A former White House and congressional advisor on welfare issues, Ron Haskins co-directs the Brookings Center on Children and Families. An expert on preschool, foster care, and poverty, he was instrumental in the 1996 overhaul of national welfare policy.
Anyone involved in the welfare reform negotiations on the Hill in the mid-1990s knows Ron Haskins. And anyone who has followed the debate since then about poverty and opportunity knows him as well. His reputation for being principled, data-driven, and fair-minded are well known.
As part of the Clapham Group-ConservativeHome series on conservatism, poverty, and opportunity, Ryan Streeter put 3 questions to Ron:
- When you look out over the next 20 or 30 years, which socioeconomic trends worry you the most?
- What do you think of the welfare provisions the Republicans included in their 2012 budget?
- What can policymakers do to accelerate an increase in the earning power of low- and lower-middle income people in America?
As usual, Ron’s words are instructive for those who want to understand the nature of poverty in America today and what we should do about it.
RS: You've long studied the sources of poverty in America. When you look out over the next 20 or 30 years, which socioeconomic trends worry you the most?
Haskins: Wages are definitely a problem. At the 10th percentile, wages have not increased in 3 decades. They’ve gone down, and they’ve gone up, but in 2008 they were basically at 1979 levels. In the middle of the income distribution, you get some increase and at the top the increases are very substantial. The problem is that we’re always going to have people at the 10th percentile, so rising wages at the bottom of the distribution are important if you care about the poor.
Family composition, though, is another huge issue, which just about everyone has realized by now. Stated succinctly, the poverty rate in female-headed families is about five or six time the rate in married-couple families. Given that a relentlessly growing share of children live in female-headed families, the nation’s poverty rate has a powerful force pushing it upwards. For example, 70% of black children are born to single parents. Hispanic nonmarital birth rates are close to 50%. The rate is also going up among whites. Divorce rates have been pretty steady since 1980s, so the biggest problem is nonmarital births. The rise of female-headed families is probably the single most important factor driving poverty in America.
We have good evidence on how to reduce non-marital births among teens, but much less among those in their 20s and older. The overall effect is that the birth rate among never-married women is still going up, though not as much as in past. But it’s still a major part of the nation’s poverty problem.
Middle class people with college degrees divorce at much lower rates than those with less education and rarely have nonmarital births. The old-fashioned way is still the best path: get married, stay married.
The differences in nonmarital birth rates and divorce rates by mothers’ education has self-reinforcing effects. Middle class families are already ahead of the game because they’re middle class; then they pass their values, high educational achievement, and family stability to their kids. Meanwhile, poorer families go in the other direction. Harvard’s Kathy Edin has done important work on the impacts of frequent changes in household composition as part of Princeton’s Fragile Families project. By age 5, children of never-married mothers will often have a sibling fathered by someone other than their own father living in their household and many additional mothers will have had live-in boyfriends. The result is you have this huge complexity of who’s related to whom, what a family is, who can discipline the child, and so on. This household complexity and turmoil takes a toll on the children.
Another troubling factor influencing the poverty rate is non-work. I’m really concerned about this trend in America: a long, slow decline in what’s called the employment-to-population ratio for adult males and especially young adult and minority males. The employment-to-population ratio is the percentage of the working-age population that is actually employed. The ratio has dropped slowly for males for the past 3 decades, well before the recessions of 2001 and 2007-09.
By contrast,work rates for single mothers in general and especially never-married mothers have increased substantially. The rate for never-married mothers, for example, increased 40% between 1995 and 1999, in large part because of welfare reform. Primarily as a result of these exploding work rates, the poverty rate of single mothers and their children dropped precipitously after 1994, reaching its lowest rate since we started record-keeping. Then, it went up after 2000, but even in 2009, after two recessions in ten years, the employment-to-population ratio was still 13% higher among women than in had been before welfare reform and their poverty rate was still much lower than before welfare reform. Work rates among single mothers is a positive story in the era of welfare reform, but work rates among males are not, and they’re abysmal among young black males. This situation among males is bad andgetting worse.
If you look at the population as a whole, work rates in the United States were always higher than those in Europe in terms of the employment-population ratio, but that has now changed. And it’s driven by a long-term secular trend, especially among males, and more especially among black men.
When you roll stagnant wages at the bottom of the distribution, big declines in married-couple families, and falling work rates among males together, the outlook for significantly reducing poverty is really tough.