Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter
It’s looking like House Republicans stand the best chance of getting what they want by voting for what they don’t want.
What?
The Boehner plan, which falls far short of the objectives in the Cut, Cap, and Balance bill, appears to offer the best path toward what rank-and-file members want: serious spending cuts and fiscal solvency without raising taxes. Note that I said "path toward," not that the Boehner plan achieves these goals itself.
The only way ultimately to reach the goals House Republicans and millions of Americans want is to keep America fiscally sound enough through next year, and then win the White House and make gains in the Senate, so that real entitlement reform – and therefore real fiscal solvency – are possible.
The odds of success next year are better than ever. More on that in a minute.
Supporting the Boehner plan requires adopting a 16-month strategic view, not just a view toward making a strong policy statement in the course of the next week.
This is why the Wall Street Journal editors say this morning that failing to support Boehner ultimately has the GOP playing into Obama’s hands:
The reality is that the debt limit will be raised one way or another, and the only issue now is with how much fiscal reform and what political fallout. If the Boehner plan fails in the House, the advantage shifts to Mr. Reid's Senate plan...It's true that the Boehner plan doesn't solve the long-term debt problem, but Mr. Obama won't agree to anything that does.
This is also why Paul Ryan took to National Review late yesterday to say that, even though the bill is far from perfect, he supports “this reasonable, responsible effort to cut government spending, avoid a default, and help create a better environment for job creation.” The reason is straightforward: the GOP only controls one half of one third of the government, so this is the best it can hope for (subject to figuring out how to get the $850 billion in cuts in the current CBO analysis of Boehner’s plan up to the $1 trillion he promised). GOP leaders are hoping the “Ryan effect” will temper a rank-and-file animus driven by a belief that standing so firmly on principle will lead to a default for which the public will blame Obama, not them.
Which brings us back to the point about the odds of success for next year. In 2010, and since then in the polls, independents have sided more with Republicans on spending issues than Democrats. They are sick of Washington’s over-reach. But they are also unlikely to go along with the rank-and-file objectives of the House if that means default and worsening economic conditions. And Republicans need independents in a big way in 2012. Losing them by standing on principle – especially when standing on principle won’t get us any closer to our goals – is ultimately self-defeating.
To understand the importance of independents next year, read Jay Cost’s useful article this morning at the Weekly Standard. He shows how Obama’s declining support among independents has made him vulnerable. After assembling various data points, Cost ends with the following chart, which projects how Obama would do under three different scenarios, each of which is based on different levels of Democratic turnout in past elections.
It’s clear that under any scenario Obama is in trouble. The more 2012 can look like 2010 (red line), however, the better. And key to this is to (1) keep America’s fiscal condition operable over the next year and (2) put Obama on his heels by making 2012 about his fiscal and spending records. The Boehner plan does that. The House Cut, Cap, and Balance plan – though it is the best plan, hands down – does not.
Comments