Republicans are getting more conservative, which helps explain the predominant GOP views on the debt ceiling, but also makes Romney’s continued support a puzzle

Ryan Streeter
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Nate Silver’s post yesterday on political ideology is worth a look.

His charts show that the Democrats are more ideologically diverse than Republicans, who are trending in a much more conservative direction. Hence his conclusion that Republicans are not in a position to compromise on the debt ceiling.

Here’s the mix of conservative-moderate-liberal among Republicans over time: 

And here’s the same chart for Democrats:

 

One further application of Silver’s point, and one puzzle:

First, there is application for what he finds beyond the debt ceiling debate. These figures from Pew’s poll yesterday show that only wealthier Republicans or Republican-leaners support reducing the budget deficit more than leaving entitlements untouched:

When it comes to our deficit, mid- to lower-income Republicans resemble Democrats (though moderately so) more than their wealthier peers. This is why Democrats are demagoguing the Ryan plan as they are.

Second, it’s worth pointing out a puzzle for the Silver analysis: why is Mitt Romney doing so well? Ah, you might say, Bachmann’s surge shows just how thin his support among conservatives is. There is, to be sure, something to this. But when you look at Gallup’s numbers this week, Romney's favourability/unfavorability numbers are very strong (Bachmann’s and Cain’s are better, but Romney's close behind). Some significant portion of the polled public are true conservatives. That they support him as they do is a reality that can't be discounted.

Theoretically, Romney should be turning away conservatives in droves because of his wishy-washiness, but they’re still loving him more than Silver’s analysis suggests they should.