percent,

In addition to Perry, the survey also included other unconfirmed candidates like former Ambassador John Bolton, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan.

As well as appearing in the straw poll, Perry also featured as the event's keynote speaker on Friday night.

The full results of the Western Conservative Summit Straw Poll are included below.

Michele Bachmann -- 9 percent, 44 votes
John Bolton -- 4 percent, 20 votes
Herman Cain -- 48 percent, 246 votes
Newt Gingrich -- 1 percent, 3 votes
Rudy Giuliani -- 0 percent, 0 votes
Jon Huntsman -- 0 percent, 1 vote
Gary Johnson -- 0 percent, 1 vote
Thaddeus McCotter -- 0 percent, 2 votes
Sarah Palin -- 1 percent, 5 votes
Ron Paul -- 2 percent, 12 votes
Tim Pawlenty -- 1 percent, 7 votes
Rick Perry -- 13 percent, 67 votes
Mitt Romney -- 10 percent, 49 votes
Rick Santorum -- 10 percent, 50 votes
Paul Ryan -– 1 vote

Poll: Bachmann takes the lead as conservatives remain skeptical about Romney

Natalie Gonnella
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She may suffer from migraines, but at the moment Michele Bachmann certainly isn't suffering in the polls. In a new 2012 survey from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, the Minnesota Congresswoman has now "taken first place by the smallest of margins on PPP's newest national Presidential poll."  According to the latest analysis:

Bachmann's rise has been fueled by her appeal to voters on the far right- and their skepticism about Romney.  Romney has the lead with centrist Republicans (23-17) and with those defining themselves as only somewhat right of center (24-17). But among 'very conservative' voters only 48% have a positive opinion of Romney to 34% who view him negatively, weak numbers, and Bachmann's capitalizing on that with a 26-15 lead over Romney, who's in third place with that group of voters.   

Overall, Romney has a slight lead over Bachmann when it comes to voter opinion, with 50% of Republicans offering a positive view of the former governor over the Congresswoman's 48%.  And should Sarah Palin decide to enter the race Romney could regain the lead, citing 20% support compared to Bachmann's 16%.  However, most GOP supporters don't want Palin to run:

Just 29% think she should enter the race at this point to 53% opposed to that idea.  Even among those voters who see her in a positive light only 45% think she should make a White House bid.

The full analysis from PPP's latest presidential poll is available to view here.

Brand Palin: Former Alaska governor trademarks her name

Natalie Gonnella
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She's already one of this year's most widely recognized Republicans, and in a few weeks' time Sarah Palin will likely be a trademarked brand.

Perhaps the latest indication that she will forgo a bid for the presidency, the former Alaska governor and daughter Bristol have fulfilled the requirements (after a previous failed attempt) for trademarking their names and images.

According to the WSJ:

The trademark process for the former vice presidential candidate began in November, according to records from the Patent and Trademark Office. Ms. Palin’s lawyer initially filed for a trademark that covered “educational and entertainment services, namely, providing motivational speaking services in the field of politics, culture, business and values.” Ms. Palin’s application later expanded to include “information about political elections” and “a website featuring information about political issues.”

...

On May 17, Ms. Palin’s name appeared in the Trademark Official Gazette, a document published weekly that provides information and a drawing of each trademark.  Anyone who opposed her filing had 30 days to protest. That deadline passed Friday without any arguments recorded...assuming no other arguments...surface in the next day or so, and barring any other bureaucratic objections, the Palins’ trademarks should be registered within three months 

Romney's Positive Intensity climbs, while Gingrich's image continues to slide in the eyes of GOP voters

Natalie Gonnella
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Mitt Romney topped President Obama in this morning's ABC News/Washington Post 2012 poll, and according to Gallup's latest presidential tracking figures, the former Massachusetts Governor has also made gains when it comes to image perception among GOP voters, essentially tying Michele Bachmann's Positive Intensity Score.

Since declaring his 2012 candidacy, Romney now maintains the second highest PIS among the current field of confirmed contenders, topping the other three best-known" candidates (both declared/undeclared), Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

Overall, Gallup reports that:

Four candidates now have low, single-digit Positive Intensity Scores -- [Ron] Paul, [Jon] Huntsman, [Newt] Gingrich, and [Gary] Johnson. Gingrich in particular stands out for his rapid fall in Republicans' eyes in recent weeks. At one point in March and early April, Gingrich was as well positioned as any other candidate Gallup tested.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich saw his Postive Intensity Score slip another two points this week, giving him the second lowest rating among the declared field of GOP candidates.

The full results of Gallup's latest presidential tracking poll is available to view here.

The damage Sarah Palin could do (to conservatism)

Ryan Streeter
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Pete Wehner has a smart column today on Sarah Palin today entitled "The Damage Sarah Palin Could Do."

