ConservativeHome's Survey blog

Grassroots conservatives have backbone: they still support the war on terror and increasingly want to take on entitlements

Ryan Streeter
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On the biggest foreign policy and domestic policy questions of the day, grassroots conservatives seem to be feeling their oats.

Think the grassroots want out of Afghanistan now that bin Laden is dead? Think again. Think conservatives are still unclear about whether entitlements or spending are a graver threat to our fiscal well-being? Think again.

In our latest poll of of 878 conservative Republicans, taken from our Republican Panel which was assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, a plurality of conservatives want to stay and finish the job in Afghanistan "no matter how long it takes." And, among those who support Congress's raising the debt ceiling on the condition that spending reductions are included, a plurality support including entitlement reform in the requirements.

Here are the details:

Now that Osama bin Laden is dead, what are your views on the military operations in Afghanistan?

46% - I think we should stay and finish the job, no matter how long it takes

27% - I think we should finish the job, but set a time limit for our troop withdrawal

27% - I think we should pull our troops out immediately

While one might argue that the middle 27% represents some level of war fatigue, it's clear that grassroots conservatives strongly feel the U.S. should finish what it started out to do in Afghanistan.

With regard to the debt ceiling, a significant number of conservatives don't want to raise the limit on debt. No surprise there. But for respondents who agree with the GOP leadership's plan to demand cuts in exchange for raising the ceiling, a plurality - fully one-third of respondents - want to leave the military OUT of the cuts, but keep entitlements IN.

This is significant, since earlier this year, conservatives overwhelmingly preferred focusing on discretionary spending over entitlement spending. They began to warm to entitlement cuts around about March.

Republicans have demanded that any increase to the federal debt ceiling be coupled with spending cuts. Which best reflects your view?

44% - I don't think we should raise the debt ceiling

33% - We should cut discretionary domestic programs and entitlement spending, but not military spending, as conditions for raising the debt ceiling

18% - We should cut military spending, discretionary domestic programs, and entitlement (Medicare, Social Security) spending as conditions for raising the debt ceiling

5% - We should only cut discretionary domestic program spending as a condition for raising the debt ceiling

The fact that grassroots conservatives show a greater interest in cutting BOTH entitlements AND discretionary spending, rather than discretionary spending alone, suggests a growing awareness of the fiscal threat entitlements pose.

Raising Cain: The pizza man bounces high after the first debate, Trump began tanking before he fired himself – these and more results from today’s Daily Caller – ConservativeHome 2012 Tracking Poll

Ryan Streeter
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The first GOP debate, at which Tim Pawlenty arrived as the only serious contender, was a national springboard for Herman Cain. He was selected by the Fox News post-debate focus group as the winner, and that surely helped him in our poll.

He bounced out of nowhere to tie Chris Christie as respondents’ top pick in 2012. Since Christie has indicated he’s not running, that gives Cain the top spot among those who are (as with past polls, we have left Christie in for comparison and because he has not issued an official statement saying he won’t run).

The results below from our most recent Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll come from a sample of 871 conservative Republicans who were polled from May12-14. For this reason, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump remain in the results, since they made their announcements about not running after we fielded the poll.

Their inclusion – and especially Trump’s inclusion – is interesting. The Donald was clearly dropping fast after he hit his popularity peak. Our previous survey was fielded at the height of his media moment. Those who thought him most electable dropped from 15% to 6% of respondents in the past two weeks.

Gingrich saw a boost in his numbers. This is likely owing to the fact that he announced his candidacy just as we fielded the poll. Voters' support of Romney as a top pick for President has dropped slightly since our early April poll, and his electability numbers have dropped even more.

Finally, our poll suggests that Cain’s rise pulled from Huckabee and Bachmann slightly. It’s difficult to say if his rise is related to Trump’s decline, or if Trump’s decline has more to do with a fading new car smell.

Who do you think is most electable in 2012?

Who would be your first pick for President in 2012?

Who would be your second pick for President in 2012?

