ConservativeHome's Survey blog

Message to GOP leaders: Conservative voters aren't interested in spending cuts alone; they also want you to get going on the economy

 

Ryan Streeter

Grassroots conservatives who make up our Republican Panel are significantly pessimistic about the economy. In our latest poll a majority believe the economy is in worse now than it was in 2010.

Republicans need to get the budget resolved and focus on an intelligible economic program that people can articulate and understand.

When we asked respondents, “Do you think the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago?” more than a third (34.2%) said “A lot worse.” Nearly two-thirds (65%) think the economy is worse now than it was one year ago.

Do you think the economy is better or worse than it was one year ago?

• Much better:             0.5%
• Somewhat better:      10%
• It’s the same:          24.5%
• Somewhat worse:   30.8%
• A lot worse:             34.2%

In our latest poll, respondents listed getting the economy back on track as the second-most important factor behind fixing the deficit when it comes to what they are looking for in a 2012 GOP presidential candidate.

Respondents in the Republican Panel are largely sympathizers with the Tea Party, and roughly one-third say they are Tea Partiers. Consistently over the past few months, they have prioritized spending cuts, but they have also prioritized the economy and jobs.

Keeping the government open with a budget compromise, followed by several weeks of promoting the Ryan budget and an intelligible economic program, will go a long way with conservative voters. They don’t only care about spending.

On the eve of Paul Ryan’s budget, grassroots conservatives remain anxious about the deficit but think spending cuts are the way forward

This week’s Republican Panel, our survey of grassroots conservatives, sheds some interesting light on how conservative voters are thinking about the deficit and spending cuts as we anticipate the GOP budget next week.

Grassroots conservatives care more about cutting the deficit than anything else right now. When we asked respondents what they were most looking for in the GOP candidate for President in 2012, they answered an individual able to make the tough choices to fix our deficit. 

Fixing the deficit matters more than the ability to cut spending or to get the economy back on track (see graphic far below).

And what do they think is the most important thing Washington needs to do to fix the deficit? Answer: Cut spending across.

Fixing entitlements hardly registered as a solution to the deficit…although it registered a bit higher than the last time we asked the question.

We asked identical questions this week to those we asked in January about what Congress should do to address the deficit. Here is a comparison:

 

Conservatives are less willing to cut from the military, perhaps because of the activity in Libya. More prefer a balanced budget amendment. And, those thinking we should fix entitlements has doubled – from 3% to 6%.

This suggests, perhaps, that the message about entitlements’ relationship to the deficit has been more widely understood. But, in the end, it’s clear that people still think that we can fix the deficit mainly by cutting spending.

Here is what grassroots conservatives think are the most important qualities for the GOP candidate in 2012:

• 40% - Ability to make the tough choices needed to fix the deficit:     
• 27% - Ability to get the economy back on track                              
• 25% - Ability to cut spending in Washington                                     
• 5% - Ability to deal with immigration problems
• 1.5% - Ability to succeed on social issues
• 1% - Ability to bring gas prices down
• 1% - Ability to manage military engagements overseas

This week, ConservativeHome polled 567 conservatives identified by YouGov for our Republican Panel.

Conservative influentials liked Mitch Daniels, grassroots activists preferred Ron Paul, at CPAC last week

We asked our ConservativeHome100, a panel of conservative insiders and influencers, who they thought emerged from CPAC last week as the winner among the 2012 presidential potentials who spoke.

Their response? Hands-down: Mitch Daniels. Two-thirds of them gave Daniels the highest marks.

We also asked our Republican Panel, our poll of self-identified conservative Republicans across the country, who they thought emerged as the winner.

Their response? Ron Paul. Not hands-down, though. Twenty-one percent favored Paul above the others. Mitt Romney came in second with just 11% of the vote.

More interesting among Republican Panel respondents is that 34%, more than selected Paul, checked the box labeled: "I don't know; I didn't really follow CPAC." Since Ron Paul won the straw poll at CPAC, it's also likely that a number of respondents were influenced by the coverage.

Whatever the case, Daniels - as much of his post-CPAC speech coverage (here's George Will yesterday, Peggy Noonan today, and Mike Gerson today) indicates - has won the affection of insiders and influencers. If Daniels decides to run, his next stop will need to be the grassroots, which for now, is dominated more by figures such as Paul, Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich - all who have the widest name recognition.