Natalie Gonnella
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Barely into it's second presidential election cycle, new media has already had an astoinishing impact on American politics, and YouTube is ready to celebrate.
Commemorating five years of an ever-increasing presence in the US political arena, here's a look at how the video site has so far made it's mark on Washington:
Natalie Gonnella
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With soaring unemployment, stagnated growth, and the first ever US credit downgrade, it's no surprise that Americans are disappointed with their elected leaders (President Obama included).
And after a tumultuous month of debt debate, barely eight months into the current term, according to Gallup, registered voters are already looking for a change when it comes to the 112th Congress.
In the latest congressional approval poll, just 21% of registered voters feel that most lawmakers deserve reelection - the lowest percentage on record in the 20 year history Gallup has asked this question.
But while Americans' collective view of Congress has rapidly deteriorated, when it comes to their own district, Americans appear far more forgiving (likely due to more localized support). Overall, more than half of likely voters say their Representative deserves re-election. But while this seems more encouraging, Gallup does note that:
Even though a majority believes their own representative should be re-elected, the current percentage is on the low end of what Gallup has measured historically. The lowest readings were 48% in October 1992 and 49% on two occasions in 2010.
As lawmakers ready for their return to Washington in September, with concern growing over the upcoming super committee and the subsequent effects of the S&P downgrade, it will be interesting to see how voters' views will change (for better or worse) as the next phase of the budget battle gets underway.
The full analysis from Gallup's latest congressional poll is available to view here.
Ryan Streeter
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According to this week's WSJ-NBC poll, pessimism about the economy is on the rise. Since January, the percentage of Americans saying the economy will improve in the next year dropped from 40% to 26%. Those who think it will worsen rose from 17% to 31%.
The Gallup poll released yesterday contained similar results. The percentage of those believing the economy is improving has slid noticeably in the past two months, from 37% to 26%, which is below where we were last year at this time and consistent with the gloomy mood in the early recession days.
The recent jobs report and just about every other economic indicator spell trouble for President Obama.
And that's not all. While the next election will be a referendum on the economy, it will also be a referendum on spending. Unless Obama shifts his policies and posture on spending radically, he stands a very good chance of ending up a one-term president.
That's the conclusion one can take from Michael Barone's excellent new analysis at The American.
He writes:
From 1996 through 2008 there is only a 1% difference between the Democratic percentages for president and the House; between 1952 and 1992, with the single exception of 1964, when Lyndon Johnson ran ahead of Democratic congressional candidates, Democratic House candidates’ percentage ranged from 5% to 14% higher than Democrats’ percentages for president.
The question then suggests itself: to what extent can we consider the popular vote for the House in off-year elections as a prediction of the presidential vote in the next election? The answer appears to be: pretty good.
The trend suggests that voters offer their verdict of a president in a manner very much like the verdict they rendered on his party two years earlier.
Barone notes that the only exception to this is when the president makes a significant and noticeable shift on policy.
While there are a number of reasons events could conspire to break with this pattern, the conclusion is clear: if Obama stays the course he is on, he will be sailing in very treacherous waters.
The gloomy mood of the American public shows just how weak Hope-and-Change turned out to be as political currency. Obama can't cash that check again. He is now running on his record, which unfortunately for him has as its centerpiece a highly unpopular, deficit-spiking health care law sitting fouly amidst a sputtering economy. Voters showed what they thought of all that in 2010.
And if Barone is right, the verdict in 2012 will look similar. That would be some hope and change worth believing in.
Natalie Gonnella
He's only been in office for three months, but most of America is already fairly familiar with Governor Scott Walker.
With a budget repair bill that caused a furor of controversy, including a lengthy standoff with Democrats and pro-labor protesters, Walker's first 100 days in office have been anything but dull.
Reflecting on the state's eventful start to 2011, the freshman Governor weighed in on his first months in office during an interview this morning with Milwaukee's Newsradio 620 WTMJ.
Here's a quick look at what he had to say about his experience as governor thus far:
On how he feels about his first 100 days in office:
It feels good. I think we've signed more bills into law than any governor in the last 30 years. Almost every one of them has been job related, and we said early on that Wisconsin was open for business. I think we've shown it in the first 100 days that we're serious about it. We need to continue to do that. That's the one thing that's going to bring the state of Wisconsin together is a better economy.
