ConservativeHome's Survey blog

First Daily Caller-ConservativeHome 2012 Presidential Tracking Poll: Gingrich, Christie, and Romney all look strong

Today’s poll marks the first of a new biweekly 2012 presidential tracking poll cosponsored by ConservativeHome and the Daily Caller.

The tracking poll asks conservative Republicans their views of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates. Respondents are part of the ConservativeHome Republican Panel, which has been assembled by YouGov. They are likely primary voters, 70 percent of whom have donated time or money to candidates for public office.

We presented respondents with a list of potential candidates, and asked six questions. Here are the top five for each question we asked:

Who do you like the most?

1. 15% - Chris Christie
2. 14% - Sarah Palin
3. 12% - Newt Gingrich
4. 10% - Mitt Romney
5.   9% - Michele Bachmann

 Who is most likely to win in 2012?

1. 27% - Mitt Romney
2. 15% - Chris Christie
3. 12% - Newt Gingrich
4. 10% - Mike Huckabee
5.   6% - Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty (tie)

 Who is the most conservative?

1. 19% - Michele Bachmann
2. 16% - Sarah Palin
3. 14% - Ron Paul
4. 11% - Newt Gingrich
5.   7% - Chris Christie

Who would do the best job on the economy?

1. 16% - Chris Christie
2. 15% - Mitt Romney
3. 14% - Donald Trump
4. 10% - Newt Gingrich
5.   7% - Sarah Palin

 Who would do the best job keeping Washington’s spending under control?

1. 20% - Chris Christie
2. 11% - Newt Gingrich
3. 10% - Ron Paul and Sarah Palin (tie)
4.   9% - Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump (tie)

 Who would do the best job handling the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

1. 25% - John Bolton
2. 24% - Newt Gingrich
3.   7% - Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (tie)
4.   6% - Mike Huckabee

Newt Gingrich is the only individual to appear with double digits in each of the 6 categories.

Chris Christie is the only individual to garner 15% more than twice (he was above 15% in 4 categories). Romney was above 15% twice. Bolton, Gingrich and Palin were each above 15% once.

Respondents were able to make selections from the following list:

• Michele Bachmann
• Haley Barbour
• John Bolton
• Herman Cain
• Chris Christie
• Mitch Daniels
• Newt Gingrich
• Mike Huckabee
• John Hunstman
• Gary Johnson
• Sarah Palin
• Ron Paul
• Tim Pawlenty
• Rick Perry
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum
• Donald Trump

For the next tracking poll, we will add Buddy Roemer. We have kept Chris Christie on the list, despite his denials about running, for the sake of comparison (and in unlikely event he changes his mind!).

The poll consisted of responses from 736 members of the Republican Panel.

New poll: Grassroots conservatives warming to entitlement reform, but still wary of making the big changes

Ryan Streeter

In this week’s Republican Panel, ConservativeHome’s poll of self-described conservative Republicans, we find general support for making some of the changes necessary to reform Social Security and Medicare.

Respondents in the weekly poll have regularly supported making big spending cuts in Washington by overwhelming margins. However, when asked about reforming entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security, they have been less supportive in the past.

For instance, when asked what Congress should be doing to reduce the deficit, over half said spending cuts while a miniscule 3% said entitlement reform.

And when asked if they themselves would be willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits and to receive fewer benefits the wealthier they were, only a little more than a third said yes to both, while one in five opposed both. This suggests when asked about entitlement reforms in a personal way (“Would you be willing…”), support for reform drops.

This week we asked a question about entitlement reform this way:

Republicans in Congress plan to introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security in their budget this spring. Please check the box beside reforms that you support. Leave boxes unchecked if you DO NOT support the specific reform. [Note: Assume that the reforms listed below would not apply to anyone over age 55. Any feasible proposal will allow those at least 55 and over to stay in the current programs.]

The results show a healthy level of support for reform overall.

