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Meanwhile, in news unrelated to the government shutdown: America is becoming more dependent on government healthcare, less white, more Hispanic, more suburban, and more southwestern

Ryan Streeter

It almost seems sacrilegious to write about anything other than the coming government shutdown right now, but American life continues on nonetheless. And it continues to change. As the political class tries to make decisions in ways that affect their core constituencies, it's always interesting to look how constituencies in general are changing.

Three interesting demographic pieces have come out in the past day or so that help us understand America’s changing political landscape.

Today’s Gallup poll, this piece yesterday at CNN on 8 takeaways from the new Census data, and a new City Journal essay by Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox raise these important points:

Republicans have a health care problem. As if we didn’t know ObamaCare repeal and entitlement reform would be hard, the latest data show that 1 in 4 adults have government-provided health coverage. The average is boosted, of course, by the large percentage of seniors on Medicare, but nonetheless the overall percentage has risen in the past couple of years. Since the chief Republican reform efforts center on entitlement reform and ObamaCare repeal, the political challenges are only intensifying. People in the 25-45 range are least likely to have government health care, which means conversely that they are likely to be the most supportive of Republican reform efforts.

The center of gravity in American politics is moving south and west, and is becoming more Hispanic and less white. The south and west factor is good for Republicans, the Hispanic/white factor is not – yet, anyway. Republicans have known they have been behind the curve on this latter issue for awhile and are effectively out of excuses. The most promising thing the GOP has going for it are the Marco Rubios and Susana Martinez’s in the party. “Outreach” has otherwise failed, doomed by a lack of imagination, on the one hand, and overkill on immigration on the other.

The center of American life, despite the best efforts of elites and urban boosters, has continued to concentrate in the suburbs. We are the suburban nation. Hardly anyone lives in rural areas anymore, and core cities have grown super-slowly or negatively. Meanwhile, Americans are piling into the rings outside core cities, filling up roadways, cul-de-sacs and parking lots like never before. We are both dispersing and concentrating at the same time: always moving out into new terrain, but doing so in and around metro zones. This means that the issues of school quality, congestion, commuting, and fuel prices will be politically important. Forget high-speed rail, as much as some of us enjoy trains. America will need more lanes, more telecommuting, and more pressure on urban schools to improve if the neighborhoods around them ever want to bounce back again.

Joel Kotkin: America's changing class structure and its demographic trends should keep Republicans up at night

Ryan Streeter

Joel Kotkin is one of America's most important demographers and futurists. In the 4 question interview below he hits Republicans where it hurts a bit (Democrats, too). We would all do well to pay attention. Here are the main points I take away:

• Demography in the US favors the Democrats. The fastest growing parts of the electorate don't look good for Republicans.
• Job creation will be the biggest public policy theme for some time to come, and Republicans haven't quite gotten this issue right even as Democrats botch it. 
• Class, more than race, will determine America's political future. The wide swath of largely suburban, skilled workers is up for grabs, and neither party has a vision for improving their quality of life - which is why they keep wreaking havoc on each Party's plans.
• Republicans have failed among Latinos and millennials and will pay for it for some time to come if they don't reverse the trends they've helped start.

RS: You wrote recently in The American that demography is on the side of the Democrats. Explain why that is.

Kotkin: Essentially the two most rapidly expanding populations – the millennials and Latinos – are trending Democratic and “progressive.” This does not mean they will not shift center or even center-right over time but Republicans have much work to do on getting them to shift. Both groups are right now voting about two to one for Democrats.

RS: Conversely, you say that geography is on the side of the Republicans. Why is that?

Kotkin: Republicans govern most of the growth states (I leave it up to the reader to say whether this is a direct connection). These states are attracting migrants from both abroad and the rest of country. When these people, including Latinos and millennials, arrive three things can happen: they turn the states blue, they themselves turn red, or sometime in between. The key is for Republicans in these states to make a case for their lower tax, lower regulation model. But tolerance for immigration and ethnic change and social tolerance (for example towards gays) will prove critical over time.

RS:  Which issues do you think will be the biggest drivers of changes to the political landscape in the United States over the next decade?

Kotkin: The biggest issue by far will be jobs. We are facing a decade of higher-than-normal unemployment. The second issue will be how to become more competitive without ruining the environment. These are issues neither party has compelling answers for. The Democratic “progressive” approach has been tried for a while, and has been found wanting. Businesspeople still have to be confident about things, and government cannot build a successful economy. Republican bromides have been more effective in some cases, but still do not answer key questions about growing class bifurcation and maintaining or improving the environment. I do not think the Bush years were a great economic success either.

The issue of class is one Americans do not like to face. But it is increasingly evident that this, more than race, will determine the political future. The Democrats own the lower income groups and those at the apex of the post-industrial economy – top bureaucrats, most non-profits, established media, Silicon Valley VCs, Wall Street and academia. The Republicans own the old upper class tied to manufacturing (at least the non-subsidized parts), agriculture and fossil fuels. The group in play is the huge, mainly suburban working, middle and upper-middle class. These include managers, store owners, lone entrepreneurs and skilled laborers in the private sector. Neither party focuses on presenting a positive vision for growth and improvement of quality of life for this segment. So people in this group shift back and forth, making havoc of the best laid plans of both parties.

RS: Which demographic realities do you think neither political party is doing enough to address?

Kotkin: Republicans have failed to address the concerns of Latinos and millennials. The Anglo population has dropped from 90 to 75 percent of the population in the past generation, so the Republicans can't continue being overly reliant on them. The GOP used to enjoy more support among Latinos. Now, after supporting what are perceived as anti-immigrant initiatives and legislation, the GOP is perceived as nativist. Millennials, those born between 1983 and the millennium, will constitute one-third of the electorate in ten years. They are much more to the left on key issues than their parents, and while they might trend back toward the center as they age, they look like a good voting block for the Democrats for some time to come. 

Democrats seem clueless about America's large and growing suburban population. The majority of growth in metro areas is in the suburbs, which are much more diverse than they used to be. Republicans typically do well in these regions, and they've done especially well in the states that are growing the fastest. By concentrating too much on the urban poor and metro rich, the Democrats are losing a huge opportunity in the suburbs.

Both parties are far too focused on their “cores” and not enough on the needs of the majority, who are neither the Tea Party nor Moveon.org types.

Nikki Haley: It's not diversity as race or gender but diversity as business owner

Ryan Streeter

Nikki Haley speaks some wisdom regarding diversity and the GOP:

I don't think it's so much about white male or white female or anything in between. It is very much about real people running - those that haven't come from political hierarchy, those that aren't from wealthy means, those that haven't wished to do this all their life. It's real true business people that know what it's like to hurt.

Good words. Spoken by South Carolina's Indian-American female governor.

The quote is from a CNN article titled, "New Face of GOP: Diversity."  But take note of how that's not what Haley is quoted talking about. She is talking about business people versus the political class. Having the former in Washington is what adds diversity.