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June 23, 2011

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Dave Bush

I can think of at least 10 reasons why Obama will be re-elected. They are the Republican candidates arrayed in front of him!

Mark hudson

I would dearly love to believe the above. However, I think that the GOP will probably shoot itself in the feet, arms and possibly the head in 2012. Unless God has a really cruel sense of humour, the nominee will not fortunately be Palin or Bachmann, but their malign influence in the primaries could easily make the eventual GOP ticket unelectable. Personally, I would go for HUNTSMAN-JINDAL. Anyway, I just hope that the congressional elections are better for the Republicans than the presidential one is likely to be.

mike hartley

The Republican Party left planet earth in about 2001 and never returned. The very fact that Michelle Bachmann is seen as a contender for a Republican presidential nomination sums up their problem.

It would be the equivalent of a Tory Party in the UK led by Daniel Hannan.

Correctus

"The last president re-elected with unemployment over 7.2% was FDR in 1936"

Actually it was Ronald Reagan in 1984!!!

martin sewell

Tim, There are six other important factors in the arithmetic for the next US Presidential election which places Obama in difficulty.

First, and obviously, you can stack up as many more votes as you like in California and New York - he will not get any more electoral college votes there. It comes down to vote distribution. Obama will no more win Texas than the unknown Republican will win New York.

Second the President will have to play defence this time around. He will raise a lot of money but will have to waste much of it holding what he has in unpromising circumstances. Probably 8 States will make the difference and few look good for him.

Third, three of his successes last time around were in Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia, big States with 39 Electoral college votes between them. These are States the Democrats never usually win, and in the circumstances you describe are almost inevitably heading into the Red column. 2004 was more “ normal” than 2008.

Fourth as I calculate the change in electoral vote distribution the Republicans will gain 8 electoral college votes if the states won remained exactly as last time whilst the Democrats will be down 6. The big Republican gainers are - Texas 4 Florida 2 and the additional ones are all “safe” - Utah, Georgia, South Carolina. Only Louisiana loses 1 for the Republicans.

Firth, even in Obama’s breakthrough year of 2008, he was losing to McCain in all the swing States until September when the financial crash demolished all prospects of a Republican victory. Given how tough it was even then for him to carry confidence, he is in deeper difficulty now he is about to experience reverse swing in a powerful and statistically irrefutable economic climate.

Six, 30% of Americans say they will definitely support Obama next time araound.37% will definitely not. Do not underestimate the power of that that brilliant line buried like a land mine deep in the psyche of the American working class by the beauteous Sarah.
“ How’s that hopey changey thing working out for y’all?” She will hold his toes to the fire for such rhetoric. She may not be the winner, but she may well prove to be the king maker with such plain speaking to those who may yet be detached from supporting the President.

Andrew Smith

The following words could apply to David Cameron: "[disaffection from] older voters, whites and college graduates in particular. He has a particular problem with his base. The Left [actually, HIS left] are beginning to grumble," and "He's defending unpopular policies.."

Dawn Carpenter

A Tory Party led by Dan Hannan? YES!1!

By the time Europe has imploded, the European Central Bank has collapsed, and half a dozen countries have left the EU, Dan Hannan might well be Prime Minister.

And America, a free, sovereign nation, will still be free.

FaustiesBlog

The 'mainstream' media seems to be ignoring Ron Paul completely.

Whether or not he has a chance of winning the presidency, the Ron Paul effect is huge enough to have injected the Tea Party spirit - or more accurately, libertarianism - into proceedings.

The neo-cons do not resonate with the electorate, despite what the leftie press says!

Anon R

It shows the true heart of UK Tories that some of your posters favour the defeat of Obama !How much longer can a Lib Dem back a Coalition containing such people ?

Cleethorpes Rock

Faustie, I love Ron Paul, but have to admit, there's more liklihood of Ru Paul getting the Republican nomination.

Amused Socialist

But Obama got Usama!

That alone will give him a second term. The GOP will install a tea party nut job, or worse a mormon-wall-street guy and lose California, Ohio and Florida. Obama then wins.

Also, the president has a ferocious ground operation and an unrivalled emailing list; infrastructure that any GOP challenger will struggle to compete with.

Americans dont like being wrong, and getting rid of a president after one term is a tacit acknowledgement that they made a mistake. Obama's favourability ratings are still higher than Reagan and Clinton - a far more accurate measure of his popularity.

The only man, imho, that could beat Obama is NJ govenor Chris Christie; a politician who could outflank the president in working class, industial states whilst carrying the red neck base. He is not running however....

Matthew Reynolds

Obama has falling poll numbers on the back of an economy surging towards a Depression.Many of the indicators place the US economy in a worse situation than in the last Great Depression.Al Gore sums up how upset the left are- they sat on their hands and saw the GOP take the House with 65 net gains in November 2010.The American people have had enough of bail-outs,debt & deficit and the nationalisation of one sixth of the US economy.Obama said that unemployment would not top 8% & that his Healthcare reforms would produce jobs.Well unemployment is 9.1% and the situation of uncertainty as regards the cost to business of Obama Care is deterring the private sector investment needed to create jobs.

In 1992 people said that the incumbent President was invincible & that the Democrats had a weak field of possible presidential candidates.Back then the economy was sour.What happened was that the Democrat Bill Clinton unseated a sitting President by fighting on the economy.

So the GOP can retake the presidency & the Senate while strengthening their grip on the House.By fighting hard on the economy and pushing the sort of agenda that served to retake the House last year the Republicans can defeat Obama.

Eldon James

It is very well known to brokerage houses and securities dealers that the retail stock purchaser, the middle-class "little guy" has not particpated in the market's run-up rigged by Fed's $600 Billion cheap money dump.

Why? Same reason small business owners haven't started hiring: Obama's economic policies and general vilification of private enterprise scare them to death.

Obama will loose in a landslde as people vote their pocketbook. Then, finally, the economy will turn... straight up.

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