ConservativeHome's The Republican

Poll: Among the potential 2012 field, former Governor Mike Huckabee continues to generate the most favorable reaction from GOP voters

Natalie Gonnella

As speculation continues over possible 2012 candidates, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee continues to lead the field when it comes to Positive Intensity Scores.

In Gallup's latest poll investigating the favorability ratings of potential presidential contenders, Mike Huckabee was six points ahead of his closest competion when it came to positive reactions from voters. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann tied for second with 20 points, and former restaurant chain executive Hermain Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich rounded out the top five both with a score of 19.

Gallup's latest survey also reveals that:

• Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels' and Romney's Positive Intensity Scores each rose by five points from two weeks ago -- Daniels' from 10 to 15, and Romney's from 15 to 20. This week's update puts Romney in a tie for second place behind Huckabee for the first time.
• Despite the flurry of publicity that surrounded Pawlenty's announcement last week, his recognition among Republicans has essentially not changed, at 40% today, compared with 39% in January.
• The two largest changes over time in Republicans' familiarity with the list of potential candidates are Daniels' increase from 26% recognition in January to 33% today, and Rick Santorum's from 40% in January to 46% today.

With another Gallup survey this week week noting that Americans are less likely to view President Obama as a strong leader, and as a number of candidates take steps towards declaring their candidacy, Gallup's Positive Intensity Poll will definitely be one to watch.

Poll: While he may be the first to take key steps towards a presidential bid, in comparison to other potential contenders former Governor Tim Pawlenty remains relatively unknown among Republican voters

Natalie Gonnella

Although Tim Pawlenty appears to be the "first out of the gate" among the possible GOP contenders, Gallup reveals that the former Governor still has a long way to go when it comes to recognition among the American electorate.

In the latest survey investigating potential 2012 candidates, Gallup examines name recognition among GOP voters. While Pawlenty may be the first to announce the formation of an exploratory committee, the former state leader only garners an ID score of 41%, ranking ninth amid possible Republican nominees, which, according to Gallup and past election patterns, could be a serious obstacle in his 2012 pursuit:

The last eight Republicans who won their party's presidential nomination -- John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, and Barry Goldwater -- were well-known and well-established politicians. 

Additionally, Barack Obama, who stands as an example of an individual who came from relative obscurity to national prominence, had a name recognition score of over 75% by March 2007, the year before he gained the Democratic nomination.

Pawlenty and Barbour thus face a serious challenge as they begin their quests to gain their party's nomination. Well under half of their party's rank-and-file members across the country at this point, less than a year before the first primaries and caucuses take place, know who they are. Both Pawlenty and Barbour, as well as other Republicans who are expected to formally announce their candidacies over the next few months, will be crisscrossing the country for the remainder of the year in an effort to make themselves known -- and liked -- by potential GOP primary voters. 

While Pawlenty ranks in the bottom tier on name recognition, when it comes to his Positive Intensity Score ("the net of strongly favorable views minus strongly unfavorable views") the Minnesotan does poll significantly better, locked in a tie for fourth place with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

The full results of Gallup's latest poll can be viewed here.

What They're Saying: Several 2012 candidates back the no-fly zone option in Libya

Natalie Gonnella

With a number of Republicans pushing hard for a no-fly zone in Libya amid intense criticism of President Obama's handling of the ongoing crisis, several 2012 candidates have started to speak out on the issue.

Although many among the perspective field have remained relatively quiet, a growing number of potential contenders have voiced their concerns about the continued violence, backing calls for the US and NATO allies to implement a no-fly zone as soon as possible,  Here's a look at what a few of the possible nominees have had to say:

In an interview with Fox News's Greta Van Susteren after his speech in Iowa last night, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty said:

I think we need to make sure that we stand for our basic principles, including these. Number one, we don't want new or continued radical regimes anywhere in the world. But importantly, we want to move these regimes towards our value system, including democracy, human rights, resolving disputes in a peaceful manner in a democratic arena, free and fair flow of information and others...I would absolutely consider and likely deploy a no-fly zone over Libya for those reasons. We have a confirmed terrorist, a sociopath who is gunning down and killing his own people in the streets of Libya. We have, I believe, the reasonable capacity to prevent and stop that, at least as it relates to air strikes, and I think that's a viable option and he should take it.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, also interviewed by Van Susteren, called for immediate action:

Exercise a no-fly zone this evening, communicate to the Libyan military that Qaddafi was gone and that the sooner they switch sides, the more like they were to survive, provided help to the rebels to replace him. I mean, the idea that we're confused about a man who has been an anti-American dictator since 1969 just tells you how inept this administration is. They were very quick to jump on Mubarak, who was their ally for 30 years, and they were confused about getting rid of Qaddafi. This is a moment to get rid of him. Do it. Get it over with.

