ConservativeHome's Survey blog

New poll: Conservative voters still like Perry after last week's debate, though Romney has surged

Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter

Among active conservative voters, Rick Perry is still looking strong one week after his widely-panned debate performance. Mitt Romney has seen a significant boost, while Michele Bachmann’s attacks on Perry in the debate didn’t do much to slow her downward slide.

In the latest Daily Caller-ConservativeHome poll, which was fielded September 13-16, 2011, Perry’s numbers on electability held fairly constant from August and kept him atop the field, but it was Romney who arguably had the best month.

Perry’s percentage held steady at 46%, while Romney rose from 19.8% to 34.4% since August. We excluded Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan from the poll this month since the latter has said he’s not running, and Palin has not signaled her intentions clearly enough to warrant keeping her in the mix.

When it comes to the candidate respondents say would be their first choice, the results look like this for the top six: 

Gingrich’s numbers are interesting. Lots of commentators thought he did well on the debate stage. Apparently, a fair number of voters did, too. One thing is clear: leaving Palin and Ryan out of the poll did nothing for Bachmann, who comes off as the biggest loser while her peers all fared much better.

We also asked who voters thought would do the best job on economy.

Romney is clearly the winner here. He has come off well in the past few debates when talking about the economy. Voters noticed. Cain's numbers also suggest his 9-9-9 plan and its rollout have gotten through to voters. Last month, Paul Ryan was 3rd on this question, so it appears that Romney and Cain have scooped up his supporters the most.

The poll was conducted among 671 conservative Republican voters, who are part of the Republican Panel, assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov.

New poll: Conservative voters worry most about the deficit's effect on the economy and think family breakdown is a greater threat to our economy than health care costs

Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter

More than anything else, conservative voters regard deficit spending in Washington as the main source of America’s economic woes, according to our latest poll. Voters are also concerned about the quality of jobs in America and the role family breakdown is playing as an economic issue. There are lessons in the poll for 2012 candidates and members of Congress.

As a whole, Americans’ confidence in the economy is considerably lower than it was last year, according to Gallup. In fact, economic confidence is down to early 2009 levels, back when we were wrangling with the effects of the 2008 meltdown.

But which economic issues specifically do voters worry about?

In our latest poll of grassroots conservatives, we asked:

When you look at the economy, what are the biggest challenges facing American families and workers?

Respondents were asked to choose three challenges from a list. Here are the results:

• 62% - The federal deficit is slowing economic growth
• 45% - Taxes are too high
• 36% - There aren’t enough good jobs
• 29% - Small businesses are having a hard time
• 28% - Politicians can’t keep promises
• 25% - Family breakdown is on the rise
• 24% - The best jobs are going overseas
• 22% - Health care costs are too high
• 19% - Spending on Medicare and Social Security is hurting the economy
• 15% - Home values have plummeted
• 13% - Families have too much personal debt
•   8% - College costs are too high

Implications:

Despite voters’ dissatisfaction with Republicans’ jobs agenda, candidates still benefit by focusing on the deficit. Grassroots conservatives have consistently said they think Republicans in Washington are not doing enough on jobs. And yet voters overwhelmingly see the deficit as the biggest threat to the economy. This issue undoubtedly grew more pronounced during the debt ceiling debates, but it’s likely to be an enduring theme in voters’ minds up through next year’s election.

Tax reform will remain a winning issue. Voters see taxes as too high, period. Bringing rates down significantly, as the GOP budget and the deficit commission have suggested, will appeal to voters, even with lots of loophole closing.

Jobs and small business still remain vital issues. Even though voters are more concerned about the deficit these days, they are also clearly worried that the quality of jobs and the conditions for small businesses are bad.

Don’t forget to talk about families. Note that more respondents listed family breakdown than health care costs. For some time, social scientists have drawn a clear connection between family breakdown (divorce, out-of-wedlock childbearing, absent fathers) and dim economic prospects for those in broken homes, but mainstream voters also seem to be making the same connection.

Voters still separate entitlements from the larger deficit issue. The “deficit” as a general issue has people worried, but the role of Social Security and Medicare as drivers of the deficit is less than it should be. So long as this is the case, candidates and elected leaders in Washington will be tempted to avoid talking about them. However, we’ll never get ahead of our need to reform entitlements if candidates don’t have the courage to talk about them and help bring voters along.

These are the views of middle class conservative voters. We asked respondents whether they consider themselves middle class. More than 87% responded affirmatively. Only 9% said no. Regardless of whether respondents technically fall within income ranges generally accepted as middle class, the fact that they so strongly self-identify as such is a message to candidates that upward mobility and growing a strong middle class will resonate.

