ConservativeHome's The Republican

Run, Mitch, Run: With Haley Barbour out, will Mitch jump in?

Ryan Streeter

I can't be the only one having this thought right now. Since Haley Barbour just announced he will not seek the presidency in 2012, does that make a Mitch Daniels bid more likely? As many observers have noted, Barbour and Mitch Daniels are good friends, which would have made their joint entry into the field awkward, if not unlikely.

Barbour's announcement comes a day after Dan Balz's Post piece on Daniels.

Since many insiders expected Barbour to run, let's hope the inverse is also true: that Daniels, whose bid has seemed less likely lately, will surprise insiders and announce a bid.

As Balz points out, Daniels would be happy to have someone else claim the banner of fiscal fortitude so that he doesn't have to run. He, unlike the others, doesn't need to be President. But I suppose the upside of the downside of having a bunch of candidates who don't seem all that passionate about reducing the deficit is that Mitch may be forced - out of a deep sense of public obligation - to run.

Half of Americans cannot name anyone among the GOP's burgeoning 2012 field

Natalie Gonnella

In the latest survey investigating voters' perceptions of the 2012 presidential race, Pew Research Center finds that 53% of Americans and 38% of Republicans are unable to name a possible GOP contender when asked who among the 2012 field they had been "hearing most about."

When it comes to those who were able to identify a GOP contender, unsurprisingly (especially considering the barrage of media attention surrounding his most recent comments), Donald Trump tops the visibility list, with nearly two-fifths of Republicans naming the business mogul as the most noticeable contender among the possible 2012 field.  Mitt Romney places a distance second with only 12% visibility among GOP voters.

Pew's recent analysis also reveals that:

Overall, just 20% of the public say they followed possible candidates for the 2012 presidential elections very closely last week and just 4% named it as their most closely followed story. The disaster in Japan was once again the most closely followed story (at 26%), according to Pew Research’s News Interest Index. 

The full results of Pew's latest poll can be viewed here.

Poll: While he may be the first to take key steps towards a presidential bid, in comparison to other potential contenders former Governor Tim Pawlenty remains relatively unknown among Republican voters

Natalie Gonnella

Although Tim Pawlenty appears to be the "first out of the gate" among the possible GOP contenders, Gallup reveals that the former Governor still has a long way to go when it comes to recognition among the American electorate.

In the latest survey investigating potential 2012 candidates, Gallup examines name recognition among GOP voters. While Pawlenty may be the first to announce the formation of an exploratory committee, the former state leader only garners an ID score of 41%, ranking ninth amid possible Republican nominees, which, according to Gallup and past election patterns, could be a serious obstacle in his 2012 pursuit:

The last eight Republicans who won their party's presidential nomination -- John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, and Barry Goldwater -- were well-known and well-established politicians. 

Additionally, Barack Obama, who stands as an example of an individual who came from relative obscurity to national prominence, had a name recognition score of over 75% by March 2007, the year before he gained the Democratic nomination.

Pawlenty and Barbour thus face a serious challenge as they begin their quests to gain their party's nomination. Well under half of their party's rank-and-file members across the country at this point, less than a year before the first primaries and caucuses take place, know who they are. Both Pawlenty and Barbour, as well as other Republicans who are expected to formally announce their candidacies over the next few months, will be crisscrossing the country for the remainder of the year in an effort to make themselves known -- and liked -- by potential GOP primary voters. 

While Pawlenty ranks in the bottom tier on name recognition, when it comes to his Positive Intensity Score ("the net of strongly favorable views minus strongly unfavorable views") the Minnesotan does poll significantly better, locked in a tie for fourth place with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

The full results of Gallup's latest poll can be viewed here.

New poll shows 48% of voters plan to definitely vote against President Obama in 2012

Natalie Gonnella

A new Marist Poll released today reveals that, in looking to 2012, 48% of Americans plan to definitely vote against President Obama and half of independent voters report they will absolutely not support him in his re-election bid.

With regard to a potential Democratic challenger to President Obama, 40% of Democratic respondents would prefer a more conservative candidate, with 50% of Democratic leaning independents preferring a more conservative contender.

Today’s poll also reports a pretty close field with regard to voter preferences for potential Republican nominees.  According to Marist, at the moment, Republicans and Republican leaning independents favor the following candidates:

20% Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

16% former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

13% former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

10% Newt Gingrich

9% New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

5% Texas Governor Rick Perry

4% Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels

3% Congressman Mike Pence

3% Former New York State Governor George Pataki

2% Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty

1% Mississippi

14% are undecided

Texas Governor Rick Perry elected as the new chair of the Republican Governors Association

Natalie Gonnella  

According to the AP, Texas Governor Rick Perry has been officially elected as the new chair of the Republican Governor’s Association (RGA).  Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell will continue to serve as RGA Vice Chair. 

RGA’s new leadership team also includes:

• Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
• South Carolina Governor-elect Nikki Haley
• New Mexico Governor-elect Susana Martinez
• New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

Perry takes over from outgoing chair and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour who assumed the role after Governor Mark Sanford (South Carolina) stepped down from the role in 2009.

Credited as a major asset to the GOP’s November success, Governor Barbour set a new RGA fundraising record in 2010.  Governor-elect Nikki Haley described Barbour as “a leader that didn’t waste time, and got right to the message that if we were going to succeed by 2012, we had to elect not just Republicans, but reformers” (New York Times)