ConservativeHome's Survey blog

Conservative influencers and activists agree: Republicans should tackle entitlements this year rather than waiting until 2012

Conservative insiders and grassroots activists, whom we poll separately, may have different views on who emerged from CPAC as the strongest 2012 contender, but the are agreed on this: they both think Republicans should tackle entitlements this year in their budget rather than waiting until 2012 in hopes of a Republican occupying the White House.

• 62% of influencers said they thought Republicans should propose entitlement reform measures in their budget this spring, while 38% said they thought it better to hold off for now
• 65% of grassroots conservatives* said they thought Congress should introduce entitlement reforms this year, while 24% said they thought lawmakers should wait until 2012; and 5% said they thought Congress shouldn't touch entitlements at all.

These numbers bode well for the GOP leadership, who have been migrating toward an affirmative answer when asked whether they'll include entitlement reform in their budget this year. Of course, support for entitlement reform as a spending issue is different than support for entitlement reform perceived as a reduction in my benefits.

* Since our previous polling has shown that conservatives care about spending cuts over entitlement reform by a long shot, the question in the poll was worded this way: "Republicans are currently debating whether they should try to introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security this year in order to slow the growth of costs in those programs. Do you think they should introduce the reforms this year?" However, we have also learned that when presented with specific reforms such as raising the retirement age or means-testing benefits, conservatives grow less supportive of entitlement reform.

Conservative influentials liked Mitch Daniels, grassroots activists preferred Ron Paul, at CPAC last week

We asked our ConservativeHome100, a panel of conservative insiders and influencers, who they thought emerged from CPAC last week as the winner among the 2012 presidential potentials who spoke.

Their response? Hands-down: Mitch Daniels. Two-thirds of them gave Daniels the highest marks.

We also asked our Republican Panel, our poll of self-identified conservative Republicans across the country, who they thought emerged as the winner.

Their response? Ron Paul. Not hands-down, though. Twenty-one percent favored Paul above the others. Mitt Romney came in second with just 11% of the vote.

More interesting among Republican Panel respondents is that 34%, more than selected Paul, checked the box labeled: "I don't know; I didn't really follow CPAC." Since Ron Paul won the straw poll at CPAC, it's also likely that a number of respondents were influenced by the coverage.

Whatever the case, Daniels - as much of his post-CPAC speech coverage (here's George Will yesterday, Peggy Noonan today, and Mike Gerson today) indicates - has won the affection of insiders and influencers. If Daniels decides to run, his next stop will need to be the grassroots, which for now, is dominated more by figures such as Paul, Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich - all who have the widest name recognition. 

Conservative insiders say spending cuts should be the top priority after next week's health care vote

This week’s ConservativeHome100 poll, which surveys a group of America’s most influential conservatives, asked the panel to name the two most important issues that the House majority should focus on after next week's vote on the health care law.

The question was open-ended, meaning panelists were asked to fill in their responses in their own words rather than selecting from a list.

Although the responses were varied, they were grouped largely in four main areas – the first of which, by far, was to focus on spending cuts of various kinds. Nearly three-quarters of respondents listed spending cuts as one of their two responses, followed by pro-growth tax and regulatory policy, entitlement reform, and dismantling Obamacare.

• Cut federal spending:                                                        74%
• Growth & jobs through tax and regulatory reforms:               40%
• Begin entitlement reform:                                                   19%
• Begin dismantling Obamacare:                                           14%

Because the question in the poll was open-ended, panelists made these points in their own words. However, there was a lot of consistency in how they replied. It is clear that large-scale spending reductions (not just trimming around the margins) and a pro-growth tax and regulatory environment are on people's minds. 

The poll includes notables such as Arthur Brooks, David Frum, John Podhoretz, John O'Sullivan, Reihan Salam, and Karl Rove. Some members have asked to remain anonymous.

The most influential conservatives say pass the tax deal as it stands, fund the government, and go home

This week’s ConservativeHome100 poll, which surveys a group of America’s most influential conservatives, asked their views on policy priorities facing Congress in the lame duck.

The majority strongly believes that Congress should pass the tax cut deal as agreed to, fund the government, and go home.  Other issues that were live last week – START, the Dream Act, and DADT – all rank low.

• 77% believe in passing the tax cut deal as it stands, compared to the 33% prefer that the GOP try to kill the estate tax and fund the unemployment insurance with spending reductions.
• Only 15% believe Congress should have approved START, 13% the Dream Act, and 13% Don’t-Ask-Don’t-Tell.

The poll includes notables such as Arthur Brooks, David Frum, John Podhoretz, John O'Sullivan, Reihan Salam, and Karl Rove. Some members have asked to remain anonymous.

Cutting corporate tax rates, reforming entitlements, and simplifying the tax code top the ConservativeHome100 panel's favorite deficit commission recommendations

The ConservativeHome100 is our poll of some of America's most influential conservatives.  