Oh, and all of you in Washington: Voters still don't like you. In other polls Members of Congress consistently have the lowest approval ratings in the nation. Our poll is no different. Note that nearly as many respondents think politicians' breaking promises is as big a problem for the economy as the poor conditions for small businesses.

The poll was conducted August 18-21, 2011 among 734 members of the Republican Panel, a survey of active conservative Republican voters, assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov.

Rick Perry rocks, and Paul Ryan will be missed: Check out the latest Daily Caller-ConservativeHome poll results

Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter

Since our poll last month, Rick Perry's entrance into the race has seriously altered events for both Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann in the latest Daily Caller-ConservativeHome poll.

And Paul Ryan, who said on Monday that he’s not running, has clearly gotten into voters’ heads when it comes to spending and the economy. Just as he removed himself from contention, he was clearly making positive gains among conservative voters (we fielded the poll before Ryan's announcement that he wasn't running).

We should note at the outset that we oversample active Republicans in our polls. That is, nearly 70% of respondents in our poll give either time or money to candidates. So, unlike “likely voter” polls, ours measures more committed Republicans.

First, when asked who voters think is the most electable, here are how the top five fared:

• Rick Perry: 45.6%
• Mitt Romney: 19.8%
• Michele Bachmann: 9.5%
• Paul Ryan: 6.2.%
• Ron Paul: 5.2%

Second, when asked who voters plan to vote for, the top five look like this:

• Rick Perry: 29.3%
• Michele Bachmann: 17%
• Mitt Romney: 11.1%
• Herman Cain: 8.3%
• Tie: Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Paul Ryan: 7.6%

Ryan really kicks into gear when we ask voters about spending and the economy.

When asked, “Which of the following candidates do you think would do the best job on keeping Washington spending under control?” here’s how the top five look:

• Rick Perry: 20.3%
• Paul Ryan: 17.4%
• Michele Bachmann: 16.8%
• Ron Paul: 13.5%
• Herman Cain: 8.7%
• (Mitt Romney, in case you’re wondering, is at 7.6%)

When asked, “Which of the following candidates would do the best job on the economy if elected President in 2012?” here’s how the top five look:

• Rick Perry: 27.1%
• Mitt Romney: 14.1%
• Paul Ryan: 12.4%
• Herman Cain: 10.8%
• Michele Bachmann: 10.5%

When you combine the results for spending and the economy, Paul Ryan finishes in a strong second place behind Rick Perry.

These are fascinating results. Voters clearly think the Perrys and Romneys of the world are far more electable than Paul Ryan, but when it comes to who they think would execute two of the three most important duties of the office of the President (promoting a strong economy and controlling spending, the third being foreign policy), Paul Ryan is second only to Perry.

The poll was conducted August 18-21 with 726 members of the Republican Panel, assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov.

The strengths and weaknesses of Tim Pawlenty

Tim Montgomerie
Follow Tim on Twitter.

In the most recent ConHomeUSA survey of committed Republicans we asked people to identify the strengths and weaknesses of Tim Pawlenty. Most of the 746 votes that were cast were registered before this week's debate. Listed below are the biggest strengths and the biggest weaknesses, as seen by the people that the former Governor of Minnesota needs to win over...

BIGGEST STRENGTHS

• 82% liked that... "As a Governor he refused to raise taxes"
• 81% liked... "His economic plan of lower taxes and freeze spending"
• 75% liked... "His promise to phase out ethanol subsidies"
• 73% warmed to him because... "He comes from a humble background; his father was a truck driver and he lost his mother at 16"
• 69% liked that... "He and his wife are evangelical Christians and are both socially conservative"
• "His 'time-to-tell-the-truth' campaign message" ...won the support of 68%
• 67% agreed that... "As a two-term Governor of the Democrat-leaning Minnesota he is a proven winner".

BIGGEST WEAKNESSES

• 60% didn't like that... "At the end of his time as Governor, Minnesota was $5 billion in debt"
• 57% noted... "He wobbled on cap and trade; first supporting and then rejecting action to tackle climate change"
• 52% didn't like the suggestion that... "He is a moderate"
• 36% cooled towards him because... "He lacks charisma"
• 33% objected to the fact... "He has no healthcare plan".

ConHomeUSA has previously carried out a strengths/ weaknesses rating for Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. We'll rate Michele Bachmann next week.

Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll: Voters see Romney as the most electable by a long shot, but he’s not their favorite as long as Christie stands in the wings

Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter

This week’s Daily Caller – ConservativeHome presidential poll confirmed what just about every poll has shown lately: Mitt Romney has jumped out ahead of the others. But it also shows that Romney isn't exactly the heartfelt favorite. The poll, conducted on the eve of last night’s New Hampshire debate, shows that when Chris Christie is added to the mix as a potential candidate, support for Romney drops.

When asked who they find to be most electable, respondents overwhelmingly selected Romney. The top results look like this:

30% - Mitt Romney
15% - Chris Christie 
12% - Herman Cain
10% - Sarah Palin
  8% - Michele Bachmann
  8% - Tim Pawlenty

Of the people on the list, who do you think is most electable in 2012?

We continue to leave Chris Christie on our list as an important gauge on voter sentiment, since Christie has continued to poll well despite his claims that he is not running. Romney’s electability numbers would likely be higher were Christie left off.

Bachmann, who came across as poised and well-informed in the NH debate, will likely see a bounce in coming weeks, especially since she has now formally announced. As the numbers show, Cain came into the debate with high marks in voters’ minds. Those may dip after last night’s performance.

What becomes especially interesting is to turn from the question about electability to voters’ first choice for President. Leaving Christie on the list has a profound effect on Romney. Here is how respondents in our poll choose their first pick:

16% - Herman Cain
14% - Chris Christie
14% - Sarah Palin
13% - Mitt Romney
  9% - Michele Bachmann

Of the people in the following list, who would be your top pick for President in 2012 (assuming he/she is running)?

We have also included Paul Ryan on the list, despite his denials of interest in running, and he turns in a respectable 7%.  Without Christie and Ryan on the list, Romney’s numbers would likely jump. What is also clear is that Newt Gingrich’s disastrous start to his campaign has knocked him down from previous strong showings. And Tim Pawlenty continues to poll far below the level one might expect given his strong rollout, outbid by Rick Perry, whom we included given the recent interest in him.

We also asked respondents: Of the following people who have said they are NOT running for President in 2012, who do most wish WAS running?

While nearly 48% said they didn’t care that any of the following had dropped out, the rest responded this way:

25% - Mike Huckabee
12% - Mitch Daniels
  7% - Mike Pence
  6% - Haley Barbour
  3% - John Thune

The poll included 751 members of the Republican Panel, assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, and was conducted between June 9-12, 2011.

New poll: Grassroots voters think Republicans are succeeding on Medicare, failing on jobs

Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter

Here’s an interesting message the grassroots are sending through our latest Republican Panel poll to Republicans in Washington: “Yes, we support your Medicare plan, now go focus on jobs!”

In a poll of 736 conservative Republicans between June 8-11, 2011, we asked the following 2 questions:

1. Republicans in the House have proposed to change Medicare into a program that gives seniors a fixed amount of money each year so they can purchase insurance from a list of providers. These changes would apply to people 55 and under. Do you support the plan?
2. Do you think Republicans in Congress are doing enough to promote a jobs agenda?

The results of our poll should do two things:

1. Give the Republicans confidence that, despite the NY special election and the Democrats’ Mediscare tactics, GOP voters are standing with the GOP plan.
2. Send a strong signal to Republicans in Washington that, despite their best efforts, their jobs message is not getting through.

On the Medicare question:

• 70% support the GOP plan
• 11% do not
• 19% are unsure

Republicans in the House have proposed to change Medicare into a program that gives seniors a fixed amount of money each year so they can purchase insurance from a list of providers. These changes would apply to people 55 and under. Do you support the plan?

 

On the jobs question:

• 66% do NOT believe congressional Republicans are doing enough on jobs
• 16% believe they are
• 18% are unsure

Do you think Republicans in Congress are doing enough to promote a jobs agenda?

The 736 respondents in the poll are members of the Republican Panel, which has been assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov. The panel consists of self-identified conservative Republicans across the country, 70% of whom give either time or money to candidates.

Grassroots conservatives have backbone: they still support the war on terror and increasingly want to take on entitlements

Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter

On the biggest foreign policy and domestic policy questions of the day, grassroots conservatives seem to be feeling their oats.

Think the grassroots want out of Afghanistan now that bin Laden is dead? Think again. Think conservatives are still unclear about whether entitlements or spending are a graver threat to our fiscal well-being? Think again.

In our latest poll of of 878 conservative Republicans, taken from our Republican Panel which was assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, a plurality of conservatives want to stay and finish the job in Afghanistan "no matter how long it takes." And, among those who support Congress's raising the debt ceiling on the condition that spending reductions are included, a plurality support including entitlement reform in the requirements.

