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Paul Ryan is fond of saying that our entitlement-driven debt crisis is the most predictable of crises we have faced. One might say that a Gingrich self-implosion has been the most predictable political act of the 2012 campaign. It just didn’t seem it would happen so early.
A friend of mine who used to work for Gingrich predicted before the former Speaker got into the race that Gingrich would shoot himself in the foot, if not head, within a matter of months of declaring. The only surprise factor among those who know Gingrich is how quickly this happened.
Newt will continue to run his campaign, somehow, but it’s pretty clear it’s over.
Enter Rick Perry. It has been looking more likely in recent days that he would get in, and now the Gingrich Staff Exodus all but lays the groundwork for a Perry candidacy. As has been reported, Perry's former operatives were a part of the Exodus. That is certainly a factor, but even without it, a Perry candidacy is bolstered by Gingrich's implosion because, for all his faults, Gingrich has been a standard-bearer for conservatism itself in a way that other candidates are not, which creates an opportunity for Perry. His strong conservative record in Texas matches Gingrich's many ideas with many actions.
A few observations are in order as we look at Perry:
Conservatives will like him. He has all the Tea Party animus and more when it comes to opposing Washington’s role as the source of so many of our problems. He would win over hoards of primary voters with his big-hatted Texas confidence and indisputably conservative record. Conservative voters are dissatisfied enough with the field that Perry could win them over in droves pretty quickly. For an overview of his conservatism, see Kevin Williamson’s recent feature on Perry.
Unlike other candidates, his record as Governor is something worth celebrating. The erstwhile governors in the race are actually struggling with their gubernatorial records. Pawlenty’s is too amorphous (who can name the “x” in “You know, when Pawlenty was Governor, he hit the ball out of the park when he did x”?). And Romney, of course, has his health care law hanging like a iron weight around his neck. Perry, on the other hand, has presided over a state that has been the subject of countless articles, news features, and comparisons with California – all because Texas has become a migration magnet, a destination for people of all stripes seeking opportunity. The U.S. jobs numbers would be noticeably worse without Texas, which has been responsible for a vast sum of America’s new jobs over the past decade. With Mitch Daniels out, Perry could easily claim the mantle of the “reform Governor,” and point to myriad data points to justify the claim.
The Texas thing. It remains unknown whether America is ready for another Texas governor. Would Perry remind too many independents during a general election of the Bush they were in large part voting against back in 2008 when they supported Obama? It also remains unknown whether a reportedly strained relationship with the Bushes would help or hurt him, or matter at all. But one thing we can be sure of: the media and the Democrats would make a big deal of the Texas thing.
The reluctant candidate factor. Voters are ready for someone to jump into the race who is called by the times, so to speak – someone who’s getting in for all the right reasons, to help tackle our nation's problems rather than add the killer of all job titles to his resume. This is why Paul Ryan should run. It’s also part of the reason why there was so much pent-up enthusiasm about a Mitch Daniels campaign. One of Romney's problems is that he’s been running since 2007. Pawlenty has a bit of this baggage, too. But Perry was very clear he had no interest in the miserable job there at 1600 Pennsylvania, and he could easily claim – if he runs – that he’s getting in because “the people have called.”
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