The 871 respondents in this poll were taken from the Republican Panel, assembled by YouGov for ConservativeHome.

Chris Christie and Paul Ryan for President! The biweekly Daily Caller-ConservativeHome 2012 presidential tracking poll shows a lot of support for those who probably won't be running in 2012

Ryan Streeter

The biweekly Daily Caller-ConservativeHome 2012 GOP Presidential tracking poll shows some remarkable enthusiasm for a couple of people who most probably will not be running – namely, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan. We included them to add a comparative perspective and because they haven’t officially said they won’t run.

To us, the strong showing by Christie and Ryan suggests widespread dissatisfaction with the current field among conservatives. Respondents are attracted to non-sound-bite, straight-talking candidates who seem tough enough to deal with today’s big issues. The top 8 candidates for each of the 5 questions we asked this week are listed below.

• Christie and Trump continue to register high numbers across the board.

• Ryan gets noticeably high marks for someone who only appeared on the national, outside-the-beltway scene fairly recently. He ties Huckabee on the question of whom respondents plan to vote for, and on questions about the economy and spending in Washington, he fares especially well as a newcomer. This is the first time we have included him in the tracking survey.

• Michele Bachmann’s recent less-than-subtle signals about 2012 have also benefitted her. She now tops Sarah Palin in electability and trails her narrowly as a favorite candidate.

• Our poll is unique because we ask about (1) who people think is most electable, (2) whom they plan to vote for (because the two aren’t always aligned, i.e., a respondent may think Romney is most electable but plans to vote for Palin), and (3) who their second choice is (the second-choice question is new). Adding (3) worked well for Bachmann: 15% selected her as their second choice.

In the Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll, we have chosen to include individuals who, despite saying they are not running, have not officially declared as much. This, to us, helps us gauge public sentiment about all potential candidates, even if some are unlikely candidates. Those who have officially said they aren’t running (Mike Pence, John Thune) are no longer on the list. Barbour issued his statement after we had fielded the current poll, so we'll remove him next time.

Here are the top eight for each question (nine if there was a tie for 8th place). Since we round up or down, those tied are listed in the order they came in by tenths of a percent rather than alphabetically.

Who do you think is most electable in 2012?

• 19% - Chris Christie
• 18% - Mitt Romney 
• 15% - Donald Trump
•   9% - Mike Huckabee
•   6% - Michele Bachmann
•   5% - Paul Ryan
•   5% - Newt Gingrich
•   4% - Sarah Palin
•   4% - Tim Pawlenty

Who would be your top pick for President in 2012?

• 16% - Chris Christie
• 12% - Donald Trump
•   9% - Mitt Romney
•   9% - Sarah Palin
•   9% - Newt Gingrich
•   8% - Michele Bachmann
•   7% - Paul Ryan
•   7% - Mike Huckabee

Who would be your second choice for President in 2012?

• 15% - Michele Bachmann
• 12% - Chris Christie
• 10% - Mike Huckabee
•   9% - Mitt Romney
•   8% - Sarah Palin
•   7% - Donald Trump
•   7% - Newt Gingrich
•   6% - Paul Ryan
•   6% - Herman Cain

 Who would you trust most as President to get the economy growing again?

• 26% - Donald Trump
• 14% - Mitt Romney
• 12.5% - Chris Christie
• 10% - Paul Ryan
•   7% - Newt Gingrich
•   6% - Sarah Palin
•   5% - Herman Cain
•   5% - Ron Paul
•   5% - Michele Bachmann

 Who would you trust most as President to get Washington spending under control?

• 19% - Chris Christie
• 14.5% - Donald Trump
• 13.5% - Paul Ryan
• 11% - Michele Bachmann
•   9% - Ron Paul
•   7% - Newt Gingrich
•   7% - Sarah Palin
•   5% - Mitt Romney

Check out the first and second Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking polls, too.

This week’s tracking poll was conducted with 785 members of the Republican Panel, assembled by YouGov for ConservativeHome.