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin called for the establishment of a no-fly zone in Libya via her Facebook page earlier in February, and in an interview on Fox News with Jeanine Pirro this past weekend she reiterated her view, commenting that:

Certainly a no fly zone...41 years of Gadhafi. He’s got to go. I think what was unfortunate there in Libya was that is it took our administration so long to have any full throated support for ousting Gadhafi.

In an interview with CNN in late February, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee expressed his concerns, noting that:

I think a no-fly zone would be absolute – yeah a no fly zone very important because that way you keep him from flying mercenaries in, maybe even a naval armada somewhere off the 3 mile international boundaries, just as a presence, and even to say we stand ready to do what is necessary to make sure there's not an act of genocide against those people

New 2012 poll shows Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee "essentially" even with President Obama

Natalie Gonnella

Rasmussen Reporting released new poll results today reflecting possible 2012 match ups. Although Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are trailing in the latest survey, former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee fare much better, "essentially [running] even" with President Obama (Romney is actually ahead by two points.)

In comparison to past results, "Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%."

While it is still early, one of the most interesting findings revealed by Rasmussen's most recent survey is that "regardless of what GOP candidate is named, the president [only] earns between 42% and 49%," suggesting a competitive start to the 2012 presidential race.

The full results of Rasmussen's latest poll can be viewed here.

Newt Gingrich weighs in on the major headlines of the week on Fox News Sunday

Natalie Gonnella

During his appearance this week on Fox News Sunday (video not yet available online) former House Speaker Newt Gingrich weighed in a handful of issues.  Here is what he had to say on some of the most notable topics of the week:

Wikileaks:

Information terrorism, which leads to people getting killed, is terrorism, and Julian Assange is engaged in terrorism. He should be treated as an enemy combatant. WikiLeaks should be closed down permanently and decisively. But even more, how can we have gone through the last year and not figured out how did all these documents get released? Who's responsible for security?... How do you have a system so stupid…I mean, this is a system so stupid that it ought to be a scandal of the first order. This administration is so shallow and so amateurish about national security that it is painful and dangerous.

The deficit commission’s report:

It's the wrong commission on the wrong topic. The number one topic is jobs, because if you're at 4 percent unemployment, you just cut the deficit in half...second, I am against any tax increase on capital gains or on dividends because it makes us less competitive with China, Germany and India.

Unemployment extensions:

I would agree to a short-term extension of unemployment. But I have proposed, since we spent $134 billion last year in unemployment, that we change the entire program into a worker training program and not give anybody money for doing nothing.

Sarah Palin

Palin is a phenomenon in her own right.

...and finally, his potential run for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination:

Calista and I will make a decision probably at the end of February, beginning of March...I think we're much more inclined to run than not run. And I think we -- everything we've done over the last year, talking to friends, thinking things through, has made us more inclined to believe that it's doable.

According to the New York Times, it was a good week for GOP authors

Natalie Gonnella

It was a good week for GOP book sales, according to the New York Times's Best Seller List.  Former President George W. Bush, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former First Lady Laura Bush, and Governor Rick Perry and Senator Newt Gingrich all had book sales which landed them in the New York Time's list of top 35 selling non-fiction hardbacks.

President George W. Bush secured the #1 spot, for the week ending November 28th, with his recently released, Decision Points.  As of Wednesday, the autobiography had sold 1.1 million hard copies and 135,000 e-books (AP).

Condoleezza Rice's Extraordinary, Ordinary People just missed out on the top 15, placing 16th for the week.  Laura Bush claimed the 28th spot with Spoken from the Heart, released in April 2010. Fed Up!, a joint effort by Governor Perry and Senator Gingrich, rested at 32nd.

New poll shows 48% of voters plan to definitely vote against President Obama in 2012

Natalie Gonnella

A new Marist Poll released today reveals that, in looking to 2012, 48% of Americans plan to definitely vote against President Obama and half of independent voters report they will absolutely not support him in his re-election bid.

