Ryan Streeter
Via Taegan Goddard, here is a projection showing that Republicans will win 238 seats in the House in 2012 (they currently hold 241).
It's a statistical model run by a senior at Dartmouth named Harry Enten, but don't let his age or relative obscurity discount the value of the model.
His calculations take into account the percentage of seats won by a party in the last election, the percentage of the vote the party controlling the White House wins when it also controls the House, and a few "dummy" variables related to which parties control which part of the government.
As justification for the method he says all you have to do is look at the past.
The model, he says, "is able to account for 95.9% of the difference in the results of the 15 Presidential year House elections since 1952."
File this one away until Nov. 2012, and we'll see how well Enten's model works.
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