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Dorothy Rabinowitz writes in today's Wall Street Journal:
The Republican who wants to win would avoid talk of the costs that our spendthrift ways, particularly benefits like Social Security, are supposedly heaping on future generations. He would especially avoid painting images of the pain Americans feel at burdening their children and grandchildren. This high-minded talk, rooted in fantasy, isn't going to warm the hearts of voters of mature age—and they are legion—who feel no such pain. None...The Republican who wins will have to know, and show that he knows, that most Americans aren't sitting around worried to death about big government—they're worried about jobs and what they have in savings.
This has a compelling rationale to it, but it is a curious claim. It is clear that voters are incredibly frustrated by America's economic condition and want to see politicians talking more about jobs. And it’s clear that many Americans are down on the GOP plan to reform Medicare. But that doesn’t mean that the 2012 candidate shouldn’t talk loudly about the chief drivers of our fiscal problems.
Public opinion is impressionable. Strong political leadership can affect it a great deal. There are a number of reasons why the GOP frontrunner should want to talk about what Ms. Rabinowitz says he or she shouldn’t discuss:
- Paul Ryan has risen to be the face of the GOP precisely by talking about Social Security and Medicare. It was an unlikely rise, and one that many observers said couldn’t possibly happen. But it has. In fact, his persistence has now so firmly situated the issue of entitlement reform in the 2012 debate that GOP contenders have no choice but to talk about it. Rather than run from the Ryan example, the odds are that the candidate who best embodies the example will do well.
- Actually, Americans are sitting around worrying about big government. Now, maybe it’s not “most” Americans. But it's a significant percentage of likely voters. It’s certainly not just Republicans. Independents have consistently trended in a Republican direction on spending issues than toward Democrats. Last November provided some good evidence of just how a large cross section of Americans feel about how big government has grown.
- No GOP contender has to date proposed any plan that would change anything for seniors, just as the House GOP plan leaves people over 55 untouched. The message about burdening the future generation is for the future generation. The GOP frontrunner should talk about this issue precisely as a way to reach the working age population and build political will for real reform among those who still have a number of working years ahead of them. And he or she should continue to be clear that it has nothing to do with the benefits for those who have “paid into” the system their whole lives. The Democrats will demagogue the senior issue anyway, so being clear about a solid GOP alternative isn’t really something the GOP candidate has much say over. Better to make it a talking point, and be consistently clear about it.
- Voters of a “mature age” have, as a whole, less to worry about on the jobs front than younger Americans, whose job prospects are woven together with our fiscal situation. As a group, older Americans own most of the nation’s wealth. There’s a large working population that is worried about jobs and about government’s size. The candidate’s job is to tie those two issues together, and to do so precisely by talking about the biggest long-term drivers of government's growth: entitlements. It’s an important way to draw a contrast with Obama, who will also be talking a lot about jobs but will conspicuously avoid the big cost issues, as he is wont to do.
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