Grassroots conservatives are more excited about the Ryan budget than when it was released, and they are ready to give up their mortgage interest deduction for lower tax rates

Ryan Streeter

Good news for reformers: grassroots conservatives are ready to play hardball on tax reform.

This week, we asked our Republican Panel, a group of self-identified conservative Republicans, about their views on tax reform. Specifically, we asked if they would be willing to give up their deductions and exemptions (including the mortgage interest deduction) in the tax code for lower rates. This kind of tax reform is at the heart of the Ryan budget, as well as other conservative approaches to deficit reduction.

Here is how they responded:

Many are talking today about tax reform. Do you support lowering tax rates but eliminating most deductions and exemptions in the tax code, including the mortgage interest deduction?

• 50% - yes
• 34% - no
• 17% - I don't know

Fifty percent support for fundamental tax reform among conservatives is a good start.

Next, we gauged enthusiasm for the Ryan budget. Currently, GOP members are taking a lot of heat back home for the budget’s proposed reforms to Medicare. Those who voted for the budget (all but four House Republicans) should take heart from our poll: enthusiasm for the budget is high. A plurality of respondents are more excited now about the budget than when it was released.

Are you more or less excited about Paul Ryan’s budget since he released it?

• 41% - more excited
• 31% - just as excited now as I was then
• 10% - I wasn't excited then and am not excited now
• 10% - I don't know
•  7% - less excited

The Republican Panel is comprised of conservatives who place a premium on spending cuts. They have not, to date, been especially enthusiastic about entitlement reform as a solution to the deficit, and yet they are widely supportive of the Ryan budget – which contains significant Medicare reforms.

The appetite for change among Republicans is significant and should provide encouragement for the Ryan-esque reformers in the GOP.

The current poll was conducted with 775 members of the Republican Panel, assembled by YouGov, between April 21-25, 2011.

Are you enthusiastic about the Republican 2012 contenders for the White House? Grassroots conservatives and conservative insiders disagree

Ryan Streeter

Donald Trump’s light has been shining brightly ever since he surprised us with a second-place tie in the NBC/WSJ poll last week.

The media has shifted its attention from Sarah Palin to Michele Bachman, even if the former still outperforms the latter in the polls.

Newt’s numbers still remain fairly high, and Huckabee’s even higher – despite all kinds of reasons why neither will win.

Tim Pawlenty’s admirable video launch captured less attention among voters than political observers, and he remains surprisingly unknown.

Mitt Romney stays ahead of the pack, however much he doesn’t enthuse voters.

The 2012 GOP field of potential White House contenders is, if anything, less congealed than it was a month ago. No one knows what to think at this point.

We decided to gauge enthusiasm for the 2012 field by asking the grassroots conservatives who comprise our Republican Panel and the conservative insiders who comprise our ConservativeHome100 panel the same question:

How enthusiastic are you about the line-up of potential Republican candidates for President in 2012?

Conservative insiders and influencers – columnists, political advisers, congressional chiefs of staff, activists – are not nearly as enthused about the 2012 field as the grassroots. While 56% of the grassroots are either “very enthusiastic” or “somewhat enthusiastic,” only 22% of conservative insiders register any enthusiasm. Of the 22%, all were in the “somewhat” category; zero insiders said they were “very” enthusiastic.

One shouldn’t conclude that the grassroots are overwhelmingly enthusiastic, however. One in five (22%) are either somewhat or not at all enthused. Insiders are even more unenthused, though: 37% say they are either somewhat or not at all enthused.

With 41% of the insiders saying they are neither enthused or unenthused, their position might best be described as hedging their bets or reserving judgment.

My takeaway from this:

• Insiders have a good sense of what electability requires. Their lack of enthusiasm suggests that those in the mix don't have what it takes to beat Obama in 2012.
• The grassroots reflects popular appeal. The fact that the grassroots are more optimistic suggests that some aspect of the current field excites them, and that matters for something. Since we didn't define the field, we don't know if their optimism reflects Trump's surge or an underlying confidence in Romney or whatever. But what's clear is that some level of appeal is registering at the grassroots that isn't among establishment Republicans.

