Ryan Streeter
Two interesting findings in today’s poll data:
First, Gallup released poll numbers today showing that 70% of Americans believe the Republican Party should consider the Tea Party’s ideas as important. Of these, 53% of Republicans and 46% of Independents said the GOP should consider the grassroots movement’s ideas “very important.”
The Tea Party has favorability ratings in the Gallup poll lower than those of the Republican Party, and yet voters think it’s influence should be felt.
Second, in Pew’s release of its Daily Numbers, we see a significant drop over a three year period in the number of Hispanics who view the contribution of illegal immigrants (or what Pew calls “unauthorized” immigration) in a positive light. Between 2007 and 2010, the share of Hispanics holding a positive view of the contribution of illegal immigrants dropped from 51% to 30%, while the share holding a negative view rose from 20% to 31%.
The net effect is that roughly an equal share of Hispanics now view illegal immigrants’ effect on America positively and negatively, a big shift from the rather lop-sided scale in 2007.
Much was made up and through the 2010 elections of the Tea Party’s anti-immigrant animus, and indeed, there were tea partiers out there saying some pretty awful things. But we shouldn’t allow them to paint the picture for us. Something more general is likely at work.
The most likely hypothesis would be that in challenging economic times, the overall effect of an illegal immigrant population will be viewed more negatively by more people, both Hispanic and non-Hispanic. Illegal immigrants would more likely be viewed as taking jobs the unemployed would like to have, and as a greater social burden as they consume healthcare and other resources that the citizen population has to pay for.
What is interesting from both of these polls is the conclusion that even though the Tea Party may be viewed unfavorably by a majority of Americans, its influence is respected, and its negative view of illegal immigration actually seems to be shared by a growing number of Hispanics.
This all suggests that the mood of the country is much closer to the Tea Party’s mood, even if the movement itself is held in suspicion. This doesn't mean, of course, that the GOP stands to gain among Hispanics on account of this issue, but it does suggest that continuing to regard the Hispanic population in a monolithic way is inconsistent with how it is changing.
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