On a grade for his first months in office:
I think for all the things we said we'd do right now, an A. We talked about a special session on jobs. We acted on that early in the first 30 to 40 days. We talked about balancing the budget without raising taxes and doing things for the economy. We're on pace. There's a lot of work to be done yet. There's much more work to get the state working again, to reach our goals of 250,000 jobs, but in the end, we're on the pace we set. It is an aggressive pace, but I think any time you face a crisis, and in this case, both an economic and fiscal crisis, you've gotta move quickly, and that's what we've done.
On his message to Wisconsin residents:
I think for us, it's clear. We want to get Wisconsin working again. People are ready to get back to work. They're ready to have government that works for them. We're going to continue to push reforms to get both the economy going, as well as the state government working better for the people of the state.
On his top goals for the next 100 days:
For us, it's going to be certainly jobs, helping small businesses create more jobs in this state. That continues to be the number one priority and nearly all of our focus, but along with that, education reform, finding more affordable health care options for small businesses. It's putting in energy policies to help grow the state's economy. All those things are the things we're going to be pushing out there, and probably the big thing is making government run better. Part of our budget reforms were allowing schools, for example, to put the best and the brightest in the classroom, put staffing in place based on performance and merit, and not based on seniority. Those are the things we're pushing in place to make Wisconsin work better. I think we're going to have great success.
The full text of the Governor's recent radio interview is available here.
Natalie Gonnella
GOP freshmen have been among the most vocal members of the 112th Congress, but while many have taken bold initiative to address domestic concerns, when it comes to foreign policy, the majority of Republican newbies have remained conspicuously silent.
While most newcomers have avoided weighing in on international affairs, Senator Marco Rubio has been a vivid exception. In his short time in Washington, the Florida Senator has not only offered strong, sober solutions to a number of domestic policy issues (spending cuts, the debt crisis, entitlement reform), but he has also taken a vested interest in global matters including trade and development, the promotion of democracy and good governance, and the protection of human dignity. And since his election in November, Senator Rubio has already visited Israel, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Just this week in response to the ongoing situation in Libya, Senator Rubio wasted little time in articulating his support for a bipartisan resolution authorizing US operations and the removal of Qaddafi's regime, sending a letter to Senate leaders, urging Congress to take action as soon as possible:
As long as Qaddafi remains in power, he will be in a position to terrorize his own people and potentially the rest of the world. In fact he has vowed to turn rebel strongholds into "rivers of blood." If he succeeds, it will provide a blueprint to repressive regimes across the Middle East in the use of force against unarmed civilians. And unlike the conflicts in other nations in the region, the rebels in Libya have requested and welcome our support. At the end of the day, the fact remains that our nation is not like other countries. The United States is an exceptional country with exceptional powers. But that power comes with unique moral obligations and responsibilities. The world is a better place when America is willing to lead. And American leadership is required now more than ever. It is my hope that you will lead the Senate to take actions along these lines as soon as possible.
And earlier in March, in a robust op-ed at NRO, Senator Rubio called on the Obama Administration to take immediate action in response to the continued atrocities committed by Qaddafi's regime against the Libyan people:
Without hesitation, Americans should condemn the brutal Gaddafi regime and this wanton killing of civilians. We should unflinchingly support the Libyan people’s legitimate demands to build a freer and peaceful country. Unfortunately, the administration’s initial response has been inadequate. Instead of taking the initiative, the administration is relying on other countries and international bodies to lead. For example, it makes no sense to rely on the United Nations Human Rights Council, a body that has long been comprised of and even led by some of the world’s worst human-rights abusers, including Libya. Instead, we should immediately engage willing partners to limit the regime’s ability to wage war against its own citizens.
