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Will Wilkinson has a distinct advantage being out there in Iowa. He gets to see the candidates as they roll through.
Responding to Jonathan Chait's claim that the GOP can't appreciate moderation, preferring ideological zeal and purity instead, which explains Bachmann's rapid rise, Wilkinson writes:
Having recently seen Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, and Ms Bachmann in the flesh, I can say that the competence gap between Mr Romney and the two tea-party darlings is significant and not so hard to see. Mr Romney's resume is plainly better, and it shows. He speaks about policy with a level of thoughtful specificity neither Mr Cain nor Ms Bachmann can manage. It will not surprise me if Ms Bachmann is able to parlay her tea-party popularity and Iowa roots into a victory in Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. But conservative voters aren't as blinkered as Mr Chait implies. As the campaign wears on, and Republican voters grow more familiar with the candidates, the advantages of experience and electability will become ever more salient.
This is one man's view, but he's got a point. There is the matter of depth or gravitas in a candidate, and grassroots conservatives are not oblivious to it despite what the chattering left thinks of them.
My view is that Bachmann's rise is owing in part to her possessing more gravitas, or depth, than people originally gave her credit for. Let's face it, the bar of expectation for her was pretty low, and she has exceeded it by far. This has resulted in a string of glowing accounts of her, as Bill Kristol notes today.
But this doesn't mean that voters will continue to hold this view the longer they know her. Only time will tell us that. I agree with Wilkinson that all signs point toward her falling from her peak at some point, probably sooner than later.
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