Message to GOP leaders: Conservative voters aren't interested in spending cuts alone; they also want you to get going on the economy

 

Ryan Streeter

Grassroots conservatives who make up our Republican Panel are significantly pessimistic about the economy. In our latest poll a majority believe the economy is in worse now than it was in 2010.

Republicans need to get the budget resolved and focus on an intelligible economic program that people can articulate and understand.

When we asked respondents, “Do you think the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago?” more than a third (34.2%) said “A lot worse.” Nearly two-thirds (65%) think the economy is worse now than it was one year ago.

Do you think the economy is better or worse than it was one year ago?

• Much better:             0.5%
• Somewhat better:      10%
• It’s the same:          24.5%
• Somewhat worse:   30.8%
• A lot worse:             34.2%

In our latest poll, respondents listed getting the economy back on track as the second-most important factor behind fixing the deficit when it comes to what they are looking for in a 2012 GOP presidential candidate.

Respondents in the Republican Panel are largely sympathizers with the Tea Party, and roughly one-third say they are Tea Partiers. Consistently over the past few months, they have prioritized spending cuts, but they have also prioritized the economy and jobs.

Keeping the government open with a budget compromise, followed by several weeks of promoting the Ryan budget and an intelligible economic program, will go a long way with conservative voters. They don’t only care about spending.

Daily Caller-ConservativeHome 2012 Presidential Tracking Poll: Just because voters think Romney is most likely to win doesn't mean they plan on voting for him

In the second Daily Caller-ConservativeHome tracking poll, we learn that grassroots conservatives think Mitt Romney is the most likely GOP presidential hopeful to win in 2012…but that doesn’t mean they plan on voting for him.

Similar to our first tracking poll a couple weeks ago, in which 27% said they thought Romney was the most likely of all potential GOP candidates to win in 2012, 29% say the same this week.

However, when asked who they are most likely to vote for, only 13% name Romney. By comparison, only 6% think Sarah Palin can win, but 11% say they would likely vote for her. See Figure 1 below.

The full March results can be seen here. The full results for this week can be found here.

In the March poll, we asked six questions: who voters like the most; who is most likely to win; who is the most conservative; who will do the best on the economy; who will do the best on spending; and who will do the best with our military engagements overseas. This week, we asked the same six questions and added a question about who voters were most likely to vote for in order to compare voter intent with their views of who was most likely to win.

Over the past few weeks, voters’ preferences have remained fairly constant. However, two findings stand out:

1. Tim Pawlenty formally announced his candidacy since the first poll, in which 6% of conservatives said they thought he was the most likely to win in 2012. This week, the figure rose to 11%. It appears his announcement boosted voters' opinion of him. See Figure 2 below.
2. Donald Trump has been fairly visible the past few weeks, which may explain his rise in every category (compare the March and April results). Most notably: the percentage of those thinking he is most likely to win rose from 5% to 9%, and those thinking he’s most competent to manage the economy rose from 14% to 17%. Even more people think he’s the most conservative: he rose from 2% to 7% in that category.

Two additional points are worth a mention:

• Huckabee scores lower in our poll than in some other polls out there. We suspect this may be the result of leaving Chris Christie in the mix. Despite his denials about running, Christie hasn’t officially pulled himself out as Mike Pence and John Thune have, and so we’ve left him on the list as a gauge of voter sentiment. Were we to pull him out, Huckabee (and others) would likely see a boost.

• Romney the Competent, not Romney the Inspirational, takes the lead: Only 9% say they like him the most (compared to 16% for Christie and 13% for Palin), and only 13% say they are likely to vote for him, but 29% think he’s got what it takes to win. Romney doesn’t enthuse conservative voters, but the 29% figure is a statement of how they view his odds compared to the others  - even those they like more and want to vote for.

Figure 1

 

Figure 2

The Daily Caller article on today's poll can be read here.

The poll was conducted with 570 members of the Republican Panel, assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov.

