Ryan Streeter
The “American middle” presents some real challenges and opportunities for Republicans. I would argue it will make or break the Republicans’ chance of becoming the dominant party over the next decade.
There are actually three American middles that will affect the future of the GOP more than the GOP seems willing to think about right now:
The middle class. Americans across the broad stretch of the income scale are not just feeling squeezed; they are squeezed. Rising health care costs and diminishing returns to education have hurt wages. Rising divorce has added not only social but also new financial strains. Changes in America’s manufacturing sector have made formerly valued professions worthless. Unemployment is at 15% for those without college degrees. People might disagree whether the middle class is in crisis, but it’s clearly in the midst of a prolonged, difficult state.
Republicans did well among middle class voters in November, but I think most people realize that voters could turn on a dime if their frustrations aren’t addressed.
The middle of the electorate, or independent voters. As Joel Kotkin noted this week, young voters and Latinos will present a big problem for the GOP if the party doesn’t aggressively court them, as they will both likely trend leftward if the GOP continues status quo policies. Then there’s the swelling suburban population that Kotkin notes is less and less the domain of either party. Winning these three groups (and there is some overlap between them) today could provide the base of the party of the future.
Middle America. By this I mean the non-coastal parts of the country, marked by mid-size and smaller cities rather than the traditionally large urban areas. This, as Kotkin notes, is where the most energetic growth is occurring (in economic and population terms). The GOP should aim to be the party that advocates policies most amenable to these places’ continued prosperity.
Each of these three middles presents a policy challenge to the Republican party.
Will Republican leaders take seriously the issue of wage growth among the middle class? Let’s hope so, even if I have my doubts. They can start with the few nuggets in this week’s ConservativeHome mini-symposium on the middle class.
Will Republicans develop a broad enough set of policy alternatives on immigration and economic growth to continue to make gains among Hispanics, and will they have a positive set of policies on, say, the environment to appeal to younger voters? The GOP is still very much the Party of No to these groups.
What can Republicans learn from high-growth areas? They should be modeling policy on what is succeeding right now. The GOP has a history of using states as laboratories for reform. “Growth” is a popular word these days, but it’s going to take a lot more than continuing the current tax rates to achieve. The growing regions of the country are a roadmap for the kinds of policies we need.
We will be returning to these themes regularly. A battle is on for the American middle, even if neither party has completely realized it yet.
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