Ryan Streeter
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This might be hard to do, but let’s imagine for a minute that in the next five years, Republicans pull off the following:
- Kick Obama out of the White House in 2012
- Win the Senate, and keep the House
- Repeal ObamaCare
- Get lower personal and corporate tax rates, and simplify the tax code
- Adopt the Ryan plan for Medicare, and make changes (means-test, raise age limit, change cost of living adjustments) to Social Security so that it’s solvent
Sounds like paradise, doesn’t it?
Well, not exactly. Why?
Because it’s still going to take a long time to pay down our debt and get our fiscal house in order (the Ryan plan doesn’t balance the budget until the 2030s…it takes awhile to pay off so many years of profligacy). And while we’re doing that...
- ...the percentage of young workers who are actually working is at its lowest level in 60 years. The job market for people who are supposed to be bright-eyed and full of ambition is pretty lousy, which is both an effect of a bad economy and caused by a cultural problem among younger workers (especially men) who are taking longer to grow up and get a job.
- ...the percentage of working age people who are working overall (i.e., not just young people) is lower than Europe’s. That’s depressing. And embarrassing. And the trend was well underway before the recession. It's going to be awhile before we reverse this trend toward non-work.
- ...our “most undemocratic recovery” has brought aspiration – that truly American virtue – to a low. Joel Kotkin recently used this line to describe the reality felt by many Americans that all gains since the recession have accrued at the top. This breeds cynicism, which is contagious, gets passed to children, etc. None of that is good for the future.
- ...middle class wages will remain stagnant if all we do is repeal ObamaCare. We need health care reform to create a consumer-driven healthcare marketplace. The obscene growth in healthcare costs – and hence insurance premiums – kept wages flat as employers spent more on benefits.
- ...the American Dream is in question. We’ve recently defined the Dream by homeownership. That’s largely over, and as Walter Russell Mead has argued, the question is whether we can reorient the Dream around new business enterprise.
- ...new households are forming at incredibly low rates. This stems largely from people not marrying like they used to, and it’s compounded by the vast number of young Americans living with their parents while looking for work. This means people aren’t looking for housing. And more than that, it means they’re not having kids…which is bad for the future.
The point in all of this is straightforward: even if we get the right long-term policies in place on the debt and deficit, we still have a huge uphill climb to reinvigorate our economy and, most importantly, to renew the sense of aspiration among younger workers that has always been the hallmark of America.
Even if we conservatives get all we want, don't be surprised if pessimism about the future continues.
We’re still waiting for one of the Republican presidential candidates to understand all of this. At some level, most Americans get it. But who will lead with the right mix of aspiration and pragmatic solutions is anyone's guess.
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