On the eve of Paul Ryan’s budget, grassroots conservatives remain anxious about the deficit but think spending cuts are the way forward

This week’s Republican Panel, our survey of grassroots conservatives, sheds some interesting light on how conservative voters are thinking about the deficit and spending cuts as we anticipate the GOP budget next week.

Grassroots conservatives care more about cutting the deficit than anything else right now. When we asked respondents what they were most looking for in the GOP candidate for President in 2012, they answered an individual able to make the tough choices to fix our deficit. 

Fixing the deficit matters more than the ability to cut spending or to get the economy back on track (see graphic far below).

And what do they think is the most important thing Washington needs to do to fix the deficit? Answer: Cut spending across.

Fixing entitlements hardly registered as a solution to the deficit…although it registered a bit higher than the last time we asked the question.

We asked identical questions this week to those we asked in January about what Congress should do to address the deficit. Here is a comparison:

 

Conservatives are less willing to cut from the military, perhaps because of the activity in Libya. More prefer a balanced budget amendment. And, those thinking we should fix entitlements has doubled – from 3% to 6%.

This suggests, perhaps, that the message about entitlements’ relationship to the deficit has been more widely understood. But, in the end, it’s clear that people still think that we can fix the deficit mainly by cutting spending.

Here is what grassroots conservatives think are the most important qualities for the GOP candidate in 2012:

• 40% - Ability to make the tough choices needed to fix the deficit:     
• 27% - Ability to get the economy back on track                              
• 25% - Ability to cut spending in Washington                                     
• 5% - Ability to deal with immigration problems
• 1.5% - Ability to succeed on social issues
• 1% - Ability to bring gas prices down
• 1% - Ability to manage military engagements overseas

This week, ConservativeHome polled 567 conservatives identified by YouGov for our Republican Panel.

First Daily Caller-ConservativeHome 2012 Presidential Tracking Poll: Gingrich, Christie, and Romney all look strong

Today’s poll marks the first of a new biweekly 2012 presidential tracking poll cosponsored by ConservativeHome and the Daily Caller.

The tracking poll asks conservative Republicans their views of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates. Respondents are part of the ConservativeHome Republican Panel, which has been assembled by YouGov. They are likely primary voters, 70 percent of whom have donated time or money to candidates for public office.

We presented respondents with a list of potential candidates, and asked six questions. Here are the top five for each question we asked:

Who do you like the most?

1. 15% - Chris Christie
2. 14% - Sarah Palin
3. 12% - Newt Gingrich
4. 10% - Mitt Romney
5.   9% - Michele Bachmann

 Who is most likely to win in 2012?

1. 27% - Mitt Romney
2. 15% - Chris Christie
3. 12% - Newt Gingrich
4. 10% - Mike Huckabee
5.   6% - Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty (tie)

 Who is the most conservative?

1. 19% - Michele Bachmann
2. 16% - Sarah Palin
3. 14% - Ron Paul
4. 11% - Newt Gingrich
5.   7% - Chris Christie

Who would do the best job on the economy?

1. 16% - Chris Christie
2. 15% - Mitt Romney
3. 14% - Donald Trump
4. 10% - Newt Gingrich
5.   7% - Sarah Palin

 Who would do the best job keeping Washington’s spending under control?

1. 20% - Chris Christie
2. 11% - Newt Gingrich
3. 10% - Ron Paul and Sarah Palin (tie)
4.   9% - Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump (tie)

 Who would do the best job handling the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

1. 25% - John Bolton
2. 24% - Newt Gingrich
3.   7% - Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (tie)
4.   6% - Mike Huckabee

Newt Gingrich is the only individual to appear with double digits in each of the 6 categories.

Chris Christie is the only individual to garner 15% more than twice (he was above 15% in 4 categories). Romney was above 15% twice. Bolton, Gingrich and Palin were each above 15% once.

