ConservativeHome's Survey blog

Conservative influencers and activists agree: Republicans should tackle entitlements this year rather than waiting until 2012

Conservative insiders and grassroots activists, whom we poll separately, may have different views on who emerged from CPAC as the strongest 2012 contender, but the are agreed on this: they both think Republicans should tackle entitlements this year in their budget rather than waiting until 2012 in hopes of a Republican occupying the White House.

• 62% of influencers said they thought Republicans should propose entitlement reform measures in their budget this spring, while 38% said they thought it better to hold off for now
• 65% of grassroots conservatives* said they thought Congress should introduce entitlement reforms this year, while 24% said they thought lawmakers should wait until 2012; and 5% said they thought Congress shouldn't touch entitlements at all.

These numbers bode well for the GOP leadership, who have been migrating toward an affirmative answer when asked whether they'll include entitlement reform in their budget this year. Of course, support for entitlement reform as a spending issue is different than support for entitlement reform perceived as a reduction in my benefits.

* Since our previous polling has shown that conservatives care about spending cuts over entitlement reform by a long shot, the question in the poll was worded this way: "Republicans are currently debating whether they should try to introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security this year in order to slow the growth of costs in those programs. Do you think they should introduce the reforms this year?" However, we have also learned that when presented with specific reforms such as raising the retirement age or means-testing benefits, conservatives grow less supportive of entitlement reform.

Conservative influentials liked Mitch Daniels, grassroots activists preferred Ron Paul, at CPAC last week

We asked our ConservativeHome100, a panel of conservative insiders and influencers, who they thought emerged from CPAC last week as the winner among the 2012 presidential potentials who spoke.

Their response? Hands-down: Mitch Daniels. Two-thirds of them gave Daniels the highest marks.

We also asked our Republican Panel, our poll of self-identified conservative Republicans across the country, who they thought emerged as the winner.

Their response? Ron Paul. Not hands-down, though. Twenty-one percent favored Paul above the others. Mitt Romney came in second with just 11% of the vote.

More interesting among Republican Panel respondents is that 34%, more than selected Paul, checked the box labeled: "I don't know; I didn't really follow CPAC." Since Ron Paul won the straw poll at CPAC, it's also likely that a number of respondents were influenced by the coverage.

Whatever the case, Daniels - as much of his post-CPAC speech coverage (here's George Will yesterday, Peggy Noonan today, and Mike Gerson today) indicates - has won the affection of insiders and influencers. If Daniels decides to run, his next stop will need to be the grassroots, which for now, is dominated more by figures such as Paul, Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich - all who have the widest name recognition. 

ConservativeHome Poll: Message from conservative activists to House Republicans: "Nice job on spending cuts, but where's your plan for job growth?"

Ryan Streeter

This week’s Republican Panel, a poll* of grassroots conservatives across America, delivers a clear, concise message to Republicans:

• You’re doing a pretty good job showing leadership on spending cuts
• But we want you to go even deeper on cuts than you’re proposing
• And, by the way, you’re doing a bad job of explaining what your plan for job growth is

On the last point, House Republicans have been trying to communicate that spending cuts will result in job growth. That clearly hasn’t been getting through. At a basic level Americans understand that we need more than just cuts and reductions in spending to create a growth environment. Surely cuts are a necessary, but not sufficient, condition – to borrow from the philosopher’s lexicon.

49% believe congressional Republicans have done a good job over the past few weeks in their efforts to cut spending, compared to 36% who disagree. See Chart 1 below.

46% believe that Republicans should shoot for more than $100 billion in cuts, compared to 31% who say can live with $100 billion.

20% say they want to see more than $100 billion in cuts, plus cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

Speaking of entitlements, this brings us to two other interesting findings.

65% of respondents say that Republicans should introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security in Congress this year, compared to 24% who say it’s better to wait until 2012 in hopes that a Republican is in the White House. 5% say not to touch the two entitlement programs altogether.

66%, however, said that when it comes to what Republicans should focus on now, spending cuts should be the top priority, compared to 14% who say they should talk a little less about spending and more about entitlement reform.  Another 10% say they should focus more on repealing ObamaCare than on spending cuts.

But when it comes to jobs, Republicans need to explain more clearly what they’re plan is (if they have one):

69% of respondents say Republicans are not doing a good job explaining their plans for job creation and economic growth, compared to 21% who say they are doing a good job on this front. See Chart 2 below.

Chart 1: Do you think congressional Republicans have done a good job over the past few weeks in their efforts to cut spending?



Chart 2: Do you think congressional Republicans have done a good job explaining their plans for job creation and economic growth?

* This week's Republican Panel is based on 740 responses from the overall panel of 2,000+ individuals, assembled for ConservativeHome.com by YouGov.

Entitlement reform reality check: Only a little more than a third of conservative voters are willing to work longer and scale benefits toward those who need them most

In this week’s Republican Panel, we asked about two likely reforms that Congress would pursue to reform Medicare and Social Security: raise the retirement age and means-test benefits so the richer you are, the less you get.

The question was worded as follows:

Many Republicans are saying we cannot get spending under control unless we reform Social Security and Medicare. Would you be willing to wait until you’re 70 before receiving benefits from these programs, and willing to receive fewer benefits the wealthier you are when you retire?

Here’s how the panel responded:

• 35% - Yes on both counts
• 26% - I’m willing to receive fewer benefits the wealthier I am when I retire, but not wait until I’m 70 to start receiving them
• 22% - No, I am unwilling on both counts
• 17% - I’m willing to wait until I’m 70 before receiving benefits, but not receive fewer benefits the wealthier I am

The fact that only a third of respondents are willing on both counts, while those who are unwilling on both counts represent more than one-fifth, is somewhat startling.

The Republican Panel consists of conservatives who have repeatedly shown a deep aversion to federal spending. But like most Americans, they are less inclined to oppose federal spending that benefits them.

On another spending issue, panelists show their solid fiscal conservatism in clear terms: state bailouts. When asked what the federal government should do about the growing number of states facing fiscal crises, respondents showed their fiscally conservative stripes.

• Only 4% said the feds should bail out states in certain instances
• 60% said that Congress should pass a law prohibiting the feds from bailing out states
• 25% said Congress should pass a law making state bankruptcy legal

So, when it comes to states' budgets, our panel is as solidly opposed to having the federal government step in and save the day.