Although it is still early in the term, among current lawmakers Senator Rubio has demonstrated that he is one of the most versatile and well-informed members of the GOP freshman class, and his congressional peers (and several of the 2012 prospects) would do well to take notice. Here’s a look at what Senator Rubio has had to say on a number of global issues since taking office in January:
In response to the recent terrorist bombing in Israel, Senator Rubio commented:
The bombing in Jerusalem is another tragic reminder of the persistent threats to Israel’s security. I condemn this murderous act in the strongest terms and pray for the victims, their families and the entire state of Israel that mourns. As long as terrorists reject Israel’s right to exist and deploy these types of heinous acts, there cannot be lasting peace in the region. America has a responsibility to stand with Israel and support its right to protect the Israeli people. We must also insist that the onus for change to achieve a two-state solution be on rejecting violence and accepting Israel’s existence.
As President Obama prepared for his trip to South and Central America, Senator Rubio was one of the principle Senators behind a letter urging the Administration to revisit the Colombia and Panama Free Trade Agreements, and to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). The letter stressed that:
By opening up a bold trade agenda encompassing the Western Hemisphere, you will create opportunities for higher incomes in the U.S. and foreign policy stability and growth in our own hemisphere…In these times of international instability, our mission and this free trade initiative would go a long way towards ensuring peace and economic growth in our region of the planet.
In conjunction with the letter, Rubio also penned an op-ed via the National Review's The Corner reminding Washington that:
Our Latin American allies are not going to wait around forever for America to get its act together. During the president’s trip to Latin America, I hope his eyes will be opened to the reality that the void of sustained, proactive American engagement in Latin America is being filled by other nations who recognize the opportunities in the region. Although he is not even visiting Colombia and Panama next week, meeting face-to-face with their leaders and telling them what it will take for these agreements to earn his support, I hope the president understands the economic and strategic consequences of pursuing his job-destroying policy of trade inaction.
While the Administration prepared to relax certain restrictions on travel and remittances to Cuba, Senator Rubio strongly articulated his opposition to the measure, commenting in a statement that:
I strongly oppose any new changes that weaken U.S. policy towards Cuba. I was opposed to the changes that have already been made by this administration and I oppose these new changes. I believe that what does need to change are the Cuban regime's repressive policies towards the independent press and labor unions, its imprisonment of political prisoners and constant harassment of citizens with dissenting views, and its refusal to allow free multi-party elections. It is unthinkable that the administration would enable the enrichment of Cuban regime that routinely violates the basic human rights and dignity of its people.
And as American contractor Alan Gross was unjustly sentenced to 15 years in a Cuban jail by the Castro ergime, Senator Rubio condemned the decision and the Obama Administration's own Cuban policy, commenting that:
The Cuban regime's 15-year prison sentence for Alan Gross is a deplorable attack on freedom. Earlier this week, the Obama Administration approved new expanded travel to Cuba, a state sponsor of terrorism. With Mr. Gross' sentencing, the Castro regime has effectively demonstrated the hopeless and dangerous naiveté of this Administration's policy toward the regime. Mr. Gross is simply a humanitarian who was seeking to help the Jewish community in Cuba access the internet, and he deserves to be freed and reunited with his family at once. I strongly urge President Obama and Secretary Clinton to immediately halt the issuance of new Cuba travel licenses approved this week.
In recognition of the one-year anniversary of the devastating earthquake in Haiti, Senator Rubio reiterated his support for development efforts, noting in a statement that:
On this first anniversary of the earthquake in Haiti, I commend the efforts of U.S. law enforcement, civilian and military personnel who have been dealing with this crisis, as well as non-government and faith-based organizations that have answered the call to provide relief to the Haitian people. While there is still much work to be done, on behalf of Florida, I offer my gratitude for their service to our Haitian neighbors. Last year's earthquake was a tragedy of epic proportions that has been further aggravated by new challenges to rebuilding efforts, public health and security. Haiti's continued devastation is nothing short of a humanitarian crisis. Beyond offering our solidarity and continued prayers for the Haitian people and those working on rebuilding efforts, I also offer my assistance as a U.S. senator in providing support, cooperation and oversight for policies that help build lasting government institutions, establish the rule of law, encourage a vibrant private sector and enable a strong civil society to flourish in Haiti. In recent weeks, I have spoken to my colleagues about the current state and future of Haiti. I pledge to work with them on this issue, which I believe is of vital interest to our state, country and entire hemisphere.
