ConservativeHome's Survey blog

What GOP activists believe about the Bush tax cuts, Social Security, military spending and more

Ryan Streeter

We have heard a lot this week about how America is divided on how Congress should extend the Bush tax cuts.  But what do America's conservative Republicans think about this and other big issues?

They are not nearly as divided.

Here's a sampling from the Republican Panel, ConservativeHome's weekly poll of more than 2,000 conservatives (you can join the ConservativeHome readers' version of the Republican Panel by taking our introductory survey here):

Extending the Bush tax cuts:

• 86% think the tax cuts should be extended for all income brackets
• 10% think the tax cuts should be extended for all but those earning more than $1million per year
• 4% think the tax cuts should be extended for all but those earning more than $250,000 per year

Reforming Social Security:

• 79% think that people under the age of 40 should be allowed to invest part of their Social Security taxes into private accounts instead of the traditional program 
• 55% favor raising the retirement age to 70 for those under 40, while 29% say the retirement age should not be raised

Funding the military during tough economic times:

• 36% say don’t touch the defense budget
• 51% say only touch the defense budget as a last resort
• 10% say to cut defense by the same percentage as the rest of the government
• 3% say that defense should be cut more than everything else

Defining themselves fiscally and socially:

• 58% say they are both fiscally and socially conservative
• 37% say they are fiscal more than social conservatives
• 3% say they are social more than fiscal conservatives
• 2% say they are neither

Thinking about the future of the RNC:

• 39% say Michael Steele should be replaced as RNC leader
• 25% say they have no opinion on whether he should be replaced
• 20% say he needs more time
• 16% say he has done a good job and should stay

First Weekly Republican Poll shows intense desire to repeal Obamacare, and a love of Sarah and Newt (but Mitt as more electable)

This week’s inaugural ConservativeHome Republican Panel* shows that Republican activists across the nation want Obamacare repealed, lower taxes, more jobs…and Sarah Palin more than any other 2012 presidential contender.

The poll, which surveyed 2,236 strong conservative identifiers between November 10 and 16, shows a deep dissatisfaction with how Republicans in Washington have grown used to spending money and letting government grow. 69% of those surveyed have given time or money to candidates in the past four years.

When it comes to the issue on which respondents would most like to see Republicans in Washington show leadership, repealing Obamacare tops the list. The top four responses are:

• 88% - Repeal Obamacare           
• 53% - Lower taxes                     
• 47% - Create job
• 46% - Reform immigration          

When we look specifically at what voters hope Republicans will do to help their economic prospects, lowering taxes is atop the list.  The top four responses are:

• 66% - Lower tax rates
• 54% - Rapid job creation
• 50% - Make it more appealing to start a business     
• 48% - Keep jobs from going overseas                  

Respondents were also asked about the top 3 ways in which Republicans had let voters down. Here’s how they responded:

• 79% - Republicans have gotten too used to spending taxpayers money
• 69% - Republicans have stopped caring about the size of government
• 41% - Republicans were paying too much attention to special interests rather than “my concerns.”
• 36% - Republicans have grown too comfortable with power
• 27% - Republicans have stopped being the party of ideas
• 25% - Republicans have stopped talking about values and cultural issues
• 11% - Republicans have not worked hard enough to make the GOP more diverse
•   8% - Republicans have not done enough for lower income families and individuals

And what about 2012? Sarah Palin is the panel’s favorite candidate, but Mitt Romney is viewed as the most electable.

Which 2012 presidential contender is your favorite:

• 23% - Sarah Palin
• 21% - Newt Gingrich
• 18% - Mitt Romney
• 13% - Mike Huckabee
•   7% - Jeb Bush
•   7% - Tim Pawlenty
•   5% - Mike Pence
•   4% - John Thune
•   3% - Mitch Daniels

Which 2012 presidential contender is the most likely to win the nomination:

• 35% - Mitt Romney
• 17% - Sarah Palin
• 15% - Newt Gingrich
• 12% - Mike Huckabee
•   9% - Tim Pawlenty
•   4% - Jeb Bush
•   3% - John Thune
•   2% - Mitch Daniels

When asked which of the following 5 “new faces” in the GOP over the past few years gave them the most hope for the future, respondents said:

• 40% - Chris Christie
• 34% - Marco Rubio
• 12% - Rand Paul
• 12% - Bobby Jindal
•   2% - Susana Martinez

The newly elected class of 2010 in Washington can take heart from this:

When asked how confident they were that GOP gains on November 2 would put America back on track, 54% said they were “somewhat confident” and 20% said “very confident.”  19% hedged their bets and said they are "unsure."

Given the Constitution, the House is quite limited in what it can do to push an agenda while Obama is in the White House, as John Boehner and other top Republicans have been trying to communicate to the public. The message hasn't quite gotten through to the activists yet.

We will be including ConservativeHome readers in a second Republican Panel poll. If you would like to join and take part in a short weekly survey on important issues for the GOP, please click here. 

*The ConservativeHome Republican Panel

This sample is a panel of people identifying strongly as conservatives, 69% of whom have contributed to or volunteered for a Republican candidate in the past 4 years.  The panel was recruited specifically for ConservativeHome by the online research agency YouGov, selected from its own panel. The criteria for inclusion were: (a) having previously told YouGov they were "conservative" or "very conservative" or a Republican party identifier (b) identifying in a subsequent survey as having contributed or volunteered for at least one Republican candidate in the past four years; (c) willingness to join a continuing survey panel for ConservativeHome.com. The fieldwork was conducted 10-16 November 2010.

YouGov, based in Palo Alto, is a non-partisan online polling organization, which has compiled an impressive record for accuracy in predicting state and national election outcomes. In 2010, its election forecast was more accurate than any other polling organization, forecasting a 7% Republican advantage in the national Congressional vote and a 63 seat gain for Republicans in the House of Representatives. YouGov has polled in hundreds of statewide races, consistently ranking at the top of all polling organizations for predictive accuracy.