The Midwest to Washington: Enough with all your help already

Ryan Streeter

Michael Barone's column today in today's Washington Examiner breaks down November 2 and is, as usual, filled with interesting points. Consider what he says about the heartland's break from its past electoral behavior:

The long-standing rule in American politics is that in times of economic distress, the industrial heartland -- the Rust Belt -- trends toward the Democrats. Voters evidently see more government spending as a solution.

Not this year. Republicans won Senate or governor races or both in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan. They captured five House seats in Pennsylvania, five in Ohio, two in Indiana, four in Illinois and two in Michigan. You might want to add the five they captured in upstate New York. That's 23 of the 39 seats they needed for a House majority.

Republican gains in state legislatures were even more impressive. They will control the redistricting process in four of the five states in this region...[T]he dominant message here is that government spending is the problem, not the solution

Barone points out that even the Finns (who knew we had 3 districts dominated by the typically left-leaning Finnish vote?) bucked the past and went red. 

Three quick points are worth noting:

1. Yes it's the economy but it's really spending, stupid. The heartland results are driven very much by a deep-rooted frustration that Washington has been tearing through cash like a drunken sailor while the rest of us are cutting back.
2. This was not an endorsement of Republicans. Old habits die hard, and these areas could easily swing back to the Democrats. Voters in the heartland fired the worst spenders, the Dems, but the Republicans should view their support as tenuous.
3. Following from points 1 and 2, it becomes clear that Republicans need to show disciplined idea leadership. Yesterday, Barone pointed out on ConservativeHome that "Republicans in 2010 were given control of one house of the legislative branch. In 2012 they will be asking for majorities in both houses and control of the executive branch as well--a harder sell. To gain that they must show that they have serious policy alternatives." 

In many ways Republican are racing against the clock in a difficult environment: they can't drive the policy agenda with Obama in the White House and the Democrats controlling the Senate, but they must drive it anyway.  If they don't, voters won't be patient, and 2012 could look much different than 2010.