ConservativeHome's Survey blog

New poll: Grassroots conservatives warming to entitlement reform, but still wary of making the big changes

Ryan Streeter

In this week’s Republican Panel, ConservativeHome’s poll of self-described conservative Republicans, we find general support for making some of the changes necessary to reform Social Security and Medicare.

Respondents in the weekly poll have regularly supported making big spending cuts in Washington by overwhelming margins. However, when asked about reforming entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security, they have been less supportive in the past.

For instance, when asked what Congress should be doing to reduce the deficit, over half said spending cuts while a miniscule 3% said entitlement reform.

And when asked if they themselves would be willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits and to receive fewer benefits the wealthier they were, only a little more than a third said yes to both, while one in five opposed both. This suggests when asked about entitlement reforms in a personal way (“Would you be willing…”), support for reform drops.

This week we asked a question about entitlement reform this way:

Republicans in Congress plan to introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security in their budget this spring. Please check the box beside reforms that you support. Leave boxes unchecked if you DO NOT support the specific reform. [Note: Assume that the reforms listed below would not apply to anyone over age 55. Any feasible proposal will allow those at least 55 and over to stay in the current programs.]

The results show a healthy level of support for reform overall.

• 79% support allowing private savings accounts into which people can deposit some of their Social Security payroll taxes, if they choose
• 70% support raising the retirement age
• 51% support means-testing the programs (e.g., phase out benefits the wealthier the recipient)
• 39% support converting Medicare into a defined contribution program (i.e., a recipient receives a fixed amount each year from the government to use on health care, rather than having the government pay whatever amount of health care a recipient consumes, as is now the case)

 
Three observations:

1. Support is highest for the least consequential reform and lowest for the most consequential reform, so Republicans have some work to do. Private Social Security accounts should be central to a effort to reform Social Security, but they will have the smallest effect on cost-control. Defined contributions, which are central to Paul Ryan’s Roadmap, for instance, will have the greatest effect on cost control. This may simply be an issue of public communication and voter education.
2. Support is higher for raising the retirement age when reforms are de-personalized. 70% support raising the retirement age, but in a previous poll, when we asked “Are you willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits?” only 52% said yes. Having clarified in the question that reforms would not apply to people over 55 may have also boosted support.
3. Support for means-testing, while at 51%, is uncomfortably low among conservatives. The most likely reforms to find bipartisan support would be raising the retirement age and means-testing benefits. If only half of conservatives support the latter, we can expect much lower support among liberals, meaning that political resistance to the idea could be rather fierce.

We also asked respondents how pleased they are with how Republicans have been doing so far this year:

• 55% - Somewhat pleased
• 14% - Very pleased
• 13% - Neither pleased nor displeased
• 14% - Somewhat displeased
•   4% - Very displeased

These figures should be welcome news to Republicans. For grassroots conservatives who place a high value on spending restraint, the Republicans’ efforts on spending reduction have clearly created a favorable impression.

Knowing that respondents favor spending cuts by overwhelming margins, we asked this week about how closely those polled identify with the Tea Party:

• 58% - I sympathize with the Tea Party but don't consider myself a Tea Partier
• 35% - I’m a Tea Partier
•   4% - I don't sympathize with the Tea Party but I don't really have anything against it
•   2% - I really distrust the Tea Party
•   1% - I don't care for the Tea Party

This poll of the Republican Panel, which was assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, was conducted March7-9, 2011 among 734 conservative Republicans.

Cuts, cuts, cuts: Grassroots conservatives overwhelmingly want Republicans to focus on spending cuts, even if it means shutting down the government

Grassroots conservatives are still overwhelmingly preoccupied with spending cuts - so much so that they are quite content with the idea of a government shutdown if Democrats don't agree with Republican demands on cuts.

When asked what they most want to see congressional Republicans concentrating on, 53% say spending cuts. In a distant second is repealing ObamaCare, at 16.5%. Entitlement reform, which Republicans have promised in their spring budget, only garnered 9% of responses.

And when it comes to the question of a government shutdown, 71% of respondents say they think it is worth closing down the government if Democrats don't concede on the spending cuts that Republicans have proposed.

