Ryan Streeter
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Religion in America continues to be one of the great predictors of political identity. Gallup is out with new survey results today showing just how true this political reality continues to be today.
Nearly half, 49%, of Americans who consider themselves “very religious” are Republicans or lean to the GOP, compared to 30% of those who consider themselves “nonreligious.” Among those who consider themselves “moderately religious,” 38% identify with the Republican party. Fifty-two percent of nonreligious Americans are Democrats or lean Democratic, as do 44% of the moderately religious.
So just how big are these various segments of the American population? Gallup reports that 40% of Americans are very religious, 31% are nonreligious, and 28% are moderately religious. Religiosity is determined by how important a respondent says religion is in daily life and how frequently he/she attends services.
The Republican bent of religious voters is especially pronounced among whites, but it’s also a factor among Hispanics and Asians. African Americans, as is well-known, are an exception (very religious black Americans are more likely to lean Democratic than the nonreligious). Among whites, 62% of the very religious identify with the GOP compared with just 33% of the nonreligious.
The more religious the Hispanic or Asian voter, the more likely he/she is to trend Republican, even though both groups are still majority Democratic.
Other factors, of course, influence the relationship between faith and political identity. Pew’s political typology, for instance, shows that groups within the Democratic party – especially those comprised of minorities – are especially religious. But it’s undeniable that, in America, secularism and political liberalism go hand-in-hand.
The relationship between faith and politics is much deeper and richer than people’s and parties’ views of hot-button issues such as abortion and marriage. It’s also determined by the manner in which public figures on the left and the right talk about faith, treat issues important to religious Americans, and prioritize the role of faith in public life.
Given the consistency of the faith’s relationship to party over the past generation, it is hard to believe that it will change anytime soon.
There are two demographic realities in America that should therefore give conservatives pause:
First, Millennials are less religious than previous generations. According to Pew, Millennials are much less religious than their grandparents and parents, and their level of religious intensity is down overall. Compared to where the greatest generation or boomers were in their 20s, today’s 20-somethings place less importance on the daily role of faith in their lives. While people tend to get a bit more religious as they age, there is little evidence Millennials will experience a historically unusual jump and become a majority religious demographic. The percentage of people saying they are very religious will most assuredly drop in coming decades from the 40% we see today.
Second, according to emerging research from Charles Murray, working class America is markedly less religious than a generation ago. It seems that the farther down the income ladder you go from upper middle class America, the more secular the groups get. This means that people who struggle the most economically will be much less receptive to the goals and language of free-marketers.
There’s not much policymakers can do to change these dynamics. We are in the midst of cultural shift in America that will be determined much more by the cultural leaders to whom people look for guidance. Given the cultural leaders we see out there, that’s more than a little dispiriting.
