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The first GOP debate, at which Tim Pawlenty arrived as the only serious contender, was a national springboard for Herman Cain. He was selected by the Fox News post-debate focus group as the winner, and that surely helped him in our poll.
He bounced out of nowhere to tie Chris Christie as respondents’ top pick in 2012. Since Christie has indicated he’s not running, that gives Cain the top spot among those who are (as with past polls, we have left Christie in for comparison and because he has not issued an official statement saying he won’t run).
The results below from our most recent Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll come from a sample of 871 conservative Republicans who were polled from May12-14. For this reason, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump remain in the results, since they made their announcements about not running after we fielded the poll.
Their inclusion – and especially Trump’s inclusion – is interesting. The Donald was clearly dropping fast after he hit his popularity peak. Our previous survey was fielded at the height of his media moment. Those who thought him most electable dropped from 15% to 6% of respondents in the past two weeks.
Gingrich saw a boost in his numbers. This is likely owing to the fact that he announced his candidacy just as we fielded the poll. Voters' support of Romney as a top pick for President has dropped slightly since our early April poll, and his electability numbers have dropped even more.
Finally, our poll suggests that Cain’s rise pulled from Huckabee and Bachmann slightly. It’s difficult to say if his rise is related to Trump’s decline, or if Trump’s decline has more to do with a fading new car smell.
Who do you think is most electable in 2012?
Who would be your first pick for President in 2012?
Who would be your second pick for President in 2012?
The 871 respondents in this poll were taken from the Republican Panel, assembled by YouGov for ConservativeHome.