 

These results are from a survey of 536 conservatives in our Republican Panel conducted Feb. 27-28.  

78% of conservatives say Scott Walker is doing the right thing and shouldn't compromise

CBS trumpeted their survey this week as public support for organized labor. CBS's survey asked whether respondents thought public employees should have their pay and benefits cut so states could fix their deficit problems. 56% of respondents opposed pay and benefit cuts. A majority of respondents thought that government workers were compensated too little or about right, which probably helps explain the finding.

Our survey this week reveals a different kind of finding among grassroots conservatives. We asked about Gov. Scott Walker's handling of the standoff with organized labor in Wisconsin.

We gave respondents a choice between four options, asking them to choose which best reflects their view.

• 78% - Walker is doing the right thing and shouldn't compromise at all

• 13% - Walker should make public employees pay more into their retirement and health benefits but be willing to compromise on the rules governing collective bargaining

• 3% - Walker should be willing to compromise on all of the points under dispute

• 2% - Walker should try to end collective bargaining altogether

It's clear that conservatives overwhelmingly support the stance Walker is taking. It's also clear that they do not expect Walker to go farther than what he has proposed to end collective bargaining altogether.

These results are from a survey of 536 conservatives in our Republican Panel conducted Feb. 27-28. We will release more results from this survey tomorrow.

Conservative influencers and activists agree: Republicans should tackle entitlements this year rather than waiting until 2012

Conservative insiders and grassroots activists, whom we poll separately, may have different views on who emerged from CPAC as the strongest 2012 contender, but the are agreed on this: they both think Republicans should tackle entitlements this year in their budget rather than waiting until 2012 in hopes of a Republican occupying the White House.

• 62% of influencers said they thought Republicans should propose entitlement reform measures in their budget this spring, while 38% said they thought it better to hold off for now
• 65% of grassroots conservatives* said they thought Congress should introduce entitlement reforms this year, while 24% said they thought lawmakers should wait until 2012; and 5% said they thought Congress shouldn't touch entitlements at all.

These numbers bode well for the GOP leadership, who have been migrating toward an affirmative answer when asked whether they'll include entitlement reform in their budget this year. Of course, support for entitlement reform as a spending issue is different than support for entitlement reform perceived as a reduction in my benefits.

* Since our previous polling has shown that conservatives care about spending cuts over entitlement reform by a long shot, the question in the poll was worded this way: "Republicans are currently debating whether they should try to introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security this year in order to slow the growth of costs in those programs. Do you think they should introduce the reforms this year?" However, we have also learned that when presented with specific reforms such as raising the retirement age or means-testing benefits, conservatives grow less supportive of entitlement reform.

New Republican Panel Poll: Republican voters overwhelmingly want Congress to propose an alternative to Obamacare, not just repeal it

Sixty-nine percent of active Republican voters say they want Republicans to propose an alternative to Obamacare, not just repeal it.

Only 30 percent say that repeal is enough for them. Republican leaders have worked hard to push forward a "repeal-and-replace" message. That message appears to have gotten through. In addition, voters know that returning to the flawed health care system America had before Obamacare isn't enough. The appetite for alternatives is at a level that Republican leaders should regard as a mandate.

This week's Republican Panel surveys 890 self-identified Republicans, the majority of whom actively support candidates by donating time or money.

Other key findings this week:

• Cut spending!  More than repealing Obamacare, Republican voters want Congress to focus on cutting spending. 46% say cutting spending is what they want the GOP to focus on right now, and 34% say repealing Obamacare. Only 13% say creating jobs.
• Voters have been engaged in the debate about health care. Nearly half (46%) of Republican voters say they followed the House vote on Obamacare "very closely."
• No to debt ceiling hike. A majority (59%) of voters don't want Congress to raise the debt ceiling, even if it's done in exchange for spending cuts.

Active Republican voters are clearly informed and energized about the health care debate and the ongoing battle over federal spending.

Here are the results from this week's poll:

Do you think Republicans should be proposing an alternative to Obamacare, or is repealing Obamacare enough for you?

Right now, I mostly want Republicans to focus on:

Should Republicans agree to raising the nation's debt ceiling?

