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The battle lines between various factions within the GOP may be more interesting going into 2012 than the lines that separate Republicans from Democrats.
There are five main lines separating Republicans from each other. The divisions will become more important as we head toward 2012.
Some of the lines exist because of politics – namely, some think an issue should be handled one way while the GOP only controls the House, and handled another once the party takes the White House. But, in general, the following five lines separate party members – and activists within the conservative movement - from one another on deeper, more philosophical grounds.
1. Reforming entitlements. The Ryan budget has forced the debate. The entire GOP was for Ryan’s plan…before they were against it…before they were for it again. John Boehner caused some confusion by saying he wasn’t wedded to Medicare reform, and Dave Camp signaled it was time to set it aside. But then the GOP House leadership issued a statement last Friday to clear up any confusion and to proclaim unity. On the 2012 presidential front, Pawlenty and Gingrich already signaled they might pursue a different track than what Ryan proposed.
2. Reforming the tax code. In general everyone’s for “fundamental tax reform” as an essential ingredient of stronger economic growth. But the Coburn-Norquist spat casts the battle lines in full relief. Grover’s tough stance on tax rates hasn’t been matched by a tough stance on the junk in the tax code, as the Examiner recently pointed out. Who will support the elimination of the myriad deductions, exemptions and credits that have made our tax code immensely complex? And who won’t? Everyone supports lower tax rates. Not everyone supports a simpler tax code. This latter issue will become the mother of all political battles if and when lawmakers take it on. You thought spending cuts were tough to debate. Wait until Congress starts messing with the tax code in a serious way. Can you say no more mortgage interest deduction?
3. Repealing ObamaCare. Repeal remains the overarching goal of most Republicans and the Tea Party. And yet health care costs were out of control before ObamaCare, eating up larger shares of employees’ overall compensation. This has been one of the main reasons so many workers have seen their wages stay flat for awhile now. Their bosses can’t give them raises because they’re spending so much more each year on insurance premiums. Repealing ObamaCare won’t fix this problem, though it would be better than keeping the law in place. The Ryan budget only offers repeal. And yet some argue for replacing the law (not just repealing it) with substantial cost-containing reforms, such as the credit that Ramesh Ponnuru and Yuval Levin have proposed.
4. Changing education. This issue hasn’t risen to the surface as health care and entitlement reform have, but it’s huge. Similar to the health care debate, there is a large and loud chorus that would prefer to repeal No Child Left Behind, returning education completely to the state level. But, as Wisconsin has reminded us, "state level" also means union-dominated school districts. This issue will force 2012 candidates to say where they stand not merely on whether to repeal NCLB, but on a larger issue: is there a role for the federal government in education? If NCLB isn’t the right path, what is the role for the feds? Given our lousy educational performance compared to other countries, and given how globalized our competition for workers has become, isn’t improving educational outcomes a national priority? These questions have been forming battle lines on K-12 education, and increasingly will do the same regarding college education as the returns to postsecondary education seems more and more limited all the time (and if the so-called college bubble really bursts in a big way, some will try to federalize the issue even more).
5. Fighting over there. The American public, including many Republicans, is growing weary of our protracted engagement in Afghanistan. Are we still fighting al Qaeda there, and if not, why are we there? This battle is set against the spending debate: some conservatives see the expense of the effort as a main reason to prioritize withdrawal. Killing Osama bin Laden provided them with a concrete sign of victory, and therefore a clear benchmark for ending operations in the region. But the region still does plenty to create the “safe haven” for terrorists that we went over there to destroy – therefore requiring us to continue the fight. This line will only shine more brightly in coming months.
These five battle lines will be at the heart of all significant internecine squabbling within the GOP in the coming months – even years. This is because they represent the real, existing philosophical divides within not just the party but the conservative movement as a whole.
Should we end middle class entitlements?
Should we continue to deliver benefits, especially to higher earners, through the tax code?
Does the federal government have a role in setting standards for education in today’s global economy?
Should we pursue reforms radical enough to significantly slow the growth in health care costs that we saw pre-ObamaCare?
Do we keep up the fight in the war on terror or begin to pull back?
The GOP is trying to maintain a united front, but these questions divide the party in serious ways.
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