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ConHomeUSA's latest survey of its Republican Panel* finds a big increase in support for Rick Santorum in answer to the question "Who would you most like to win the Republican nomination?". The former Senator has leapfrogged Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann to establish himself as the third-placed candidate.

The same survey - regardless of their preferences - found that 77% of Panel members expect Romney to become the GOP candidate.

The Republican base begins 2012 with nearly two-thirds believing that their candidate will beat Obama in November. There is more optimism about taking the Senate. 71% expect the GOP to take control of the US Senate in elections at the end of this year.

In January 2011 - in the aftermath of Barack Obama's poor mid-term results - the numbers were very similar but there was slightly higher optimism for keeping the House. The numbers were House 93%, Senate 71%, White House 65%.

The person they do not want is Ron Paul. 56% say that Ron Paul is NOT a proper Republican and 33% say they would NOT support him in a general election:

* The poll was conducted among 804 Republican voters, who are part of The ConservativeHome Republican Panel, assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov.

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