How closely have you been following coverage of the House vote to repeal Obamacare?

 

Middle class conservatives are down on the future, but they want lower taxes on individuals and businesses, and more entrepreneurship - not class warfare

Ryan Streeter

ConservativeHome’s weekly poll of grassroots conservatives reveals that middle class Republicans are largely pessimistic about their economic future but don't believe redistribution is the answer. 

Instead, they want lower taxes on their own income, lower taxes on businesses, and an environment friendlier to new firm creation. 

We polled 1,038 self-identified conservative Republicans last week about the middle class and its prospects. Respondents, all of whom are members of our Republican Panel, were identified for the panel by YouGov.

Three quarters of respondents consider themselves middle class or lower middle class, and 70% think their financial situation in 2011 will be the same or somewhat worse than 2010. And yet:

• Only 1% think unemployment benefits should be more generous, and 4% think inequality should be addressed by having the rich pay their fair share.
• 74% think that personal income tax rates should be lowered, and 57% think corporate income taxes should be lowered.

The politics of class resentment clearly don't play well among conservatives.

Like most Americans, conservative activists largely consider themselves middle class:

• 54% say they are middle class
• 21% say they are lower middle class
• 15% say they are upper middle class
• 9% say they are low income
• The rest, a small percentage, either said they were wealthy or poor

The majority of respondents believe that their financial situation will either remain the same or be worse in 2011 compared to this year.

• 41% say they expect their financial situation to be about the same next year as it was this year
• 29% say they expect their financial situation to be worse next year
• 16% say they expect their financial situation to be somewhat better next year
• 9% say they expect their financial situation to be a lot worse next year
• Only 4% say they expect their financial situation to be a lot better next year

When asked how lawmakers can help improve the prospects for ordinary families, respondents did not favor the class-warfare preferences of the liberal elite, but preferred rather conservative policies. They were asked to select their top 3 preferences.

• 74% prefer lower personal income taxes so that household disposable income increases
• 57% prefer lower corporate taxes so that firms have more money to hire people
• 44% prefer changes to regulations so that it's easier to start small businesses
• 31% prefer to reform the health care law to make health care less expensive
• 30% prefer to reduce the deficit by reforming Social Security and Medicare
• 18% prefer making it easier to save for the future
• 16% prefer reforming elementary and secondary education so the nation's young people are more equipped for tomorrow's jobs
• 8% prefer making rules for banks and investors clearer so they start investing more
• 6% prefer making it easier to refinance mortgages so fewer people default
• 4% prefer making it easier for more people to go to college or get a professional degree
• 4% prefer spending more government dollars on large infrastructure projects to create construction and technology jobs
• 4% prefer reducing inequality by making sure the wealthy pay their fair share to help the middle class and poorer families
• 1% prefer providing more generous benefits such as unemployment insurance

Conservative voters like Romney's executive experience but remain unconvinced that he is the leader America needs right now

 
This week, ConservativeHome polled 1,000 conservatives identified by YouGov for our Republican Panel. Those polled were asked for their views of Mitt Romney’s strengths and weaknesses.

Respondents were asked whether or not they agreed with a number of statements about Romney.

The main conclusions in summary:

• Romney’s executive experience plays well with conservatives
• Conservatives still hold the Massachusetts health care experience against him
• He is not yet inspiring confidence in his economic leadership
• He needs to do more to convince voters that he’s the leader the country needs to address today's big issues
• Pundits’ concerns about his flip-flopping and abortion record don’t bother conservative voters too much

Mitt Romney should take a number of important conclusions away from our survey results.

He should play up his executive experience

• 77% say that his business experience would make him a good President
• 70% say he’s a proven leader
• 66% say he’s a problem solver
• 63% say he would be very knowledgeable on all budgetary matters
• 57% say he would be a “really good fundraiser” during the campaign

He still has a lot of work to do to repair his reputation stemming from the Massachusetts health care experience

• 66% say it is “a big problem” for him 

He needs to work on inspiring confidence in his economic leadership and his ability to connect to issues on voters’ minds

• Only 36% say he would be the candidate most likely to get the American economy back on track
• 42% say he’s the kind of leader America needs right now, and 36% of respondents said they weren’t sure. Given that 70% say he’s a proven leader (see above), it’s significant that such a smaller percentage think he’s the leader the country needs right now.
• 33% say he doesn’t relate well to the average voter, while another 27% reserve judgment by saying they’re unsure on this point. 
• Only 23% say he is more electable than other potential candidates.

