Michigan polling points to a toss-up

• Romney 36%, Santorum 33%, Paul 12%, Gingrich 9% - Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone
• Santorum 38%, Romney 34%, Paul 12%, Gingrich 7% - CBS
• "It’s clear that Mr. Santorum’s position had deteriorated some from last week, when a series of polls gave him a lead of about 7 percentage points, on average." - Nate Silver

What if Romney wins?

"Republican strategists say that although they would restore Romney to front-runner status in the race, they could still leave the party looking at a long nomination battle. They also say that winning both states Tuesday wouldn’t be enough to resolve many of the doubts that still surround Romney. ... Even if Romney were to win Michigan and Arizona, he will face a difficult landscape on Super Tuesday, March 6. A victory in Michigan would boost his prospects in Ohio, but Santorum, who is from neighboring Pennsylvania, is a serious threat there." - Washington Post

The negative campaign moves to Michigan

"So with the Arizona debate over, the increasingly contentious campaign moves to Michigan, where Romney has been running ads attacking Santorum, and on Thursday Santorum introduced two new ads attacking Romney. The first hit Romney for supporting Wall Street bailouts and "turning his back on Michigan workers."" - Byron York

Team Romney's anti-Santorum strategy: paint him as a Washington insider

"And now, team Romney sees a lucky break in swatting away the latest would-be alternative to his candidacy, banking that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has exposed himself as a Washington insider incapable of delivering the jolt so many Republicans believe the political system needs." - Washington Examiner

Is there an alliance between Ron Paul and Romney?

"Rick Santorum’s campaign suggested that there may be a covert alliance between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, especially in view of their behavior at the debate in Arizona. ... there does seem to be something, prima facie, to their conduct during debates, if one assumes that the alliance would preclude Paul from criticizing Romney in debates. In the previous seven debates, going back to the January 7 New Hampshire debate, Ron Paul has only attacked Mitt Romney once." - National Review

What Democrats can learn from Santorum

"Santorum’s detractors cite his unusual opinions on the politics of gender and “artificial birth control” to paint him as extreme. But the source of Santorum’s appeal is his skill at waging class warfare, Republican-style. His grandfather was a coal miner, he explains: “Those hands dug freedom for me.” He wants to revive real jobs—blue-collar jobs—with zero corporate taxes on manufacturing. He’s a Pennsylvania guy who’s OK with declaring trade war on China." - Clive Crook

• "“I’ve been playing this little game with my friends. It’s called ‘Guess which seven states Santorum can win,’” said veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, who thinks Santorum’s stances against abortion, contraception and stem cell research make him a no-sale to women voters in all parties. “Here’s the seven. OK, there’s Utah, Idaho, a Dakota, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama. What’s that? Six? Okay — Texas? … Wait. I’m not 100 percent sure he can win Texas.”" - Politico

Gingrich faces questions over travel payments - WSJ

Not again: a Republican not currently running could STILL win the nomination - Washington Examiner

Former Gov. Buddy Roemer leaves GOP race to run on third-party platform - RCP

Democrats have most to lose in 2012 gubernatorial elections

"While Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is highly vulnerable, Democrats are facing a fierce primary to recall him. And in four other gubernatorial races, Democratic incumbents are retiring, leaving open seats in competitive states like North Carolina and Montana." - More from Politico, including details on the individual races

Boehner may scale back highway bill amid Republican opposition

• "House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) may significantly scale back his signature transportation bill in the face of opposition from conservative and centrist members of his own party... The move would be seen as a dramatic retreat for the Speaker, who has trumpeted the $260 billion legislation as a jobs priority" - The Hill
• "According to a GOP aide, Boehner is considering shortening the bill to two years and scrapping a plan to separate transit and highway funding, a plan that led to a moderate revolt within his conference. The retooled bill could also include new cuts to spending as a potential fig leaf to conservatives within the party." - Roll Call

Poll: 50% now say Obama doesn’t deserve reelection - Hot Air

Obama slams energy critics... but campaigned on lower energy prices himself in 2008

"It's the easiest thing in the world to make phony election-year promises about lower gas prices," Obama told a crowd at the University of Miami. "What's harder is to make a serious, sustained commitment to tackle a problem that may not be solved in one year or one term or even one decade."" - LA Times

• "President Obama is taking heat from the right for rising gas prices, but it wasn't so long ago that Obama on the attack over high oil prices. The six ads below highlight the extent to which Obama went to campaign on lowering gas prices for the average American and ending our dependence on foreign oil." - BuzzFeed

Obama apologizes to Afghanistan for Quran burning  - CNN

• "GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich said Thursday a U.S. apology to Afghan authorities for burned Qurans on a military base was “astonishing” and undeserved." - Washington Post
• More Afghan cuts, more war - Max Boot

Comedian Bill Maher gives $1m to Obama Super PAC - Politico

David Brooks: America is not that different to Europe

"We Americans cherish our myths. One myth is that there is more social mobility in the United States than in Europe. That’s false. Another myth is that the government is smaller here than in Europe. That’s largely false, too. The U.S. does not have a significantly smaller welfare state than the European nations. We’re just better at hiding it. The Europeans provide welfare provisions through direct government payments. We do it through the back door via tax breaks." - David Brooks

Maryland Senate passes same-sex marriage bill - Washington Post

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