The poll includes notables such as Arthur Brooks, David Frum, John Podhoretz, John O'Sullivan, Reihan Salam, and Karl Rove. Some members have asked to remain anonymous.

This week, we are keeping the deficit commission's proposals alive even though the commission didn't get the 14 votes it needed under Obama's executive order. As Keith Hennessey points out, the commission was a success in virtue of the 11 votes it did receive. No one will agree to adopt every item in the proposal, but individual recommendations hold a lot of promise for reforms we need to get our deficit under control.

So we asked ConservativeHome100 panel members to select their top 3 choices for adopting specific panel recommendations. Here are the results:

• 58% - Cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 28%
• 47% - Reform Medicare but with some different policy options than the commission recommends
• 47% - Reform Social Security but with some different policy options than the commission recommends
• 45% - Reduce individual tax rates to 3 brackets by eliminating most exemptions and deductions in the tax code
• 42% - Cut discretionary spending as the panel recommends but leave defense untouched
• 32% - Freeze federal pay, including Congress's salaries, for 3 years
• 29% - Cut discretionary spending as the panel recommends including cuts to defense
• 25% - Reform Social Security as the commission recommends
• 18% - Eliminate all congressional earmarks
• 13% - Reduce individual tax rates to 3 brackets but leave exemptions and deductions in the tax code
• 13% - Reform Medicare as the commission recommends
• 11% - Increase the gas tax by 15 cents per gallon

America's most influential conservatives support higher retirement ages, private accounts much more than spending constraints in Social Security reform

The ConservativeHome100 is our poll of some of America's most influential conservatives. 

The poll includes notables such as Arthur Brooks, David Frum, John Podhoretz, John O'Sullivan, Reihan Salam, and Karl Rove. Some members have asked to remain anonymous.

Last week's poll focused on the Bush tax cuts, which continues to be relevant this week given the debate in Washington about whether and how to extend them. If you missed it, the results are here.

This week, in light of the ongoing debate about the Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction proposals, we asked the ConservativeHome100 panel about reforming Social Security.

When asked about making Social Security solvent in the long-term, respondents were asked which policy solutions they support:

• 90% support raising the retirement age to 70 for people 40 years old and younger
• 88% support allowing people under 40 years of age to invest in voluntary private accounts
• 53% support cutting benefits
• 12% support reasonable tax increases

When asked whether bipartisan progress on Social Security is possible in the 112th Congress:

• 43% said yes
• 41% said no
• 16% said they were unsure

The ConservativeHome100 panel and the Republican Panel, our poll of grassroots conservatives, support private accounts at similar rates. But the former is more supportive or raising the retirement age than the latter. 

Well-informed, influential conservatives clearly see significant reforms such as private accounts and raised retirement ages as more consequential than spending constraint.

Perhaps the radical nature of these reforms explains why less than half of respondents believe bi-partisan reform is possible.The most needed changes to Social Security are undoubtedly unpopular - and therefore politically difficult.

America's leading conservatives tell ConHomeUSA that they expect Obama to agree two year extension of Bush's tax cuts

Yesterday we launched The Republican Panel. The Panel's more-than-two-thousand-members gave their views on the 2012 candidates and Republican priorities. Click here if you missed it.

As well as the weekly Panel we are also polling one hundred 'conservative influentials;' commentators, bloggers, think tank chiefs and aides to elected officials who keep a close, professional eye on politics.

Some members have asked to remain anonymous but what we are calling the ConservativeHome100 includes notables such as Arthur Brooks of AEI, David Frum, John Podhoretz, John O'Sullivan, Reihan Salam, and Karl Rove.

The results of the first 100 survey are posted below.

In question one we asked: "When it comes to extending the Bush tax cuts, which policy do you personally believe is best for the country?"

• An overwhelming 84% said that extending all the cuts "long-term" was best for America.
• 15% said the best thing was for the cuts to be extended for two years.
• 2% said allowing taxes to rise on those earning over $250,000 was the right way forward.

Our second question focused not on what the influentials wanted to happen but on what they expected to happen:

• 87% expected the Obama administration and Democrats to agree to a two year extension of the Bush tax cuts.
• 8% expected them to expire because of a stalemate.
• 6% expected Republicans strike a deal with the Democrats that raises taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Although such a large majority of conservatives expect this compromise, many liberal Democrats are still fighting any extension of tax relief for wealthier Americans. Politico has a report on Obama's disgruntled Left.

The ConservativeHome100

ConservativeHome is enlisting 100 of the most influential think tankers, bloggers, activists, andother opinion-shapers on the right side of America in a weekly survey on big issues. 

The survey, ConservativeHome100, will be a weekly gauge of what America's conservative influencers think about issues you care about most.

Check back here weekly for updates and survey results.