Respondents were able to make selections from the following list:

• Michele Bachmann
• Haley Barbour
• John Bolton
• Herman Cain
• Chris Christie
• Mitch Daniels
• Newt Gingrich
• Mike Huckabee
• John Hunstman
• Gary Johnson
• Sarah Palin
• Ron Paul
• Tim Pawlenty
• Rick Perry
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum
• Donald Trump

For the next tracking poll, we will add Buddy Roemer. We have kept Chris Christie on the list, despite his denials about running, for the sake of comparison (and in unlikely event he changes his mind!).

The poll consisted of responses from 736 members of the Republican Panel.

New poll: Grassroots conservatives warming to entitlement reform, but still wary of making the big changes

Ryan Streeter

In this week’s Republican Panel, ConservativeHome’s poll of self-described conservative Republicans, we find general support for making some of the changes necessary to reform Social Security and Medicare.

Respondents in the weekly poll have regularly supported making big spending cuts in Washington by overwhelming margins. However, when asked about reforming entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security, they have been less supportive in the past.

For instance, when asked what Congress should be doing to reduce the deficit, over half said spending cuts while a miniscule 3% said entitlement reform.

And when asked if they themselves would be willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits and to receive fewer benefits the wealthier they were, only a little more than a third said yes to both, while one in five opposed both. This suggests when asked about entitlement reforms in a personal way (“Would you be willing…”), support for reform drops.

This week we asked a question about entitlement reform this way:

Republicans in Congress plan to introduce reforms to Medicare and Social Security in their budget this spring. Please check the box beside reforms that you support. Leave boxes unchecked if you DO NOT support the specific reform. [Note: Assume that the reforms listed below would not apply to anyone over age 55. Any feasible proposal will allow those at least 55 and over to stay in the current programs.]

The results show a healthy level of support for reform overall.

• 79% support allowing private savings accounts into which people can deposit some of their Social Security payroll taxes, if they choose
• 70% support raising the retirement age
• 51% support means-testing the programs (e.g., phase out benefits the wealthier the recipient)
• 39% support converting Medicare into a defined contribution program (i.e., a recipient receives a fixed amount each year from the government to use on health care, rather than having the government pay whatever amount of health care a recipient consumes, as is now the case)

 
Three observations:

1. Support is highest for the least consequential reform and lowest for the most consequential reform, so Republicans have some work to do. Private Social Security accounts should be central to a effort to reform Social Security, but they will have the smallest effect on cost-control. Defined contributions, which are central to Paul Ryan’s Roadmap, for instance, will have the greatest effect on cost control. This may simply be an issue of public communication and voter education.
2. Support is higher for raising the retirement age when reforms are de-personalized. 70% support raising the retirement age, but in a previous poll, when we asked “Are you willing to work until 70 before receiving benefits?” only 52% said yes. Having clarified in the question that reforms would not apply to people over 55 may have also boosted support.
3. Support for means-testing, while at 51%, is uncomfortably low among conservatives. The most likely reforms to find bipartisan support would be raising the retirement age and means-testing benefits. If only half of conservatives support the latter, we can expect much lower support among liberals, meaning that political resistance to the idea could be rather fierce.

We also asked respondents how pleased they are with how Republicans have been doing so far this year:

• 55% - Somewhat pleased
• 14% - Very pleased
• 13% - Neither pleased nor displeased
• 14% - Somewhat displeased
•   4% - Very displeased

These figures should be welcome news to Republicans. For grassroots conservatives who place a high value on spending restraint, the Republicans’ efforts on spending reduction have clearly created a favorable impression.

Knowing that respondents favor spending cuts by overwhelming margins, we asked this week about how closely those polled identify with the Tea Party:

• 58% - I sympathize with the Tea Party but don't consider myself a Tea Partier
• 35% - I’m a Tea Partier
•   4% - I don't sympathize with the Tea Party but I don't really have anything against it
•   2% - I really distrust the Tea Party
•   1% - I don't care for the Tea Party

This poll of the Republican Panel, which was assembled for ConservativeHome by YouGov, was conducted March7-9, 2011 among 734 conservative Republicans.