Concerns that are overplayed by pundits

• Only 26% say he is a flip-flopper
• Only 22% say his record on abortion bothers them.
• One might argue that these figures are still large enough to give Romney some concern, but they are clearly manageable.

> LAST WEEK THE PANEL JUDGED SARAH PALIN'S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Concerns over electability and opposition from senior Republican officials most likely to stop Palin winning the 2012 nomination

Over coming weeks ConservativeHome will be conducting in-depth polling of the Republican grassroots in order to establish the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential ambitions of the possible GOP nominees.

We start with Sarah Palin. The polling process has involved two steps and over 1,300 Republican activists identified by YouGov America. Activists and members of the ConservativeHome100 Panel of Influentials were asked to suggest strengths and weaknesses of Sarah Palin. We then went back to the activists with a short list of most suggested strengths and weaknesses and asked them to say whether they agreed or disagreed with them.

What is clear is that GOP members - although they have a positive overall view of Mrs Palin - are worried about three main aspects of her candidacy:

(1) Her electability - 51% agree that a less controversial candidate is more likely to beat Obama;

(2) Opposition to her candidacy from senior Republican officials - 70% agree that criticism from Republican leaders could wreck her chances;

(3) Her lack of experience - 51% think she was wrong to step down as Governor of Alaska.

If her opponents are to stop her candidacy they will probe these weaknesses. If Team Palin wants to inoculate their candidate they will address these weaknesses.

In the list of Sarah Palin's vulnerabilities (below) items 4 and 5 are most significant. If polls continue to show that candidates like Mitt Romney are more likely to beat Obama, the Republican grassroots could be persuaded to oppose her candidacy. It is likely that their desire to see Obama ousted will trump their support to see Palin elected. It is interesting that 42% of GOP activists agree that "she is good for supporting other candidates but shouldn't run herself". 42% disagree. That suggests there is significant awareness that there is a ceiling to her popularity.

The GOP grassroots reject the suggestion that she doesn't know enough about foreign policy or that she lacks intelligence. Her daughter's controversial behavior should also be out of bounds in GOP activists' view.

Sarah Palin's strengths are her courage, her "down home" way of communicating and her views on tax and Christian values.

Perhaps remembering her robust 2008 performance against Joe Biden, 60% think she would perform well in election debates.

SUMMARY OF ALL POLL FINDINGS

For each of the statements below we give the percentages agreeing and then disagreeing. For some statements the percentage of 'do not know' is quite large.

Sarah Palin's principal vulnerabilities in the eyes of Republican activists

1. Attacks from senior Republicans could wreck her candidacy 70/ 20
2. She sometimes says silly things 65/ 27
3. She was wrong to resign early as Governor of Alaska 51/ 35
4. A less controversial Republican is more likely to beat Obama 51/ 33
5. Mitt Romney is more likely than Palin to beat Obama 49/ 29
6. She is good for supporting other candidates but shouldn't run herself 42/ 42

Vulnerabilities that GOP activists reject as potent

• She doesn't know enough about foreign policy 36/ 47
• She relies on too many soundbites in speeches and interviews 30/ 52
• She should be ashamed of her daughter's behaviour 11/ 78
• She lacks intelligence 10/ 82

Strengths of Sarah Palin

• She has courage 95/ 3
• She has a "down home, folksy way" of communicating 93/ 5
• She will stick with her beliefs, whatever people throw at her 91/ 4
• She is very charismatic 89/ 7
• The Tea Party Movement loves her 88/ 2
• Her Christian beliefs are an asset 81/ 7
• I like her traditional views on abortion and homosexuality 80/ 11
• She will stop higher taxes 74/ 8
• She would do well in election debates 60/ 23
• It's time for a woman President 39/ 18

> Next up in this series: Mitt Romney. Then Jeb Bush.

