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The major headline from today’s NBC/WSJ poll has been that Herman Cain tops Mitt Romney as the Republican frontrunner.
Digging deeper, the poll contains a number of other interesting findings.
The most illuminating is the degree to which Republican primary voters care about the deficit and debt compared to the population as a whole. While 70% of the public and 60% of GOP primary voters list the economy as a first or second top priority for the federal government, 52% of GOP primary voters name the debt and deficit as a top priority compared to 35% of all voters. This suggests that GOP presidential candidates should speak more directly about how to reduce the deficit. Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan may not survive increased scrutiny, but his focus upon it has helped him. The candidate who does the same thing on deficit reduction may find him or herself rewarded.
Don't confuse Cain's high marks with electability. Obama out-polls Romney as voters' first choice 46-44 - inside the margin of error and virtually unchanged from the NBC/WSJ August poll. By comparison, Obama leads Cain 49-38.
The poll’s wrong-track numbers are nearing their October 2008 levels, when the nation was in a dark spiral in the wake of the markets’ collapsing. Back then, 78% of voters said the nation was on the wrong track. Today, the number is 74%, up from 56% at the beginning of the year. As bad as this is for the country, it holds some obvious advantages for the GOP frontrunners.
Barack Obama’s 51% disapproval number matches last month, which is as high as it has been. Only 23% of voters say they have a “very positive” impression of him, his lowest point since becoming President (this figure was 47% right after his inauguration). His pivot to class-warfare-tactician-in-chief has not helped him over the past month. Every time the President goes after the rich, sympathize with the sentiment and then remind voters of how the economy is doing and how Obama's plans will change virtually nothing.
However, it’s worth noting that Obama’s total positive numbers stand at 46%, while Herman Cain is at 24% and Mitt Romney at 27%. Those positive numbers won’t translate into votes for Obama, as his head-to-head match-up numbers make him much more fragile. But these numbers should be instructive to GOP candidates. Be wise in how you attack Obama.
Finally, Republican voters may have finally grown weary of hoping for a better candidate. In June, when asked how satisfied they were with the GOP field, 45% said they were satisfied and 45% said they were dissatisfied. Today, 63% say they are satisfied, compared to just 31% who are dissatisfied.
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