In a drawn-out Republican primary, Romney looks like a winner

Ryan Streeter
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Sean Trende has an original take on the GOP presidential primary this morning at Real Clear Politics. Using data on the timing of each state’s primary, the number of delegates to the GOP convention, and voters' ideological composition, he lays out a possible scenario that, on the face of it, looks good for Romney.

The analysis is based on a scenario in which the GOP primary remains competitive after the earliest primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. It’s likely that Bachmann could take Iowa, Romney New Hampshire, and Perry South Carolina. Given the ideological composition of the electorate, it will be tough for a candidate to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

So the real question becomes whether a candidate (Perry?) can dominate early among conservatives and go into Super Tuesday head-to-head with Romney. If we have a drawn-out race, then things look better for Romney.

Here’s why:

Early primary states are the most conservative, which could be a problem for Perry or Bachmann. The RNC has said that it would cut in half the number of delegates to the convention for any state that holds its primary before March 1 except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. The most conservative early primary states may go before March 1 anyway, which would reduce the number of delegates for the candidate(s) who win among conservatives.

In early primary states the moderate candidate could come out with the most votes in a drawn out race. That is, if Perry and Bachmann split the votes among the most conservative voters, the remaining moderate voters would outnumber either of their respective takes…which favors Romney.

The later primary states are more moderate and can operate under a winner-takes-all structure. The RNC has stipulated that primaries before April 1 allocate delegates in proportion to the vote each candidate receives, but after that, states can choose to send all their delegates for the winning candidate. In a drawn-out race with Perry and Bachmann splitting up conservatives, this favors Romney again in a big way.

Complicating this scenario is the big unknown for Romney: what happens to him when he re-enters the fray? He has benefited lately from a frontrunner status that has allowed him to run a race without answering too many tough questions about his past record, RomneyCare, and so forth. With Perry in, the heat gets turned up on Romney. How he will handle the heat is difficult to predict.

Of course, all of the above analysis is based on a number of factors that no one can predict. Perry could fizzle (though his organization, evident in his rollout, doesn’t suggest that will happen). Or he could marginalize Bachmann early. Romney’s lead could start to crumble early for a host of reasons beyond those I cited. But if the three top tier candidates stay strong into the early primaries, the above factors will kick into gear in a way that would likely leave Romney smiling.

Comments

[Faceless Bureaucrat]

Don't underestimate Perry - Bachman may be a darling of the TP, but Perry appeals to 'TP Plus' - in other words, his reach goes beyond simply the TP voter base.

If you add together the TP, the Christian Right and disillusioned Republicans who didn't feel they had a credible GOP Candidate last time around (and there were many), Perry is in with a serious chance of reaching the White House. That's before you subtract fed-up Democrats who simply will not vote for Obama again.

Raising Romney's flag over Washington this early is a little premature, I fear...

[Elisabeth]

It seems undemocratic to me, for the RNC to weight different primaries according to the calendar! Golly, what next??