The top ten pundits among Republican activists

1,152 Republican activists, as identified by YouGov America and polled by ConservativeHome.com, have chosen their favorite pundits.

These pundits, more than any other, will be the talking heads who will influence the choice of the GOP's nominee for 2012.

Republican activists were each asked to name their top three commentators. Here are the top ten they chose...

• The list reveals the massive gap between broadcast pundits and newspaper commentators.
• Limbaugh, for example, was named as a favorite by 41% of ConservativeHome's Republican Panel.
• Worryingly, columnists often regarded as among the most thoughtful conservatives did not fare well. David Brooks of the New York Times only mustered a mention from 1.3% of the panel (14 people). Ross Douthat, also at the NYT, won just four votes and Mike Gerson, Washington Post writer and former speechwriter to President Bush, gets just three mentions.
• Another former Bush speechwriter and Rush Limbaugh's leading critic, David Frum, only gets three mentions. Peggy Noonan, however, gets favorited 35 times.
• The ticket to high status is clearly Fox News. One of only two upmarket newspaper columnist to appear in the top ten being Charles Krauthammer, who combines his syndicated Washington Post column with his Fox punditry. He was named by 29% of grassroots Republicans. The other broadsheet columnist, at number ten, is George Will, syndicated Washington Post Op-Ed writer and ABC News veteran.

The total percentages for each of the top ten were*:

• Rush Limbaugh: 41%
• Glenn Beck: 33%
• Charles Krauthammer: 29%
• Bill O'Reilly: 24%
• Sean Hannity: 21%
• Newt Gingrich: 16%
• Michelle Malkin: 16%
• Mike Huckabee: 13%
• Ann Coulter: 13%
• George Will: 13%

* There were two phases to the voting process. Last week Panel members were asked to nominate favorite commentators. This week Panel members were presented with a list, derived from their nominations, and asked to vote for their three favorite.

> APPLY TO JOIN THE PANEL.

Conservative activists: give us private Social Security accounts, extend the Bush tax cuts for ALL income brackets, and replace Michael Steele

Ryan Streeter

The Republican Panel is ConservativeHome’s weekly poll of active conservatives across America.  More than two-thirds of respondents have given money or time to political candidates.

This week’s Republican Panel surveyed 1,066 individuals on 3 big issues facing the GOP and America: the Bush tax cuts, Social Security reform, and the leadership of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

Here's an overview of the results:

• Support for extending the Bush tax cuts for ALL income brackets – and not just the wealthy – is overwhelming: 86% of respondents hold this view. Clearly, grassroots conservatives favor equal treatment in the tax code when it comes to tax cuts.
• Support for private accounts in Social Security is also overwhelming, with 78% saying they believe people under 40 should be allowed to invest in private accounts rather than staying in the traditional program.
• A majority of conservatives believe that the Social Security retirement age should be raised for Americans under 40.
• And, finally, the largest share - 39% - of conservatives believe that Michael Steele should be replaced at the RNC. However, 25% of respondents have no opinion on the matter, suggesting real issues - such as taxes and Social Security - are more important to ordinary voters than the Washington political class.

The Bush tax cuts are set to expire at the end of the year unless Congress extends them. When asked their view of extending the cuts, here's how those polled responded: 

• 86% said the Bush tax cuts should be extended for all income brackets
• 10% said the Bush tax cuts should be extended for everyone except those earning more than $1 million
• 4% said the Bush tax cuts should be extended for everyone except those earning more than $250,000
• 1% said the Bush tax cuts should expire at the end of the year

78% of respondents favor allowing people under the age of 40 to begin investing in private savings accounts instead of paying into the traditional Social Security program.

55% of respondents support raising the Social Security retirement age to 70 for everyone under 40 years of age, compared to the 29% who do not. 

39% of respondents think that Michael Steele "has been a bad RNC chairman and should be replaced." 

And finally, when asked whether they are fiscally conservative, socially conservative, both or neither, the majority said both:

• 58% said they are both fiscally and socially conservative
• 37% said they are more fiscally than socially conservative
• 3% said they are more socially than fiscally conservative
• 2% said they are neither