ConservativeHome's Survey blog

America's most influential conservatives support higher retirement ages, private accounts much more than spending constraints in Social Security reform

The ConservativeHome100 is our poll of some of America's most influential conservatives. 

The poll includes notables such as Arthur Brooks, David Frum, John Podhoretz, John O'Sullivan, Reihan Salam, and Karl Rove. Some members have asked to remain anonymous.

Last week's poll focused on the Bush tax cuts, which continues to be relevant this week given the debate in Washington about whether and how to extend them. If you missed it, the results are here.

This week, in light of the ongoing debate about the Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction proposals, we asked the ConservativeHome100 panel about reforming Social Security.

When asked about making Social Security solvent in the long-term, respondents were asked which policy solutions they support:

• 90% support raising the retirement age to 70 for people 40 years old and younger
• 88% support allowing people under 40 years of age to invest in voluntary private accounts
• 53% support cutting benefits
• 12% support reasonable tax increases

When asked whether bipartisan progress on Social Security is possible in the 112th Congress:

• 43% said yes
• 41% said no
• 16% said they were unsure

The ConservativeHome100 panel and the Republican Panel, our poll of grassroots conservatives, support private accounts at similar rates. But the former is more supportive or raising the retirement age than the latter. 

Well-informed, influential conservatives clearly see significant reforms such as private accounts and raised retirement ages as more consequential than spending constraint.

Perhaps the radical nature of these reforms explains why less than half of respondents believe bi-partisan reform is possible.The most needed changes to Social Security are undoubtedly unpopular - and therefore politically difficult.

Conservative activists: give us private Social Security accounts, extend the Bush tax cuts for ALL income brackets, and replace Michael Steele

Ryan Streeter

The Republican Panel is ConservativeHome’s weekly poll of active conservatives across America.  More than two-thirds of respondents have given money or time to political candidates.

This week’s Republican Panel surveyed 1,066 individuals on 3 big issues facing the GOP and America: the Bush tax cuts, Social Security reform, and the leadership of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

Here's an overview of the results:

• Support for extending the Bush tax cuts for ALL income brackets – and not just the wealthy – is overwhelming: 86% of respondents hold this view. Clearly, grassroots conservatives favor equal treatment in the tax code when it comes to tax cuts.
• Support for private accounts in Social Security is also overwhelming, with 78% saying they believe people under 40 should be allowed to invest in private accounts rather than staying in the traditional program.
• A majority of conservatives believe that the Social Security retirement age should be raised for Americans under 40.
• And, finally, the largest share - 39% - of conservatives believe that Michael Steele should be replaced at the RNC. However, 25% of respondents have no opinion on the matter, suggesting real issues - such as taxes and Social Security - are more important to ordinary voters than the Washington political class.

The Bush tax cuts are set to expire at the end of the year unless Congress extends them. When asked their view of extending the cuts, here's how those polled responded: 

• 86% said the Bush tax cuts should be extended for all income brackets
• 10% said the Bush tax cuts should be extended for everyone except those earning more than $1 million
• 4% said the Bush tax cuts should be extended for everyone except those earning more than $250,000
• 1% said the Bush tax cuts should expire at the end of the year

78% of respondents favor allowing people under the age of 40 to begin investing in private savings accounts instead of paying into the traditional Social Security program.

55% of respondents support raising the Social Security retirement age to 70 for everyone under 40 years of age, compared to the 29% who do not. 

39% of respondents think that Michael Steele "has been a bad RNC chairman and should be replaced." 

And finally, when asked whether they are fiscally conservative, socially conservative, both or neither, the majority said both:

• 58% said they are both fiscally and socially conservative
• 37% said they are more fiscally than socially conservative
• 3% said they are more socially than fiscally conservative
• 2% said they are neither

 

America's leading conservatives tell ConHomeUSA that they expect Obama to agree two year extension of Bush's tax cuts

Yesterday we launched The Republican Panel. The Panel's more-than-two-thousand-members gave their views on the 2012 candidates and Republican priorities. Click here if you missed it.

As well as the weekly Panel we are also polling one hundred 'conservative influentials;' commentators, bloggers, think tank chiefs and aides to elected officials who keep a close, professional eye on politics.

Some members have asked to remain anonymous but what we are calling the ConservativeHome100 includes notables such as Arthur Brooks of AEI, David Frum, John Podhoretz, John O'Sullivan, Reihan Salam, and Karl Rove.

The results of the first 100 survey are posted below.

In question one we asked: "When it comes to extending the Bush tax cuts, which policy do you personally believe is best for the country?"

• An overwhelming 84% said that extending all the cuts "long-term" was best for America.
• 15% said the best thing was for the cuts to be extended for two years.
• 2% said allowing taxes to rise on those earning over $250,000 was the right way forward.

Our second question focused not on what the influentials wanted to happen but on what they expected to happen:

• 87% expected the Obama administration and Democrats to agree to a two year extension of the Bush tax cuts.
• 8% expected them to expire because of a stalemate.
• 6% expected Republicans strike a deal with the Democrats that raises taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Although such a large majority of conservatives expect this compromise, many liberal Democrats are still fighting any extension of tax relief for wealthier Americans. Politico has a report on Obama's disgruntled Left.

