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PPP released a poll today showing Michele Bachmann polling at the top of the pack in Oregon and Montana when Sarah Palin isn't included in the field. More evidence that Bachmann's strong rollout is paying dividends for her.
Digging into the numbers, it looks pretty clear that what most suspect is indeed the case: her big bump is coming from enthusiasm among the most conservative voters:
In both states Bachmann's support is built on strong support from the far right. In Oregon moderates prefer Romney over her by a 39-15 margin and 'somewhat conservatives' ones favor him by a 29-22 margin as well. But with 'very conservative' voters, which constitute the largest share of the primary electorate at 44%, Bachmann leads 37-26 and that fuels her small overall lead. It's a similar story in Montana. Romney leads 21-13 with moderates and 26-22 with 'somewhat conservative' voters. But Bachmann is up 34-19 with 'very conservative' voters and with their constituting 39% of Republican voters that gives her the upper hand overall.
Her overall lead on Romney is narrow, which bodes well for him overall: he can do well in the primary with these numbers, and better in the general. Bachmann at this point - just out of the gates - has a long way to go to persuade moderates to follow her.
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