Responding to the charge leveled by her supporters that any of us who have criticized her are part of the inside-the-beltway ruling class, Wehner writes:

Some of us who have been publicly critical of Sarah Palin for some time now have also publicly praised figures like Paul Ryan (among others), which complicates the argument that Palin’s critics are faux conservatives. Indeed, many of us who have expressed concerns about her have done so precisely because of what we believe would happen to conservatism if Palin were its major spokesperson.

As Kimberly Strassel also points out today:  "A March poll showed that 37% of    Republicans and Republican-leaning independents view her unfavorably, a number that far outpaced that of any other potential GOP candidate."

These 37% are not inside-the-beltway types but drawn from the voting populace across the country.

And surely they get their Palin not through some lamestream media outlet, but most likely through Fox News and many of the same web sites as Palin's supporters.

The point here is that Sarah Palin has landed somehow on a parallel track to everyone else in the field. To criticize her is, to those who support her, "proof" that you are a RINO, not a real conservative. Pawlenty's supporters don't criticize Romney's supporters for being unRepublican or closet liberals when they publicly criticize T-Paw. When Newt Gingrich used his first Meet the Press appearance as a 2012 contender to accuse Paul Ryan of right-wing social engineering, Ryan's supporters criticized Gingrich for being off-base in his argument, and even politically unwise. But no one said he was no longer a conservative or un-American.

It is by all means necessary for conservatives to call out those in their ranks who share their label but not their principles. But people with solid conservative credentials who question Palin's ability to win an election should be able to do so without having those credentials questioned. 

Conservatives have long prided themselves on being deeply principled, but not doctrinaire. And we typically criticize the left for being exactly the reverse. When conservatives become doctrinaire and turn on each other, questioning their commitment to the cause - well, it's simply not very conservative.

I fear Palin's entrance into the primary would have the opposite effect of a Reagan: it would divide conservatives in a way that would be damaging to the cause we all love.

Romney and Palin lead among reduced 2012 field, as Paul, Gingrich and Cain tie for third

Natalie Gonnella
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In their first survey update of Republican nomination preferences since a flurry of recent announcements, Gallup finds that Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin continue to retain the highest level of voter support among the prospective pool of presidential candidates. 

Of the 10 Republicans included in the revised list of possible contenders, over two thirds have officially announced their candidacies/established exploratory committees, with Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain (all officially declared candidates) essentially tied for third.  Notably, nearly a quarter of voters do not a clear candidate preference at this point.

Although Jon Huntsmans and Michele Bachmann are expected to join the race, Sarah Palin's status remains less certain.  In examining the field after rellocating Palin supporters (using voters second choice), Gallup found that under this scenario, Romney continues to lead with 19%, followed by Gingrich and Paul with 12% each.  Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann come third, both tied with 7% of voter support.

The full results of Gallup's latest look at voter support for the 2012 field is available to view here.

In another poll released today on the 2012 race, when it comes to hypothetical match ups Romney and Huckabee continue to close the gap with President Obama, while Trump and Palin fail to measure up

Natalie Gonnella

Although 53% of Americans were unable to identify a potential GOP candidate, a new McClatchy-Marist survey reveals that two former governors have gained significant ground in a hypothetical match up against President Obama, while other potential contenders continue to fall behind.

In a near tie in the latest poll, Mitt Romney currently leads among prospective Republican candidates when paired against the current Administration:

When given the choice between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the president, voters divide.  46% of registered voters say they would back the president while 45% say they would cast their ballot for Romney.  Nine percent are undecided.

In a previous survey in January the President maintained a 13% lead, with just 38% of Americans backing the former Massachusetts governor and 11% undecided. And when it comes to Independent voters, Marist notes that support for the President's reelection bid has also significantly fallen when paired against Romney:

Currently a plurality — 45% — back Romney while 42% support Obama.  13% are undecided.  Previously, the president held a 10 percentage point lead over Romney.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, although still trailing the President, has also seen a jump in numbers since the previous poll:

48% of voters say they would support the president in this hypothetical contest while 43% believe they would back Huckabee.  Nine percent are undecided.  However, Huckabee has narrowed the gap.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 12 percentage points separated the two.  In January, half of voters — 50% — said Obama was their candidate while 38% said the same about Huckabee.  12% were undecided.

While Romney and Huckabee have experienced an increase in support, Marist's latest survey shows that when it comes to the wider GOP field it's not all positive news, as President Obama continues to "outdistance" other opponents, including media "favorites" Sarah Palin and Donald Trump:

A majority — 56% — believe they will vote for Obama if [Sarah] Palin receives the Republican nomination.  34%, though, say they will cast their ballot for Palin.  One in ten — 10% — are undecided.  In January, the same proportion of voters — 56% — supported Obama while 30% backed Palin.  13%, at the time, were undecided.

And, there’s been much speculation about a presidential run by businessman Donald Trump.  Is he a strong contender when he’s toe-to-toe with President Obama?  In this contest, Obama garners a majority of voters — 54% — to 38% for Trump.  Eight percent are undecided.

The full results of the latest McClatchy-Marist poll can be viewed here.