After Ames, all eyes are on Romney and Perry

Ryan Streeter
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Michele Bachmann pulled out an important, if not unsurprising, victory in Ames. Ron Paul's strong showing was also anticipated. And worries about Tim Pawlenty among his supporters were only confirmed by his distant third place finish. There are early reports this morning that he will announce today that he is ending his campaign.

Perhaps the most intriguing result was that Rick Perry bested Romney, even though the Texas governor was a write-in candidate who was nowhere near Iowa.

This result shows where we are right now in the campaign: at the point where the epic battle begins between Perry and Romney begins for the hearts and minds of voters. It's too early to make any firm predictions about whether that battle will define the primaries, but it's looking that way right now.

Romney has been the clear frontrunner despite misgivings among conservatives about his past flip-flops and unappealing health care law. His last debate performance helped him overall. His low Ames numbers were expected, since he didn't invest heavily in Iowa, but the fact that Perry got more votes put a chink in Romney's armor.

Perry is at least as evangelical and anti-Washington as Bachmann, with executive experience besides. Bachmann has thrown water all over Pawlenty's campaign. Perry will likely do the same to hers. She has probably hit the high point of her campaign, so long as Perry says and does the things everyone expects him to do.

This raises three important questions:

1. Can Perry's appeal to conservatives broaden out to enough independents to beat Obama? His jobs record is his strength on this front, but his Texas swagger and gun-toting, states-rights-loving, evangelical persona are his biggest liability with this group.
2. Can Romney pull enough support from conservatives to beat Perry in the primary? If Perry has some potential weaknesses in a general election, Romney has them in the primary - and Perry's entrance into the race will reinforce that reality.
3. Will Perry's entrance into the race kick off a more intense fundraising battle? Money has been sitting on the sidelines to a significant degree. Will the big donors and bundlers start getting active now? How that question is answered will matter a lot.

Perry and Romney are flip sides of the other in terms of electoral advantage: one is especially strong among primary voters, the other among voters in a general. Some will probably start saying we should have a Perry-Romney or Romney-Perry ticket in 2012. While that doesn't quite seem like the dream ticket at this point, it could actually be what we get.

Comments

[Biffo]

A Perry-Romney ticket could be the ideal, but a Perry-Bachmann could blow your socks off. The latter is what America needs, but the Yanks may well baulk at too much of the right medicine.

[MartinW]

A small worry that he was once in the blue party and the campaign manager for that Climate Alchemist the Reverend Albert Gore.
But Perry does now seem to have realised that the scientific case for siginifcant anthropogenic climate change is lacking, and for that alone he should be strongly supported.

[Tom]

Hilarious.

Bachmann and Paul pulled in the votes at Ames. Paul without trying too hard (invested less than Bachmann in her home turf), yet its "Perry or Romney".

Yep - they are the status quo neocon candidates alright, that the mainstream will have us choose by bamboozling folks on their teleboxes and interwebs.

Ultimately it is down to the voters, and if comment threads on the internet are anything to go by, and google trends, Paul & then Bachmann.

Perry/Romney are the globalist/corporatist/establishment choice.