Here are the details:

Now that Osama bin Laden is dead, what are your views on the military operations in Afghanistan?

46% - I think we should stay and finish the job, no matter how long it takes

27% - I think we should finish the job, but set a time limit for our troop withdrawal

27% - I think we should pull our troops out immediately

While one might argue that the middle 27% represents some level of war fatigue, it's clear that grassroots conservatives strongly feel the U.S. should finish what it started out to do in Afghanistan.

With regard to the debt ceiling, a significant number of conservatives don't want to raise the limit on debt. No surprise there. But for respondents who agree with the GOP leadership's plan to demand cuts in exchange for raising the ceiling, a plurality - fully one-third of respondents - want to leave the military OUT of the cuts, but keep entitlements IN.

This is significant, since earlier this year, conservatives overwhelmingly preferred focusing on discretionary spending over entitlement spending. They began to warm to entitlement cuts around about March.

Republicans have demanded that any increase to the federal debt ceiling be coupled with spending cuts. Which best reflects your view?

44% - I don't think we should raise the debt ceiling

33% - We should cut discretionary domestic programs and entitlement spending, but not military spending, as conditions for raising the debt ceiling

18% - We should cut military spending, discretionary domestic programs, and entitlement (Medicare, Social Security) spending as conditions for raising the debt ceiling

5% - We should only cut discretionary domestic program spending as a condition for raising the debt ceiling

The fact that grassroots conservatives show a greater interest in cutting BOTH entitlements AND discretionary spending, rather than discretionary spending alone, suggests a growing awareness of the fiscal threat entitlements pose.

Raising Cain: The pizza man bounces high after the first debate, Trump began tanking before he fired himself – these and more results from today’s Daily Caller – ConservativeHome 2012 Tracking Poll

Ryan Streeter
Follow Ryan on Twitter

The first GOP debate, at which Tim Pawlenty arrived as the only serious contender, was a national springboard for Herman Cain. He was selected by the Fox News post-debate focus group as the winner, and that surely helped him in our poll.

He bounced out of nowhere to tie Chris Christie as respondents’ top pick in 2012. Since Christie has indicated he’s not running, that gives Cain the top spot among those who are (as with past polls, we have left Christie in for comparison and because he has not issued an official statement saying he won’t run).

The results below from our most recent Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll come from a sample of 871 conservative Republicans who were polled from May12-14. For this reason, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump remain in the results, since they made their announcements about not running after we fielded the poll.

Their inclusion – and especially Trump’s inclusion – is interesting. The Donald was clearly dropping fast after he hit his popularity peak. Our previous survey was fielded at the height of his media moment. Those who thought him most electable dropped from 15% to 6% of respondents in the past two weeks.

Gingrich saw a boost in his numbers. This is likely owing to the fact that he announced his candidacy just as we fielded the poll. Voters' support of Romney as a top pick for President has dropped slightly since our early April poll, and his electability numbers have dropped even more.

Finally, our poll suggests that Cain’s rise pulled from Huckabee and Bachmann slightly. It’s difficult to say if his rise is related to Trump’s decline, or if Trump’s decline has more to do with a fading new car smell.

Who do you think is most electable in 2012?

Who would be your first pick for President in 2012?

Who would be your second pick for President in 2012?

The 871 respondents in this poll were taken from the Republican Panel, assembled by YouGov for ConservativeHome.

Chris Christie and Paul Ryan for President! The biweekly Daily Caller-ConservativeHome 2012 presidential tracking poll shows a lot of support for those who probably won't be running in 2012

Ryan Streeter

The biweekly Daily Caller-ConservativeHome 2012 GOP Presidential tracking poll shows some remarkable enthusiasm for a couple of people who most probably will not be running – namely, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan. We included them to add a comparative perspective and because they haven’t officially said they won’t run.

To us, the strong showing by Christie and Ryan suggests widespread dissatisfaction with the current field among conservatives. Respondents are attracted to non-sound-bite, straight-talking candidates who seem tough enough to deal with today’s big issues. The top 8 candidates for each of the 5 questions we asked this week are listed below.

• Christie and Trump continue to register high numbers across the board.

• Ryan gets noticeably high marks for someone who only appeared on the national, outside-the-beltway scene fairly recently. He ties Huckabee on the question of whom respondents plan to vote for, and on questions about the economy and spending in Washington, he fares especially well as a newcomer. This is the first time we have included him in the tracking survey.