With regard to a potential Democratic challenger to President Obama, 40% of Democratic respondents would prefer a more conservative candidate, with 50% of Democratic leaning independents preferring a more conservative contender.

Today’s poll also reports a pretty close field with regard to voter preferences for potential Republican nominees.  According to Marist, at the moment, Republicans and Republican leaning independents favor the following candidates:

20% Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

16% former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

13% former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

10% Newt Gingrich

9% New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

5% Texas Governor Rick Perry

4% Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels

3% Congressman Mike Pence

3% Former New York State Governor George Pataki

2% Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty

1% Mississippi

14% are undecided

Palin hype may turn into a massive campaign, but could also be checked by those in the movement wanting solutions over personality

Jim Geraghty at NRO writes today about how National Review cruise guests felt about Sarah Palin:

In my interactions with only a fraction of the 700+ NR cruisegoers — mostly older, mostly well-off, passionate about politics, and many heavily involved with the tea parties — I found about two-thirds wildly enthusiastic about Sarah Palin; you could hear the gasps when Scott Rasmussen predicted she would not be the 2012 Republican nominee. Most of the remaining one-third said that while they personally liked Palin, they didn’t want to see her run in 2012, or anytime soon. An isolated few didn’t seem to like Palin much at all.

His experience on the big boat coheres with what the ConservativeHome panel of 2,200+ self-identified conservatives has shown: politically engaged, upper-middle-class-to-affluent, older conservatives like Sarah a lot. A sizeable number of them peel off, however, when asked who they think is really electable. In that case, Romney pulls the most support.

Geraghty points out, quoting Ralph Reed, that in the end being able to raise a lot of money and put a well-organized ground force out across America is going to matter for a lot - and Palin seems likely to succeed on those fronts.

One element from our survey results that gives us a bit more pause is that Palin only out-stepped Gingrich by 2 percentage points, 23 to 21%, among favorite 2012 contenders. 

Whatever merits Gingrich does or does not have when it comes to pulling off a presidential campaign, he's quite different from Palin in his ability to generate a bunch of interesting ideas. Palin appeals to middle class sentiment, though arguably she has not done much to say how we should improve prospects for the middle America that loves her so much.

Gingrich's wide support in our poll suggests that nearly as many conservatives in America have an appetite for policy and ideas as wave the Sarah banners.

Larger majority will help Boehner perform better than Gingrich, predicts NRO, but Politico sounds warning about Cantor relationship

Tim Montgomerie

On National Review Ramesh Ponnuru compares the challenges that faced Newt Gingrich after his victories in 1994 with those facing John Boehner today. Because Boehner has a larger majority and a more conservative, experienced grouping, Boehner's task might be easier, Ponnuru argues:

In 1995, Republicans had the smallest majority of any Congress since the 1950s. Conservatives were a majority of the majority, but not a majority of the House. Holding the conference together on votes was a constant challenge: Budgets would be too tight for party moderates and too loose for conservative firebrands. Boehner’s task will be easier. Republicans have the largest majority they have had since the 1940s. For the first time in the modern history of conservatism, the House has an outright conservative majority. Michael Barone says that House Republicans are in the sweet spot: They have enough members that Boehner can let some Republicans out of tough votes, but not so many that they have no cohesion.

He also says the GOP has learnt the lessons of 1995/96; will avoid confrontationalism and factionalism; and that Boehner is a less grandiose, explosive figure than Gingrich. Read Ramesh Ponnuru's full piece. Ponnuru shares the optimism of Gary Andres, who on ConservativeHome yesterday, wrote about the incoming Speaker's mastery of policy process.

Jake Sherman and Richard Cohen at Politico, however, worry about the Boehner-Cantor relationship, portraying Boehner as more of a deal-maker and Cantor as more ideological:

In the post-election high, Boehner has kept any simmering tensions with Cantor and his allies from bubbling up. But if you scratch beneath the surface, there are plenty of tension points that could cause problems for the new speaker. Boehner, for example, declared openness in September to backing a middle-ground deal on the expiring tax cuts. After strong objections from Cantor and allies, Boehner quickly disavowed that approach and has since taken a harder line. Cantor has voiced explicit interest in making a quick pivot to 2012 presidential politics. And, in contrast to Boehner’s deal-making interest, Cantor has voiced doubts about finding much middle ground with Obama.

Read their full piece.