Ryan Streeter
Ronald Brownstein has written an important feature in National Journal about what he calls the divide between the "managers" and the "populists" emerging as contenders for the Republican nomination in 2012.
Brownstein says that while some GOP candidates (Reagan and G.W. Bush) have combined both populist and managerial elements, Republicans have typically been attracted to managerial types. But this is changing, he says:
The demographic balance of power inside the GOP coalition is shifting downscale, a change that could provide a greater opening for the populists, including Palin if she runs. The party’s new tilt could also produce a 2012 race that divides the GOP much more than before along lines of class and education.
He highlights Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin as especially emblematic of this divide. Will Republicans go for the boardroom-savvy Romney or gun-slinging Palin? And does this ultimately matter? (Incidentally, ConservativeHome's panel survey of grassroots Republicans has asked them to assess both Palin and Romney.)
Brownstein is right that class divides will matter a lot in determining what kind of leader Republican go after. But class isn't the only thing, and this is where his analysis fall short. There are some shared values between both the managerial-prone and populist voters that will likely matter more than how much education they have or how much money they make.
Voters of all stripes are fed up with spending. Perhaps populists are more energized on this issue, but the profligacy in Washington cuts across the party, and voters are looking for someone who can deliver restraint rather than talking about it. Jobs and economic growth are also important, and conservative voters have shown - regardless of their class - that they don't like class warfare. Lower income conservatives are generally fine with tax cuts for wealthier people if it means more economic growth.
So, in the end, the candidate that connects with people's real concerns (which our poll shows Romney isn't doing very well) and appears to be a serious leader (which our poll suggests Palin isn't) will do well. The vote will be about principles and values more than class.
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