ConservativeHome's Survey blog

Republicans in Washington are doing a lousy job defending their plans for Medicare and job creation

Ryan Streeter
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In our latest survey we asked 706 conservative Republican voters* to rate Republicans in Congress on a scale of 1 to 10 on three questions: how they’re doing on Medicare, jobs, and the debt ceiling.

Overall, the results don’t look good for congressional Republicans. Respondents don’t think their representatives are doing a very good job explaining the GOP’s Medicare and jobs plans. On the Medicare front, the result is especially interesting because elsewhere in our survey, when asked if they support the GOP’s Medicare plan, more than 70% said yes.

So the takeaway from this is that grassroots conservatives are bullish on the reforms but think Republicans are doing a lousy job defending them.

On the three questions at issue, here is how respondents replied (“badly” signifies a response between 1 and 5, “well” signifies a response between 6 and 10):

How Republicans have done explaining their Medicare reform plan:

• 69.6% badly
• 30.4% well

How Republicans have done explaining their plan to create jobs:

• 70.5% badly
• 29.5% well

How Republicans are doing holding Democrats’ feet to the fire on the debt ceiling:

• 51.3% badly
• 48.7% well

Perhaps most interesting is what we might call the “intensity score” for congressional Republicans. If we average the “very badly” (ranks of 1 and 2) and “very well” (ranks of 9 and 10) scores for all three questions, the results are:

• 13% very badly
• 4% very well

This means that, on average, conservative voters are more intensely dissatisfied than satisfied with the job Republicans in Washington are doing on these three big issues.

* Respondents are a part of the Republican Panel, which consists of conservative Republican voters who are on average likely to donate time or money to Republican candidates. The Republican Panel has been assembled by YouGov for ConservativeHome.

The strengths and weaknesses of Tim Pawlenty

Tim Montgomerie
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In the most recent ConHomeUSA survey of committed Republicans we asked people to identify the strengths and weaknesses of Tim Pawlenty. Most of the 746 votes that were cast were registered before this week's debate. Listed below are the biggest strengths and the biggest weaknesses, as seen by the people that the former Governor of Minnesota needs to win over...

BIGGEST STRENGTHS

• 82% liked that... "As a Governor he refused to raise taxes"
• 81% liked... "His economic plan of lower taxes and freeze spending"
• 75% liked... "His promise to phase out ethanol subsidies"
• 73% warmed to him because... "He comes from a humble background; his father was a truck driver and he lost his mother at 16"
• 69% liked that... "He and his wife are evangelical Christians and are both socially conservative"
• "His 'time-to-tell-the-truth' campaign message" ...won the support of 68%
• 67% agreed that... "As a two-term Governor of the Democrat-leaning Minnesota he is a proven winner".

BIGGEST WEAKNESSES

• 60% didn't like that... "At the end of his time as Governor, Minnesota was $5 billion in debt"
• 57% noted... "He wobbled on cap and trade; first supporting and then rejecting action to tackle climate change"
• 52% didn't like the suggestion that... "He is a moderate"
• 36% cooled towards him because... "He lacks charisma"
• 33% objected to the fact... "He has no healthcare plan".

ConHomeUSA has previously carried out a strengths/ weaknesses rating for Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. We'll rate Michele Bachmann next week.

Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll: Voters see Romney as the most electable by a long shot, but he’s not their favorite as long as Christie stands in the wings

Ryan Streeter
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This week’s Daily Caller – ConservativeHome presidential poll confirmed what just about every poll has shown lately: Mitt Romney has jumped out ahead of the others. But it also shows that Romney isn't exactly the heartfelt favorite. The poll, conducted on the eve of last night’s New Hampshire debate, shows that when Chris Christie is added to the mix as a potential candidate, support for Romney drops.

When asked who they find to be most electable, respondents overwhelmingly selected Romney. The top results look like this:

30% - Mitt Romney
15% - Chris Christie 
12% - Herman Cain
10% - Sarah Palin
  8% - Michele Bachmann
  8% - Tim Pawlenty

Of the people on the list, who do you think is most electable in 2012?

We continue to leave Chris Christie on our list as an important gauge on voter sentiment, since Christie has continued to poll well despite his claims that he is not running. Romney’s electability numbers would likely be higher were Christie left off.

Bachmann, who came across as poised and well-informed in the NH debate, will likely see a bounce in coming weeks, especially since she has now formally announced. As the numbers show, Cain came into the debate with high marks in voters’ minds. Those may dip after last night’s performance.

What becomes especially interesting is to turn from the question about electability to voters’ first choice for President. Leaving Christie on the list has a profound effect on Romney. Here is how respondents in our poll choose their first pick:

16% - Herman Cain
14% - Chris Christie
14% - Sarah Palin
13% - Mitt Romney
  9% - Michele Bachmann

Of the people in the following list, who would be your top pick for President in 2012 (assuming he/she is running)?

We have also included Paul Ryan on the list, despite his denials of interest in running, and he turns in a respectable 7%.  Without Christie and Ryan on the list, Romney’s numbers would likely jump. What is also clear is that Newt Gingrich’s disastrous start to his campaign has knocked him down from previous strong showings. And Tim Pawlenty continues to poll far below the level one might expect given his strong rollout, outbid by Rick Perry, whom we included given the recent interest in him.

We also asked respondents: Of the following people who have said they are NOT running for President in 2012, who do most wish WAS running?

While nearly 48% said they didn’t care that any of the following had dropped out, the rest responded this way:

25% - Mike Huckabee
12% - Mitch Daniels
  7% - Mike Pence
  6% - Haley Barbour
  3% - John Thune

The poll included 751 members of the Republican Panel, assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, and was conducted between June 9-12, 2011.

New poll: Grassroots voters think Republicans are succeeding on Medicare, failing on jobs

Ryan Streeter
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Here’s an interesting message the grassroots are sending through our latest Republican Panel poll to Republicans in Washington: “Yes, we support your Medicare plan, now go focus on jobs!”

In a poll of 736 conservative Republicans between June 8-11, 2011, we asked the following 2 questions:

1. Republicans in the House have proposed to change Medicare into a program that gives seniors a fixed amount of money each year so they can purchase insurance from a list of providers. These changes would apply to people 55 and under. Do you support the plan?
2. Do you think Republicans in Congress are doing enough to promote a jobs agenda?

The results of our poll should do two things:

1. Give the Republicans confidence that, despite the NY special election and the Democrats’ Mediscare tactics, GOP voters are standing with the GOP plan.
2. Send a strong signal to Republicans in Washington that, despite their best efforts, their jobs message is not getting through.

On the Medicare question:

• 70% support the GOP plan
• 11% do not
• 19% are unsure

Republicans in the House have proposed to change Medicare into a program that gives seniors a fixed amount of money each year so they can purchase insurance from a list of providers. These changes would apply to people 55 and under. Do you support the plan?

 

On the jobs question:

• 66% do NOT believe congressional Republicans are doing enough on jobs
• 16% believe they are
• 18% are unsure

Do you think Republicans in Congress are doing enough to promote a jobs agenda?

The 736 respondents in the poll are members of the Republican Panel, which has been assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov. The panel consists of self-identified conservative Republicans across the country, 70% of whom give either time or money to candidates.