• Michele Bachmann’s recent less-than-subtle signals about 2012 have also benefitted her. She now tops Sarah Palin in electability and trails her narrowly as a favorite candidate.

• Our poll is unique because we ask about (1) who people think is most electable, (2) whom they plan to vote for (because the two aren’t always aligned, i.e., a respondent may think Romney is most electable but plans to vote for Palin), and (3) who their second choice is (the second-choice question is new). Adding (3) worked well for Bachmann: 15% selected her as their second choice.

In the Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll, we have chosen to include individuals who, despite saying they are not running, have not officially declared as much. This, to us, helps us gauge public sentiment about all potential candidates, even if some are unlikely candidates. Those who have officially said they aren’t running (Mike Pence, John Thune) are no longer on the list. Barbour issued his statement after we had fielded the current poll, so we'll remove him next time.

Here are the top eight for each question (nine if there was a tie for 8th place). Since we round up or down, those tied are listed in the order they came in by tenths of a percent rather than alphabetically.

Who do you think is most electable in 2012?

• 19% - Chris Christie
• 18% - Mitt Romney 
• 15% - Donald Trump
•   9% - Mike Huckabee
•   6% - Michele Bachmann
•   5% - Paul Ryan
•   5% - Newt Gingrich
•   4% - Sarah Palin
•   4% - Tim Pawlenty

Who would be your top pick for President in 2012?

• 16% - Chris Christie
• 12% - Donald Trump
•   9% - Mitt Romney
•   9% - Sarah Palin
•   9% - Newt Gingrich
•   8% - Michele Bachmann
•   7% - Paul Ryan
•   7% - Mike Huckabee

Who would be your second choice for President in 2012?

• 15% - Michele Bachmann
• 12% - Chris Christie
• 10% - Mike Huckabee
•   9% - Mitt Romney
•   8% - Sarah Palin
•   7% - Donald Trump
•   7% - Newt Gingrich
•   6% - Paul Ryan
•   6% - Herman Cain

 Who would you trust most as President to get the economy growing again?

• 26% - Donald Trump
• 14% - Mitt Romney
• 12.5% - Chris Christie
• 10% - Paul Ryan
•   7% - Newt Gingrich
•   6% - Sarah Palin
•   5% - Herman Cain
•   5% - Ron Paul
•   5% - Michele Bachmann

 Who would you trust most as President to get Washington spending under control?

• 19% - Chris Christie
• 14.5% - Donald Trump
• 13.5% - Paul Ryan
• 11% - Michele Bachmann
•   9% - Ron Paul
•   7% - Newt Gingrich
•   7% - Sarah Palin
•   5% - Mitt Romney

Check out the first and second Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking polls, too.

This week’s tracking poll was conducted with 785 members of the Republican Panel, assembled by YouGov for ConservativeHome.

Grassroots conservatives are more excited about the Ryan budget than when it was released, and they are ready to give up their mortgage interest deduction for lower tax rates

Ryan Streeter

Good news for reformers: grassroots conservatives are ready to play hardball on tax reform.

This week, we asked our Republican Panel, a group of self-identified conservative Republicans, about their views on tax reform. Specifically, we asked if they would be willing to give up their deductions and exemptions (including the mortgage interest deduction) in the tax code for lower rates. This kind of tax reform is at the heart of the Ryan budget, as well as other conservative approaches to deficit reduction.

Here is how they responded:

Many are talking today about tax reform. Do you support lowering tax rates but eliminating most deductions and exemptions in the tax code, including the mortgage interest deduction?

• 50% - yes
• 34% - no
• 17% - I don't know

Fifty percent support for fundamental tax reform among conservatives is a good start.

Next, we gauged enthusiasm for the Ryan budget. Currently, GOP members are taking a lot of heat back home for the budget’s proposed reforms to Medicare. Those who voted for the budget (all but four House Republicans) should take heart from our poll: enthusiasm for the budget is high. A plurality of respondents are more excited now about the budget than when it was released.

Are you more or less excited about Paul Ryan’s budget since he released it?

• 41% - more excited
• 31% - just as excited now as I was then
• 10% - I wasn't excited then and am not excited now
• 10% - I don't know
•  7% - less excited

The Republican Panel is comprised of conservatives who place a premium on spending cuts. They have not, to date, been especially enthusiastic about entitlement reform as a solution to the deficit, and yet they are widely supportive of the Ryan budget – which contains significant Medicare reforms.

The appetite for change among Republicans is significant and should provide encouragement for the Ryan-esque reformers in the GOP.

The current poll was conducted with 775 members of the Republican Panel, assembled by YouGov, between April 21-25, 2011.