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The new Washington Post/ABC poll shows what every fair-minded political observer knows: the economy is a big problem for Barack Obama. As Jonah Goldberg writes today, no President has acted as though he “runs” the economy as much as Obama. This has now created big problems for the President and offers a big opportunity to Republicans.
The Post/ABC poll shows Americans evenly divided on how Obama is doing his job overall, but when it comes to the economy, they disapprove by a 59%-40% margin.
And when it comes to the deficit, they disapprove by a 61%-33% margin.
These views are underwritten by a continuing gloomy outlook among the American populace as a whole: Sixty-six percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 57% do not think an economic recovery has begun. These lousy figures are probably part of the reason the poll also shows business executive Mitt Romney leading Obama by a slight margin among registered voters. On top of all this, Obama has lost the "bin Laden bounce."
The President has other reasons to worry, too. While the headlines yesterday on a new Pew poll pointed out that older Americans don’t like the GOP Medicare plan (which wouldn’t affect them, actually), the more interesting result was that younger voters prefer the GOP plan by a significant margin. How that will translate into votes in 2012 is anyone’s guess, but it suggests that a demographic that went wildly for Obama in 2008 is up for grabs in at least some key respects.
This all has some important implications for GOP candidates in 2012:
- Make the message simple, like this: Life should cost less, and Americans should earn more. The deficit and rising food and energy prices are creating a sense among voters that life is just too expensive and will remain that way. Policymakers should be focused like a laser on boosting disposable income and reducing the cost of living.
- Jobs growth is about enterprise growth. We need an enterprise economy, one in which new enterprises start at a faster rate. It’s not just about adding jobs at big companies. It’s about creating new companies. This should be the topline message for a serious attempt to change the tax code and simplify regulations, which are the biggest levers lawmakers have to spur growth.
- Entitlement reform is about a new contract with the rising generation. Even though many in the GOP are timid about entitlement reform, the fact is that the House went all-in on its Medicare plan (all but four votes, that is), and there’s no turning back. This should be a major sparring topic among 2012 White House contenders as a way to continue to educate the public. The message is getting through to younger voters. Even though the reforms won’t affect older voters, the GOP still needs to get through to them given the sizeable voting bloc they represent.
- Health care reform is about choice and enterprise. Repealing ObamaCare is popular with conservative voters, but replacing it with the kinds of market-based reforms many Republicans have promoted will be key to broadening the base of support. And replacing it is key to creating an enterprise culture. A recent study shows that 36% of the income gains between 1999 and 2007 were owing to rising health care costs, not real increases in wages, and the trend is only worsening. Health care is stifling Americans ability to get ahead.
These are the key topline points that should define the next 18 months. Other than education, which sits too much on the sidelines and should be a central part of our debate about our future workforce, we should tactically set most other issues to the side as a matter of debate. The 2012 election will be about the economy and the deficit. This bodes well for Republicans, who are at present the only real reformers in the public square when it comes to these issues.
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