Ryan Streeter
In this week’s Republican Panel, ConservativeHome’s poll of self-described conservative Republicans, we find general support for making some of the changes necessary to reform Social Security and Medicare.
Respondents in the weekly poll have regularly supported making big spending cuts in Washington by overwhelming margins. However, when asked about reforming entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security, they have been less supportive in the past.
For instance, when asked what Congress should be doing to reduce the deficit, over half said spending cuts while a miniscule 3% said entitlement reform.
And when asked if they themselves would be willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits and to receive fewer benefits the wealthier they were, only a little more than a third said yes to both, while one in five opposed both. This suggests when asked about entitlement reforms in a personal way (“Would you be willing…”), support for reform drops.
This week we asked a question about entitlement reform this way:
Republicans in Congress plan to introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security in their budget this spring. Please check the box beside reforms that you support. Leave boxes unchecked if you DO NOT support the specific reform. [Note: Assume that the reforms listed below would not apply to anyone over age 55. Any feasible proposal will allow those at least 55 and over to stay in the current programs.]
The results show a healthy level of support for reform overall.
- 79% support allowing private savings accounts into which people can deposit some of their Social Security payroll taxes, if they choose
- 70% support raising the retirement age
- 51% support means-testing the programs (e.g., phase out benefits the wealthier the recipient)
- 39% support converting Medicare into a defined contribution program (i.e., a recipient receives a fixed amount each year from the government to use on health care, rather than having the government pay whatever amount of health care a recipient consumes, as is now the case)
Three observations:
- Support is highest for the least consequential reform and lowest for the most consequential reform, so Republicans have some work to do. Private Social Security accounts should be central to a effort to reform Social Security, but they will have the smallest effect on cost-control. Defined contributions, which are central to Paul Ryan’s Roadmap, for instance, will have the greatest effect on cost control. This may simply be an issue of public communication and voter education.
- Support is higher for raising the retirement age when reforms are de-personalized. 70% support raising the retirement age, but in a previous poll, when we asked “Are you willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits?” only 52% said yes. Having clarified in the question that reforms would not apply to people over 55 may have also boosted support.
- Support for means-testing, while at 51%, is uncomfortably low among conservatives. The most likely reforms to find bipartisan support would be raising the retirement age and means-testing benefits. If only half of conservatives support the latter, we can expect much lower support among liberals, meaning that political resistance to the idea could be rather fierce.
We also asked respondents how pleased they are with how Republicans have been doing so far this year:
- 55% - Somewhat pleased
- 14% - Very pleased
- 13% - Neither pleased nor displeased
- 14% - Somewhat displeased
- 4% - Very displeased
These figures should be welcome news to Republicans. For grassroots conservatives who place a high value on spending restraint, the Republicans’ efforts on spending reduction have clearly created a favorable impression.
Knowing that respondents favor spending cuts by overwhelming margins, we asked this week about how closely those polled identify with the Tea Party:
- 58% - I sympathize with the Tea Party but don't consider myself a Tea Partier
- 35% - I’m a Tea Partier
- 4% - I don't sympathize with the Tea Party but I don't really have anything against it
- 2% - I really distrust the Tea Party
- 1% - I don't care for the Tea Party
This poll of the Republican Panel, which was assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, was conducted March7-9, 2011 among 734 conservative Republicans.