First Weekly Republican Poll shows intense desire to repeal Obamacare, and a love of Sarah and Newt (but Mitt as more electable)

This week’s inaugural ConservativeHome Republican Panel* shows that Republican activists across the nation want Obamacare repealed, lower taxes, more jobs…and Sarah Palin more than any other 2012 presidential contender.

The poll, which surveyed 2,236 strong conservative identifiers between November 10 and 16, shows a deep dissatisfaction with how Republicans in Washington have grown used to spending money and letting government grow. 69% of those surveyed have given time or money to candidates in the past four years.

When it comes to the issue on which respondents would most like to see Republicans in Washington show leadership, repealing Obamacare tops the list. The top four responses are:

• 88% - Repeal Obamacare           
• 53% - Lower taxes                     
• 47% - Create job
• 46% - Reform immigration          

When we look specifically at what voters hope Republicans will do to help their economic prospects, lowering taxes is atop the list.  The top four responses are:

• 66% - Lower tax rates
• 54% - Rapid job creation
• 50% - Make it more appealing to start a business     
• 48% - Keep jobs from going overseas                  

Respondents were also asked about the top 3 ways in which Republicans had let voters down. Here’s how they responded:

• 79% - Republicans have gotten too used to spending taxpayers money
• 69% - Republicans have stopped caring about the size of government
• 41% - Republicans were paying too much attention to special interests rather than “my concerns.”
• 36% - Republicans have grown too comfortable with power
• 27% - Republicans have stopped being the party of ideas
• 25% - Republicans have stopped talking about values and cultural issues
• 11% - Republicans have not worked hard enough to make the GOP more diverse
•   8% - Republicans have not done enough for lower income families and individuals

And what about 2012? Sarah Palin is the panel’s favorite candidate, but Mitt Romney is viewed as the most electable.

Which 2012 presidential contender is your favorite:

• 23% - Sarah Palin
• 21% - Newt Gingrich
• 18% - Mitt Romney
• 13% - Mike Huckabee
•   7% - Jeb Bush
•   7% - Tim Pawlenty
•   5% - Mike Pence
•   4% - John Thune
•   3% - Mitch Daniels

Which 2012 presidential contender is the most likely to win the nomination:

• 35% - Mitt Romney
• 17% - Sarah Palin
• 15% - Newt Gingrich
• 12% - Mike Huckabee
•   9% - Tim Pawlenty
•   4% - Jeb Bush
•   3% - John Thune
•   2% - Mitch Daniels

When asked which of the following 5 “new faces” in the GOP over the past few years gave them the most hope for the future, respondents said:

• 40% - Chris Christie
• 34% - Marco Rubio
• 12% - Rand Paul
• 12% - Bobby Jindal
•   2% - Susana Martinez

The newly elected class of 2010 in Washington can take heart from this:

When asked how confident they were that GOP gains on November 2 would put America back on track, 54% said they were “somewhat confident” and 20% said “very confident.”  19% hedged their bets and said they are "unsure."

Given the Constitution, the House is quite limited in what it can do to push an agenda while Obama is in the White House, as John Boehner and other top Republicans have been trying to communicate to the public. The message hasn't quite gotten through to the activists yet.

We will be including ConservativeHome readers in a second Republican Panel poll. If you would like to join and take part in a short weekly survey on important issues for the GOP, please click here. 

*The ConservativeHome Republican Panel

This sample is a panel of people identifying strongly as conservatives, 69% of whom have contributed to or volunteered for a Republican candidate in the past 4 years.  The panel was recruited specifically for ConservativeHome by the online research agency YouGov, selected from its own panel. The criteria for inclusion were: (a) having previously told YouGov they were "conservative" or "very conservative" or a Republican party identifier (b) identifying in a subsequent survey as having contributed or volunteered for at least one Republican candidate in the past four years; (c) willingness to join a continuing survey panel for ConservativeHome.com. The fieldwork was conducted 10-16 November 2010.

YouGov, based in Palo Alto, is a non-partisan online polling organization, which has compiled an impressive record for accuracy in predicting state and national election outcomes. In 2010, its election forecast was more accurate than any other polling organization, forecasting a 7% Republican advantage in the national Congressional vote and a 63 seat gain for Republicans in the House of Representatives. YouGov has polled in hundreds of statewide races, consistently ranking at the top of all polling organizations for predictive accuracy.

The ConservativeHome100

ConservativeHome is enlisting 100 of the most influential think tankers, bloggers, activists, andother opinion-shapers on the right side of America in a weekly survey on big issues. 

The survey, ConservativeHome100, will be a weekly gauge of what America's conservative influencers think about issues you care about most.

Check back here weekly for updates and survey results.

Join The Republican Panel

ConservativeHome is working with a major, nationwide pollster to publish a weekly poll of Republican supporters. We launch the survey on Monday.

We also want to survey our readers...