• 79% support allowing private savings accounts into which people can deposit some of their Social Security payroll taxes, if they choose
• 70% support raising the retirement age
• 51% support means-testing the programs (e.g., phase out benefits the wealthier the recipient)
• 39% support converting Medicare into a defined contribution program (i.e., a recipient receives a fixed amount each year from the government to use on health care, rather than having the government pay whatever amount of health care a recipient consumes, as is now the case)

 
Three observations:

1. Support is highest for the least consequential reform and lowest for the most consequential reform, so Republicans have some work to do. Private Social Security accounts should be central to a effort to reform Social Security, but they will have the smallest effect on cost-control. Defined contributions, which are central to Paul Ryan’s Roadmap, for instance, will have the greatest effect on cost control. This may simply be an issue of public communication and voter education.
2. Support is higher for raising the retirement age when reforms are de-personalized. 70% support raising the retirement age, but in a previous poll, when we asked “Are you willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits?” only 52% said yes. Having clarified in the question that reforms would not apply to people over 55 may have also boosted support.
3. Support for means-testing, while at 51%, is uncomfortably low among conservatives. The most likely reforms to find bipartisan support would be raising the retirement age and means-testing benefits. If only half of conservatives support the latter, we can expect much lower support among liberals, meaning that political resistance to the idea could be rather fierce.

We also asked respondents how pleased they are with how Republicans have been doing so far this year:

• 55% - Somewhat pleased
• 14% - Very pleased
• 13% - Neither pleased nor displeased
• 14% - Somewhat displeased
•   4% - Very displeased

These figures should be welcome news to Republicans. For grassroots conservatives who place a high value on spending restraint, the Republicans’ efforts on spending reduction have clearly created a favorable impression.

Knowing that respondents favor spending cuts by overwhelming margins, we asked this week about how closely those polled identify with the Tea Party:

• 58% - I sympathize with the Tea Party but don't consider myself a Tea Partier
• 35% - I’m a Tea Partier
•   4% - I don't sympathize with the Tea Party but I don't really have anything against it
•   2% - I really distrust the Tea Party
•   1% - I don't care for the Tea Party

This poll of the Republican Panel, which was assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, was conducted March7-9, 2011 among 734 conservative Republicans.

Cuts, cuts, cuts: Grassroots conservatives overwhelmingly want Republicans to focus on spending cuts, even if it means shutting down the government

Grassroots conservatives are still overwhelmingly preoccupied with spending cuts - so much so that they are quite content with the idea of a government shutdown if Democrats don't agree with Republican demands on cuts.

When asked what they most want to see congressional Republicans concentrating on, 53% say spending cuts. In a distant second is repealing ObamaCare, at 16.5%. Entitlement reform, which Republicans have promised in their spring budget, only garnered 9% of responses.

And when it comes to the question of a government shutdown, 71% of respondents say they think it is worth closing down the government if Democrats don't concede on the spending cuts that Republicans have proposed.

 

These results are from a survey of 536 conservatives in our Republican Panel conducted Feb. 27-28.  

78% of conservatives say Scott Walker is doing the right thing and shouldn't compromise

CBS trumpeted their survey this week as public support for organized labor. CBS's survey asked whether respondents thought public employees should have their pay and benefits cut so states could fix their deficit problems. 56% of respondents opposed pay and benefit cuts. A majority of respondents thought that government workers were compensated too little or about right, which probably helps explain the finding.

Our survey this week reveals a different kind of finding among grassroots conservatives. We asked about Gov. Scott Walker's handling of the standoff with organized labor in Wisconsin.

We gave respondents a choice between four options, asking them to choose which best reflects their view.

• 78% - Walker is doing the right thing and shouldn't compromise at all

• 13% - Walker should make public employees pay more into their retirement and health benefits but be willing to compromise on the rules governing collective bargaining

• 3% - Walker should be willing to compromise on all of the points under dispute

• 2% - Walker should try to end collective bargaining altogether

It's clear that conservatives overwhelmingly support the stance Walker is taking. It's also clear that they do not expect Walker to go farther than what he has proposed to end collective bargaining altogether.

These results are from a survey of 536 conservatives in our Republican Panel conducted Feb. 27-28. We will release more results from this survey tomorrow.