Looking at the data from Nov. 2, we see that the GOP still has work to do

Ryan Streeter

I highly recommend this article at New Geography by Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais. It helps us to take a bit of a breather in the wake of the massive Republican tidal wave we have experienced and take stock of a few interesting bits of data.

Here are some key excerpts that I'll let speak for themselves:

A Pew survey taken just before the election indicated that the distribution of party identification within the electorate was little different in 2010 (49% Democratic to 39% Republican) than it was in either 2008 (51% to 36%) or 2006 (47% to 38%), two years in which Democrats won sweeping victories at the polls.

Nor did Election Day exit polls show a clear endorsement of GOP positions on key issues. Only half of the voters (48%) called for repeal of the Democratic healthcare reform law. About the same number (47%) wanted the law left as is or even expanded. Only four in ten voters (39%) favored extending the Bush-era tax cuts to all Americans, including those with incomes greater than $250,000. 

Moreover, exit polls indicated that although the Democrats lost some ground among almost all demographics, the composition of the two party’s coalitions remained largely unchanged. The votes of Millennials (57% Democratic to 40% Republican), African-Americans (90% to 9%), and Hispanics (64% to 34%) were only slightly altered from what they had been in 2006 and 2008. 

The GOP did strengthen its position within its core constituencies, winning solidly among men (56% Republican to 42% Democratic), as well as in the South, in rural areas, and among senior citizens, all of which voted Republican by about 1.5:1 margins.

The Republicans also made major gains in America’s suburbs, where the greatest number of Americans of all ethnicities and generations, including Democratic-leaning Millennials, African-Americans, and Hispanics, now live. Obama narrowly won the suburbs, 50% to 48%. In 2010, the GOP carried them even more decisively, 55% to 42%. Democratic losses in the suburbs were particularly great among white voters who had not completed college and were among those who had been most hurt by the Great Recession. 

Despite its massive gains on November 2, the GOP can't operate as though it has a mandate. They need to operate on the adage that smart business executives understand: you have to continue to woo people after you've hired them. The GOP will have to continue to woo those who took a bet on them this past election, and they're going to have to continue to court those key constituencies that still aren't with them but will be critical to their future success.